Markets
A businessman with his head in the clouds.
Getty Images
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF a $1 Trillion market cap

Oracle’s insane cloud infrastructure forecast is giving shades of Nvidia’s data center business

But it’s just a forecast, of course.

Yesterday, Oracle posted arguably the most remarkable quarter of any tech giant this year, sending the stock up as much as 30% in after-hours trading. Actually, the quarter itself was unremarkable — it was the forecast for what’s to come that completely blew analysts away.

Not a household name like Google, Apple, or Amazon, Oracle has a swath of different specialties, providing software, servers, and cloud services to global businesses.

Oracle sankey - how it makes money
Sherwood News

That cloud portion — historically not a major driver of the company’s bottom line — is where Oracle is seeing growth explode, with the company expecting its “Cloud Infrastructure” revenue to rise to an eye-watering $144 billion in its fiscal year 2030. That’s up more than 14x on last year’s ~$10 billion haul.

As hockey-stick revenue projections go, that’s about as bold as they come in terms of sheer scale. If — and it is an if — the company hits that forecast, it will give shades of another AI enabler’s meteoric rise: Nvidia’s data center business, which saw its revenue increase from $6.7 billion in FY 2021 to $115 billion in FY 2025, with analysts anticipating more than $184 billion in data center revenue this fiscal year.

Oracle Vs. Nvidia
Sherwood News

For now, the insane revenue backlog that Oracle revealed, which was up 359% to $455 billion, is enough to be lifting the entire AI space.

At the time of writing, Oracle’s shares are 32% higher in premarket trading, putting the company’s market cap just shy of $900 billion. That’s making Larry Ellison, Oracle’s cofounder, worth an extra $70 billion or so — putting him within spitting distance of unseating Elon Musk as the world’s richest person.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

AMD jumps as Intel’s supply constraints offer chance for CPU market share gains

As investors react negatively to Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s warning that the chipmaker’s turnaround effort will be a “multiyear journey,” that cautionary note is also a reminder that Advanced Micro Devices has more time to make hay while the sun shines.

AMD had been one of the companies with the most to lose should attempts by the government and Nvidia to prop up the beleaguered chipmaker bear fruit. In particular, Intel and AMD are locked in a fierce competition in the CPU market. During its earnings call on Thursday, Intel said that supply constraints were preventing the company from realizing strong demand.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur thinks that gives AMD more room to continue to muscle in on Intel’s CPU turf.

“We still view Intel as being at risk of further share loss in its product businesses (particularly in server CPU given AMD’s strong product portfolio/roadmap and Intel’s supply constraints),” he wrote.

AMD is up nearly 3% as of 11:40 a.m. ET, working on its ninth straight day of gains. A positive close would match its longest winning streak since 2005.

markets

Spotify climbs following an upgrade from Goldman as it prepares to hike prices

Music streamer Spotify climbed about 3% on Friday following an upgrade to “buy” from “neutral” from Goldman Sachs.

The upgrade comes ahead of Spotify’s already announced US subscription price hike next month — its third since 2023. Goldman lowered its 12-month Spotify price target to $700 from $735.

“We are surprised how negative investor sentiment has turned with respect to [Spotify] on the back of the AI theme. In our opinion, we see SPOT as well-positioned to capitalize on/benefit from rising generative AI adoption,” Goldman said in its Friday note, adding that it’s watching how the rise of AI music platforms could impact Spotify and its music royalty payment structure.

Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley published a survey that found up to 60% of Gen Z respondents listen to AI music, for an average of three hours per week. Last week, Bandcamp announced it would ban AI music on its platform.

markets

Wall Street’s mood brightens on Nintendo as Switch 2 momentum builds

US-traded ADRs of Nintendo are up more than 4% Friday morning as markets turn more optimistic on the gaming giant.

Following the worst November in 30 years for American gaming console unit sales, Circana on Thursday reported that Nintendo’s Switch 2 saw a rebound in December. According to analyst Mat Piscatella, the popular handheld console’s unit sales are pacing 35% ahead of Sony’s PlayStation 4 seven months after release.

Analysts at Jefferies and Wolfe Research highlighted the strength of the console in recent notes, with Wolfe upgrading the stock from “underperform” to “peer perform.” Wolfe said it largely maintains its unit sales estimate of 20.5 million Switch 2s in the fiscal year ending in March.

On Friday, Japan’s central bank raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 0.7% to 1%, also potentially boosting the country’s major companies like Nintendo.

markets

Nvidia gains on report that Chinese officials told domestic tech champions to progress with plans for H200 imports

The “will Xi, won’t Xi?” of Nvidia’s quest to send AI chips to China got some positive news, reversing a string of recent negative reports.

Per Bloomberg, Chinese officials told leading domestic tech champions including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance that they can progress in their preparations to import Nvidia’s H200 chips, and “are now cleared to discuss specifics such as the amounts they would require,” citing people familiar with the matter.

Shares are up 1.5% as of 8:06 a.m. ET.

The outlet had previously reported that China would begin to allow H200 imports for commercial use “as soon as this quarter.” However, that was followed by reports from The Information, the Financial Times, and Reuters that Chinese companies’ ability to access these AI chips would be limited and that suppliers had paused production following what was tantamount to an import ban.

The seemingly conflicting reports from various outlets reflect the tug-of-war within the Chinese policy apparatus, which aims to balance competing priorities: bolstering its AI capabilities (which argues for using the best technology available, even if that’s from foreign sources) and supporting the development of its domestic semiconductor manufacturing industry (which pushes in the opposite direction).

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.