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Opendoor rises as JPMorgan boosts earnings estimates following Q4 results

New CEO Kaz Nejatian said the cohort of homes purchased in October, his first full month running the company, is poised to be Opendoor’s most profitable October ever.

Luke Kawa

Opendoor Technologies is surging after its Q4 results showed the new management team’s plans to turn around the online real real estate company are bearing fruit.

Shares are up roughly 16% as of 9 a.m. ET after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 sales and adjusted EBITDA, along with guidance for a bottom-line loss in Q1 that included less red ink than Wall Street had feared.

While its Q1 revenue outlook disappointed, CFO Christy Schwartz attributed the anticipated 10% quarter-on-quarter decline to how aggressively older inventory had been cleared in Q4, with homes sold having surprised to the upside by 20%. As such, the company will use Q1 to “rebuild inventory with higher-quality homes that underpin our improved unit economics,” she said.

Early in the conference call, CEO Kaz Nejatian spotlighted the profitability of Opendoor’s October operations, which marked the first full month with him in charge of the company.

That month of home acquisitions, he said, “is on track to be the most profitable October cohort in company history,” based on its contribution margin, which is the how much Opendoor earns on the sale of homes following holding costs and selling costs as a share of revenue.

“We achieved this in the middle of the most aggressive market expansion in Opendoor’s history. Given that this isn’t really the strongest housing market, this performance I think shows a structural shift in how we operate, a shift that I genuinely think will be durable across macro cycles,” he said. “We are no longer a prop desk — we’re now a market maker.”

JPMorgan analyst Dae Lee kept an “overweight” rating and $8 price target on the stock in the wake of these results, while boosting adjusted EBITDA and earnings estimates for this year and the next. Lee also trimmed his top-line expectations for 2026 and 2027.

“We remain encouraged by leadership’s energy and believe OPEN’s transformation, product innovation, and speed will drive upside over time,” he wrote. “Near-term results reflect prior strategies, but reduced spreads and a tailored approach are already accelerating acquisitions and rebuilding volume.”

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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