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Nvidia has almost recovered all of its DeepSeek losses

A whopping $593 billion worth of market capitalization was wiped from Nvidia in a single day in January, as doubt turned to fear and fear turned to panic over the sudden emergence of Chinese AI chatbot DeepSeek, which appeared to threaten the soaring demand for semis and chips to power the AI revolution. Now, almost all of that value has been restored.

At the time of writing, shares in Nvidia are changing hands for $141 and change in premarket trading, as investors bid up the company’s stock after the Presidents Day weekend. That’s just ~1% below the $142.62 closing price the day before the “DeepSeek freak” took hold, and ~5% below the stock’s record closing price of $149.43 (January 6, 2025).

Nvidia DeepSeek bounce
Sherwood News

Last week, the chip designer reclaimed its 50-day moving average for the first time since suffering those mammoth losses, as corporate earnings have showed that Big Tech still plans to spend hundreds of billions on high-powered chips this year.

The company’s earnings are expected on February 26 after the market close. Analysts are expecting the company’s rampant growth to continue, with sales expected to come in at $37.97 billion, up 72% on last year’s haul. EPS is expected to print $0.84.

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Nvidia spikes on report that the Trump administration is considering letting Nvidia sell its best Hopper chips to China

One big headline really can change price action.

Shares of Nvidia popped 2% after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is internally discussing the idea of letting Nvidia sell its H200 chips to China. These chips, unlike the H20, are not the nerfed versions that Nvidia designed specifically for sale to China, but rather are its best chips from its Hopper generation, which preceded Blackwell.

The president had mused about allowing Nvidia to sell Blackwell chips to China ahead of talks with Chinese President Xi in late October, but this item was reportedly axed from the agenda at the last minute, per The Wall Street Journal.

Nvidia’s success in 2025 has come despite, not because of, its China business. New export restrictions weighed on its ability to send H20 chips to the world’s second-largest economy. The company took a $4.5 billion impairment charge in its Q1 earnings related to this export ban, and said Q2 sales would have been $8 billion higher if these curbs were not in effect.

After Nvidia reached a deal with the Trump administration that restored its ability to ship that chip, China reportedly responded by banning its domestic technology companies from buying these semiconductors.

“Sizable purchase orders [for the H20] never materialized in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China,” CFO Colette Kress said on a conference call with analysts on Wednesday.

Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report, this headline had hit the wires:

*TRUMP: IF NVIDIA’S HUANG IS HAPPY, I’M HAPPY

Well, the CEO didn’t seem too thrilled by the market’s reaction to the chip designer’s strong Q3 results. Perhaps this will cheer him up.

Pharmaceutical Company Eli Lilly Headquarters

Eli Lilly jumps into the tech-dominated $1 trillion club

Lilly is crossing $1 trillion in market cap just as Wall Street is getting jittery over a potential AI bubble.

Airlines climb on falling oil prices as the US pushes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal

Oil prices fell on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures down more than 2% amid a US push for a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. The US has reportedly pitched a deal that would see Ukraine cede land to Russia and agree to never join NATO.

As the market repeatedly shows: what’s bad for crude is good for airlines, which stand to benefit from lower fuel costs. Shares of major US carriers are up on oil’s price action, with Southwest Airlines up more than 5% and the rest of the big four airlines — American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines — up more than 3%.

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