Markets
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Matt Phillips

Oklo up as analysts spotlight “permits progress”

Oklo shares crept up early Wednesday after reporting a wider-than-expected full-year loss Tuesday after the close.

The company isn’t well covered on the street, but a smattering of analysts spotlighted growing capex plans by the company — which not only has no profits, but no revenues — as a potential issue. On the other hand they gave credit to the nuclear power start-up for progress in securing key government permits and approvals.

Barclays [Price target of $82, "Overweight" rating]: “Oklo advanced its momentum with DOE approval of a nuclear safety design agreement for Aurora at INL, paving the way for 2028 operations. Management guided higher 2026–27 capex, strengthened fuel supply investments, and enters 2026 with an increase in liquidity.”

Citi [Price target $73.50, “Neutral/High Risk” rating]: “Despite strong execution, reaction may skew negative given higher than anticipated 4Q Opex, continued capital raise in Jan, and robust 2026 capex.”

Needham [Price target $73, “Buy” rating]: “The company did not disclose Aurora unit costs, FY2026 CapEx ($350–450MM) came in above expectations, and [Aurora/Idaho National Laboratory] timing shifted modestly to 2028. We lower our PT to $73 (from $135) on reduced outer-year deployment (~3 GW by 2035) and a lower multiple, but maintain Buy. Execution, cost visibility, and fuel supply remain key gating factors.”

As of December 31, 2025, the company was well capitalized to continue burning cash, reporting cash and marketable securities worth some ~$1.4 billion.

Oklo reports larger-than-expected full-year loss per share

Oklo reports larger-than-expected full-year loss per share

Barclays [Price target of $82, "Overweight" rating]: “Oklo advanced its momentum with DOE approval of a nuclear safety design agreement for Aurora at INL, paving the way for 2028 operations. Management guided higher 2026–27 capex, strengthened fuel supply investments, and enters 2026 with an increase in liquidity.”

Citi [Price target $73.50, “Neutral/High Risk” rating]: “Despite strong execution, reaction may skew negative given higher than anticipated 4Q Opex, continued capital raise in Jan, and robust 2026 capex.”

Needham [Price target $73, “Buy” rating]: “The company did not disclose Aurora unit costs, FY2026 CapEx ($350–450MM) came in above expectations, and [Aurora/Idaho National Laboratory] timing shifted modestly to 2028. We lower our PT to $73 (from $135) on reduced outer-year deployment (~3 GW by 2035) and a lower multiple, but maintain Buy. Execution, cost visibility, and fuel supply remain key gating factors.”

As of December 31, 2025, the company was well capitalized to continue burning cash, reporting cash and marketable securities worth some ~$1.4 billion.

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The Iran war is producing the sharpest spike in US gas prices since Hurricane Katrina

The average US national gas price jumped a little more than $0.05 to $3.84 on Wednesday, per the American Automobile Association, its highest level since September 2023.

While front-month West Texas Intermediate futures have come off the boil, down roughly 20% from their March 8 peak, front-month gasoline futures are trading about 2% shy of their 2026 peak as of 8:20 a.m. ET.

Prediction markets currently imply that gas prices will end the month near (but below) $4.30 per gallon.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Prices are up nearly 29% over the past 20 days, per AAA, making this the sharpest such rise in fuel costs in more than two decades.

Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in the US in late August 2005, was one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters in American history. The damage wreaked havoc on energy infrastructure in the region, prompting gas prices to jump above $3 per gallon by early September from less than $2.30 in early August.

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Tom Jones

Rocket Lab drops after announcing at-the-market offering to sell up to $1 billion of equity

What goes up must come down, and that’s exactly what's happened with Rocket Lab shares over the last day or so.

After a rally that saw the stock rise more than 10% on Tuesday, Rocket Lab shares came back down to earth in after-hours trading, after the company filed an offering that could see it sell as much as $1 billion in common stock over time. RKLB is down around 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday, as of 6:30 a.m. ET.

In the after-hours filing, the space company wrote that it would use proceeds from the offering to “fund future growth, including potential future acquisitions, and for general corporate and working capital purposes.” Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket, which will be key in any path to profitability that the cash-burning business may forge, was delayed again last month, sending shares down at the time.

RKLB was involved in a wider space, satellite, and drone stock surge yesterday, as investors rallied around the sectors amid the ongoing war in Iran. The FAA had also announced new streamlined launch licensing requirements which will affect companies like Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace, and SpaceX. Per the FAA, the new rule, dubbed “Part 450,” will:

reduce the number of times an operator needs an FAA license approval and allow one license for a portfolio of operations, different vehicle configurations and mission profiles, and even multiple launch and reentry sites.

That should cut down on the administrative burden on the industry more broadly.

markets
J. Edward Moreno

AI drone company Swarmer soars on IPO debut

AI drone software company Swarmer soared 520% on Tuesday, its first day as a public company, and shares continued to climb in premarket trading on Wednesday.

Swarmer sold 3 million shares at $5 each, raising ~$15 million in total and giving it an initial market cap of about $60 million. By the time the closing bell rang on Tuesday, it was worth $382.8 million, according to FactSet.

Swarmer makes AI software that allows operators to coordinate large fleets of unmanned drones. Its technology has been used on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the company’s IPO comes amid the ongoing conflict in Iran.

The company made $310,000 in revenue in 2025, down 6% on the prior year, while its total losses also ballooned from $2.1 million in 2024 to approximately $8.5 million in 2025.

markets
Matt Phillips

Oklo reports larger-than-expected full-year loss per share

Oklo, the revenue-free nuclear power start-up that more than tripled last year and became a favorite of retail traders, reported full-year results after the close of trading Tuesday. 

It reported: 

  • A full-year net loss per share of $0.72 vs. the $0.61 loss per share that Wall Street analysts expected for the year.

  • R&D expenses of $58.9 million vs. the $46.0 million consensus estimate, according to FactSet.

Earnings have not been a big driver of Oklo shares. After all, analysts don’t expect the company to generate consistent revenues until at least 2028. 

(The stock has tended to trade more on the company’s latest announcements about regulatory approvals and incremental steps toward generating revenue, such as those it made this morning.) 

This report seems unlikely to turn around the recent performance of the shares, which has been awful. Oklo was down slightly in the after-hours session on Tuesday.

Oklo has dropped roughly 60% from its all-time high, which it hit back in mid-October. That’s also when Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of unprofitable tech stocks — of which Oklo is a member — topped out, suggesting that Oklo’s ills have, at least, something to do with shifting market sentiment among investors toward long-shot tech bets, in addition to its own performance. 

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