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Oil slides and stocks tepidly rise after Trump says US-Iran war is nearing its end

Oil prices dropped on Tuesday morning, with front-month crude futures down more than 6%, as traders digested President Trump’s comments late Monday suggesting the US-Iran conflict may soon end — easing fears that have rattled global energy and stock markets over the past 10 days.

On Monday, Trump told CBS News reporter Weijia Jiang in a phone interview that the war is “very complete, pretty much.” He later tempered that somewhat at a separate press conference held at Trump National Doral in Miami, saying the conflict would end “very soon,” though not this week.

Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, markets have been experiencing relentless volatility: Brent crude surged to nearly $120 per barrel during Monday’s trading session, the highest intraday price since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Gas prices, which largely track crude, even breached the $3.50-per-gallon mark, with analysts and prediction markets eyeing the $4 mark as a real possibility if the conflict drags on.

Despite Tuesday’s pullback following Trump’s remarks, oil prices remain elevated, up roughly 50% since the start of the year as disruptions continue around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows.

After turning a deeply red day into a green one yesterday, equity traders continued to breathe a tentative sigh of relief. After the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 closed higher Monday, wiping out steep intraday losses, S&P 500 futures were modestly in the green early on Tuesday, while Europe’s STOXX 600 rallied ~2%.

As of 9:07 a.m. ET, however, S&P 500 futures have dipped 0.22% and oil has pared some of its earlier losses, following Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s warning that today would be the “most intense day of strikes inside Iran.”

Go Deeper: Why extreme oil price volatility sets off alarm bells for markets and the economy

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Max Knoblauch & Claire Yubin Oh1h

Nio just reported its first-ever quarterly profit in its Q4 results

Chinese EV maker Nio jumped in premarket trading on Tuesday after it reported solid top- and bottom-line results, booking its first-ever quarter of positive (non-GAAP) operating profits, some 1,251 million yuan ($179 million), on a quarterly basis.

Nio reported adjusted net earnings of $0.04 per share in Q4, beating the $0.02 loss per share expected by Wall Street analysts (compiled by FactSet).

The company booked $4.95 billion in revenue, also topping the $4.86 billion consensus estimate, and deliveries came in at 124,807, up more than 70% year on year.

Looking ahead, the company says that it expects deliveries of vehicles “to be between 80,000 and 83,000 vehicles” in Q1 — an acceleration in growth, with those figures implying annual rises of 90% and 97% from the same quarter of 2025. However, Bloomberg estimates suggest this figure might marginally disappoint — with analysts currently penciling in 88,700 deliveries for Q1 2026.

Celebrating its first quarter of profits, CFO Stanley Yu Qu cited the company’s “strong delivery and revenue growth, an optimized product mix, and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement initiatives” in its press release.

CEO William Bin Li also added, “Looking ahead to 2026, we will continue to invest decisively in our twelve full-stack core technologies, launch new models, enhance the commercial and operational capabilities of our battery swapping and charging network, and continue upgrading our sales and service network.” Nio shares climbed in late February after it announced that it had reached 1 million battery swaps — its alternative to fast charging — in less than a week amid the Lunar New Year holiday. This month, Nio’s Chinese rival BYD unveiled a fast-charging battery seen as a direct challenge to the EV maker’s swap station network.

US gas prices exceed $3.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2024

Prediction markets no longer see $4 gas as likely at the end of March, however.

Man pumping gas at Gas Station, Florida

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Claire Yubin Oh4h

TSMC grew its sales 30% year on year in January and February

Taiwan Semiconductor ticked higher in premarket trading on Tuesday after the chipmaker reported a 30% jump in sales for the first two months of 2026, compared to the year before.

A key supplier for AI industry giants like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, TSMC saw its combined January and February revenue grow to NT$718.9 billion ($22.6 billion), per its monthly revenue report, published early on Tuesday morning.

The company notched NT$317 billion in February alone, growing 22% from a year ago and decelerating from January’s 37% year-on-year growth. For the coming full Q1, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg are anticipating growth of 33% — suggesting a strong March will be needed to meet that figure.

Charles Shum, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, noted that the modest weakness in the first two months is more likely due to softer performance in smartphones and PCs, rather than cooling AI chip demand, as soaring memory prices put pressure on shipments.

Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks swing positive as Trump says the Iran war could be over soon

Stocks made a huge tech-led comeback while the price of crude oil slid.

Aberdeen Angus Bull

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What to look for in Oracle’s Q3 earnings

On Tuesday, Oracle will announce its third-quarter earnings, and all eyes are on the company’s massive AI data center build-out. Last month, the company told investors that it plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion to fund its ambitious capex plans.

With so much new spending, the company is reportedly looking to make steep job cuts — thousands of positions across the company — and may be freezing hiring in its cloud division.

Shares of Oracle are down by more than 20% since the start of the year. The stock is down about 56% from its 52-week high of $345.72.

The company’s big bet on AI is causing some concerns among investors, and Oracle has recently seen a wave of lowered price targets from analysts:

Jefferies: to $320 from $400.
Scotiabank: to $215 from $220.
Deutsche Bank: to $300 from $375.
Baird: to $200 from $300.

On Friday, shares dropped sharply on reports that OpenAI had pulled out of a planned expansion of the Stargate data center in Abilene, Texas. But OpenAI has since clarified that the decision to back out of plans for the expansion was just the result of shifting capacity to other data center sites under construction.

The company will announce its earnings after market close on Tuesday.

FactSet’s survey of analysts shows they expect earnings per share of $1.70 and revenue of $16.9 billion for Oracle’s third quarter. Cloud revenue is expected to be $8.76 billion, and all eyes will be on Oracle’s capex, which is expected to be $14 billion.

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