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Luke Kawa7/18/25

Opendoor shares up big again after call volumes set records for three straight sessions

The surge in online real estate company Opendoor Technologies, which has already doubled this week, is a flows story: traders are looking to get in on the ground floor of a potential turnaround.

There is not a fundamental catalyst pushing shares higher. Instead, there is a belief in the potential for a series of fundamental catalysts, a hope that all the negatives had been more than priced in when it traded below $1, and/or just the thought that others will keep piling in that’s inspiring a heck of a lot of retail zest for the stock.

That flows story in the options market has been monumental for the stock relative to its history. The stock has set records for daily call volumes traded in back-to-back-to-back sessions. More call options have traded in the first four days of this week (1.7 million) than the six months before that (1.4 million).

And the enthusiasm for the underlying stock looks to be continuing: it’s up more than 12% in premarket trading, and is in the top 50 for value traded among all US stocks ahead of the open, ahead of much, much larger companies like Exxon Mobil, Oracle, Berkshire Hathaway, Costco, and Pepsi.

Even if the stock goes nowhere on Friday, it would still be far and away its best week ever, and it’s not particularly close.

Read more: Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson, architect of the eye-popping rally in Opendoor, on why he thinks the online real estate company is the “next Carvana”

The stock is still more than 95% off its closing peak. But it’s also clearly in the market — and public — consciousness in a way it’s never been before.

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Nvidia rises after Reuters reports that China has approved the sale of 400,000 H200 chips to Chinese tech firms

Nvidia rose around 1.6% in pre-market trading after Reuters reported that Chinese authorities have approved ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent to collectively buy more than 400,000 of the company's H200 chips, with other firms expected to seek approval in subsequent rounds.

Exclusive: China gives nod to ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent to buy Nvidia's H200 chips - sources

Exclusive: China gives nod to ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent to buy Nvidia's H200 chips - sources

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Luke Kawa & David Crowther2h

ASML rises on revenue beat and rosy topline outlook, outweighing slightly softer margins

Dutch semi equipment giant ASML’s strong start to the year looks set to continue after the company’s solid revenue beat, rosy 2026 guidance, and strong order book outweighed softer margins in the final quarter of the year. For Q4, the company reported:

Net sales: €9.718 billion (estimate: €9.57 billion). A 1.6% beat.

Adjusted earnings per share: €7.34 (estimate: €7.56). A 3% miss.

The guidance told a similar story, with stronger topline and a marginally softer margin outlook.

For the full year 2026, ASML management expects total net sales to be between €34 billion and €39 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%. Consensus estimates, as of 4 a.m. ET this morning, were expecting €35.1 billion, with an anticipated gross margin of 52.9%. At the midpoints of those ranges the guidance is solidly above on revenue, and a bit below on margin.

For the current quarter, ASML said sales would range from €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion, with the same gross margin profile as the full year (between 51% and 53%). Even the low end of that revenue guidance is above the Street’s forecasts, with Q1 consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg showing €8.1 billion in revenue.

The strength of demand for the company’s highly sought after extreme ultraviolet lithography machines was underscored in its bookings, one of the most closely watched figures in the industry, which came in at €13.2 billion in Q4 — a blowout compared to the €6.8 billion analysts were expecting.

The company also announced that it would be cutting about 1,700 jobs in the Netherlands and the US, representing about a 4% cut to its workforce, per Bloomberg.

ADRs of Europe’s largest publicly traded company pushed higher immediately after the print, although they have since pared some of those gains, currently up around 4.4% as of 4:25 a.m. ET. That upward jolt adds to a strong start to 2026, with the stock up 36% heading into this report. The longevity and magnitude of the AI boom is spurring massive capex spending not just by hyperscalers, but also from the chip companies that supply the brains behind this build-out.

ASML and other semicap companies offer equipment that enables chip companies to make more chips. The Dutch company’s extreme ultraviolet lithography occupies a particularly important chokepoint in chip development by etching designs onto tiny wafers.

Back in July, ASML rattled investors by warning that growth in 2026 couldn’t be guaranteed. These results, backlog, and guidance suggest that those fears won’t come to pass, to put it mildly.

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Texas Instruments soars as Q1 guidance exceeds estimates and CEO touts “a lot of room to go” on industrial recovery

Texas Instruments soared in after-hours trading as better than expected Q1 guidance outweighed a mediocre set of Q4 results.

The chipmaker sees current quarter sales ranging between $4.32 billion to $4.62 billion, the midpoint of which is slightly north of the consensus estimate for $4.42 billion. The outlook for earnings per share of $1.22 to $1.48 also compares favorably to Wall Street’s call for $1.26.

For Q4, sales of $4.42 billion were a tad below the consensus call for $4.43 billion, while earnings per share of $1.27 came in three cents light of the Street’s view. However, earnings per share included a six-cent hit that was not incorporated into the company’s guidance, Texas Instruments said.

Managing expectations had not been Texas Instruments’ strong suit as of late: the stock sank after the firm reported Q3 results since Q4 guidance was weak. And during the conference call that followed Q2 earnings, three separate analysts remarked that CEO Haviv Ilan’s “tone” wasn’t too upbeat despite better than expected financials and decent guidance.

This time, the outlook and commentary is all sunshine and rainbows.

“The first quarter guidance is significantly stronger than seasonal,” remarked Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore. “And if my math is right, it seems like it's the first time you've guided up sequentially since right after the financial crisis 15 years ago, roughly.”

Ilan credited this to a persistent recovery in industrial demand, which accounts for about one third of the company’s sales.

“Remember that on the industrial market, we still have a lot of room to go when you think about the previous peaks,” he said. “So, if you will, the compare, it's still easy for industrial to continue to recover.”

And then, of course, there’s AI. Data center revenues are a small but briskly growing part of TI’s business, accounting for 9% of sales for the full year while surging roughly 70% year-on-year in Q4.

Seagate STX Earnings

Seagate beats expectations on sales and EPS

The guidance was strong, too.

Matt Phillips14h

Tasha Matsumoto

S&P 500 climbs to new all-time high ahead of Big Tech earnings

Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla will report after the bell tomorrow.

BKN-BULLS-JAZZ-JORDAN DUNK

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