Oscar Health whipsaws after preliminary Q2 earnings and guidance affirm it’s suffering just like Centene
Oscar Health shares are volatile this morning after the company released preliminary second-quarter results showing a big operating loss. Shares traded as much as 10% lower and as much as 8.7% higher in the wake of this news, and are currently down about 3% as of 8:20 a.m. ET.
Management expects a $230 million loss from operations in the three months ending June 30, while analysts had anticipated operating income of $55.5 million.
The preannouncement was prompted by “a review of 2025 Marketplace data (‘2Q Risk Adjustment Reports’) from Wakely, an independent actuarial firm, that analyzes paid claims submissions through April 30, 2025, for most Marketplace insurance carriers.”
It’s shades of Centene, another company with significant exposure to the ACA marketplace, which cratered and pulled Oscar down with it after pulling its 2025 guidance when Wakely’s data showed the assumptions underpinning its outlook were all wrong. The downdraft following that release at the start of the month led to Oscar Health erasing its year-to-date gains.
Per the Oscar Health press release:
“The analysis of the 2Q Risk Adjustment Reports, covering nearly 100% of Oscar’s geographic footprint, shows that overall ACA Marketplace risk scores, a measure of the average morbidity of the market, have increased by more than the Company’s prior estimates. Based on the reports, the Company now expects a medical loss ratio of 86.0% to 87.0% for full year 2025. Utilization by Oscar’s members remained elevated in the second quarter of 2025, however cost trends moderated as compared to the first quarter of 2025.”
In February, Oscar offered full-year guidance anticipating operating earnings of about $250 million. That’s now flipped to guidance for a $250 million loss. That’s driven by the aforementioned much higher outlook for its medical loss ratio, from around 81.2% to about 86.5% at the midpoint of the guidance. However, management does have a brighter view for revenues, expecting about $12.1 billion for the full year versus the prior view for $11.25 billion.
