Outta juice
There might soon be a vitamin C-shaped hole in many Americans’ breakfasts: orange juice prices are hitting all-time highs, as a series of poor harvests strain the existing supply of frozen juice futures.
Indeed, while the price of OJ has climbed at an alarming rate in recent years due to reduced production yields, this week saw frozen concentrated orange juice futures — which, with a two-year lifespan, usually help manufacturers to ease harvest shortcomings from season to season — reach a record price of $4.87 per pound. That’s roughly 5x where they were trading in 2020.
These juiced-up figures have arisen from a blend of bad weather and disease that’s long plagued the world's orange groves. Brazil has now seen 3 consecutive heatwave-hampered harvests, squeezing the output of the world’s largest producer, which accounts for ~70% of all exports. Just 3 weeks ago, research center Fundecitrus reported that Brazil was set to produce 232M boxes of oranges in the 2024-25 season, a 24% decline on the previous cycle.
And Florida, world-renowned for its oranges, won’t be able to pick up the slack. The Sunshine State has seen output decline steadily for more than 2 decades, thanks to citrus greening, hurricanes, falling yields, and a booming housing market that’s turned citrus farms into premium real estate.
With the orange segment looking increasingly bleak, farmers are exploring using alternative fruits — like mandarins, apples, and mangoes — to supplement diminishing supplies, as consumer demand for OJ remains as strong as ever.
