markets

David Crowther2/18/25

Nvidia has almost recovered all of its DeepSeek losses

A whopping $593 billion worth of market capitalization was wiped from Nvidia in a single day in January, as doubt turned to fear and fear turned to panic over the sudden emergence of Chinese AI chatbot DeepSeek, which appeared to threaten the soaring demand for semis and chips to power the AI revolution. Now, almost all of that value has been restored.

At the time of writing, shares in Nvidia are changing hands for $141 and change in premarket trading, as investors bid up the company’s stock after the Presidents Day weekend. That’s just ~1% below the $142.62 closing price the day before the “DeepSeek freak” took hold, and ~5% below the stock’s record closing price of $149.43 (January 6, 2025).

Nvidia DeepSeek bounce — Sherwood News

Last week, the chip designer reclaimed its 50-day moving average for the first time since suffering those mammoth losses, as corporate earnings have showed that Big Tech still plans to spend hundreds of billions on high-powered chips this year.

The company’s earnings are expected on February 26 after the market close. Analysts are expecting the company’s rampant growth to continue, with sales expected to come in at $37.97 billion, up 72% on last year’s haul. EPS is expected to print $0.84.

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Helena Cheng29m

Estée Lauder gets a glow-up after earnings beat, guidance hike

Estée Lauder shares are soaring after the beauty giant released Q3 earnings results that topped expectations and raised its full-year outlook, while also expanding its restructuring plan.

The key numbers:

Revenue of $3.71 billion (compared to analysts’ estimate of $3.69 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 (estimate: $0.65).

Estée Lauder also lifted its full-year earnings outlook to a range of $2.35 to $2.45 per share, up from $2.05 to $2.25 previously.

The bottom line is getting flattered by job cuts, with management increasing that target to as many as 10,000 roles, up from a prior range of 5,800 to 7,000, as part of a broader effort to streamline operations and shift toward faster-growing sales channels.

The rally comes after a tough stretch for the stock, which is down more than 20% year to date, with the results inspiring hope that its turnaround efforts will bear fruit.

CEO Stéphane de La Faverie said fiscal 2026 is “promising to be the pivotal year we intended,” with the company expecting to restore organic sales growth and expand margins for the first time in four years.

Amid these positive signals, Estée Lauder flagged risks from tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and potential disruptions tied to the Middle East.

FLASHBACK

Stocks like Dell, Intel, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Cisco are on fire.

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J. Edward Moreno3h

Moderna beats Q1 estimates and reaffirms full-year guidance

Moderna rose in premarket trading after it reported earnings results that beat Wall Street expectations and reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

For the first three months of 2026, the company reported:

An adjusted loss per share of $3.40, less than the $4.45 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet had expected.
Revenue of $352 million, more than the $236 million the Street was anticipating. About 80% of that came from outside the US, the company said.

For the full year in 2026, the company still expects:

Revenue to grow 10%. Currently, analysts are penciling in $2 billion in 2026 sales, which is about a 5% increase.

Moderna was tapped by the US government to quickly develop a vaccine for COVID-19 in 2020, a product that has seen its sales plummet, but remains the company’s main source of revenue.

Now, the company sees growth on the horizon this year, after the European Commission approved its combination vaccine for the flu and COVID-19 for adults ‌50 years and older. Indeed, Moderna said a growing share of its revenue is coming from international markets.

The company has had a harder time getting approval from the US Food and Drug Administration, though the agency said in February that it would reconsider its stand-alone flu vaccine.

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Chevron posts mixed Q1 results, as sales miss offsets big earnings beat

Chevron is modestly lower after posting mixed Q1 results, as investors wonder whether elevated oil prices and crack spreads will continue to buoy earnings in the quarters to come.

The key numbers:

Q1 revenue of $48.6 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $50.6 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.41 (estimate: $0.90).
Production of 3.86 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (estimate: 3.8 million).

The upside surprise in Chevron’s upstream (production) business more than offset underwhelming results in its downstream (refined) division.

Friday’s dip comes with Chevron outperforming most of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund as of 10:36 a.m. ET, with tumbling West Texas Intermediate futures weighing on energy stocks.

Chevron said earnings would have been better if not for “unfavorable timing effects” totaling about $2.9 billion, which included mark-to-market losses on derivatives and inventory accounting impacts, weighing on reported earnings.

“Despite heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions, Chevron delivered solid first-quarter performance,” CEO Mike Wirth said, citing strong US operations and production growth following the integration of Hess.

Ahead of these results, Chevron had also cautioned that supply may take time to respond to higher prices. Wirth also said in a CBS interview that restoring production is “not like turning on a faucet,” noting it can take “weeks and months, in some cases years” to bring disrupted fields and infrastructure back online.

The results also come as Wirth met with President Trump and other energy executives this Tuesday to discuss potential steps to stabilize oil markets in the event that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain limited.

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Matt Phillips4h

ExxonMobil Q1 results beat estimates as increased oil production in Guyana offset disruptions in the Middle East

Exxon rose early Friday after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results as increased oil production in Guyana helped offset disruptions in the Middle East.

The largest US energy company by revenue reported:

Q1 revenue of $85.1 billion vs. analysts’ $81.13 billion consensus expectation, per FactSet.
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.16 vs. the $0.98 analysts had predicted, according to FactSet. That was down from $1.76 a year earlier.
Global production of 4.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, roughly in line with Wall Street expectations. Guyana set a new quarterly production record of more than 900,000 gross barrels of oil per day, the company said.

Exxon Mobil had previously flagged that the Mideast war would disrupt its operations. In an SEC filing in April, the company reported that operations in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — which accounted for roughly 20% of its energy production in 2025 — had been upended by the war, saying that it expected the disruptions would cut energy production by roughly 6% in the first quarter, compared to Q4 2025.

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