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Pharma company Aurinia falls after FDA official uses LinkedIn to call out lupus drug

Lupkynis, which was approved in 2021, is Aurinia’s primary source of revenue.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals dropped on Monday after a Food and Drug Administration official criticized a method of evaluating drugs that was used to approve the companys flagship lupus medication.

George Tidmarsh, who has led the FDAs drug evaluation arm since July, said on LinkedIn that voclosporin, which is made by Aurinia under the brand name Lupkynis, has significant toxicity and has not been proven to benefit patients.

Specifically, he criticized the use of surrogate end points, which are indirect measures of patients health after taking a treatment that results in speedier trials. Tidmarsh said the FDA will be evaluating how it uses that kind of data for drug approval. Tidmarsh later deleted that post and in a subsequent post clarified that those were his personal views and not that of the FDA.

Screenshot 2025-09-29 at 3.57.01 PM
A screenshot of Tidmarsh's LinkedIn post. (Sherwood News)

Tidmarshs complete, since deleted LinkedIn post read:

CDER will be evaluating surrogate endpoints used for FDA approval. While there is no doubt that the use of such endpoints has benefited patients by bringing valuable treatments to patients sooner, there have been notable failures in confirmatory trials, such as those for exon skipping therapies in DMD. And for some diseases such as lupus nephritis, companies have not run trials to demonstrate a benefit on hard clinical endpoints like progression to end stage renal disease. So we have approved drugs with significant toxicity like voclosporin that has not been shown to provide a direct clinical benefit for patients. We will be taking a close look at the use of surrogate endpoints to see where we can further accelerate promising drugs faster while requiring companies to perform the trials necessary to confirm actual clinical benefit.

Lupkynis, which was approved in 2021, is Aurinias primary source of revenue. The company reported $235.1 million in sales last year, and analysts polled by FactSet have penciled in $270.5 million for 2025.

Aurinia fell as much as 21% after Tidmarsh’s post, and it ended the day down 16%.

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Cava may be an unlikely victim of a potential US government shutdown

Government shutdowns typically aren’t a big deal for the stock market as a whole.

But for Cava, which was founded in Maryland and is headquartered in Washington, DC, there’s the prospect of forgone sales in the event that government employees suddenly have no cause to frequent the fast-casual Mediterranean chain, which means emptier tills as bellies get filled elsewhere.

At the end of Q2, Cava had 398 locations. It currently boasts seven in the district proper, at least 14 a close drive away in Virginia, and 25 in Maryland.

Cava’s annual report singled out the Washington, DC/Maryland/Virginia metropolitan area as having “a high concentration of restaurants” in discussing risk factors for the company. And it may be a particularly bad time to be a slop bowl seller around the nation’s capital.

The potential shutdown would be the latest challenge for Cava as it struggles to stand out amid a myriad of lunch options for working professionals and following the recently announced departure of COO Jennifer Somers.

For what it’s worth, this is not the first time this year Cava has faced concerns about potential weakness in DC. During its Q1 earnings call, Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore questioned Cava’s leadership about a potential impact from DOGE given its “fairly big footprint” in the metro area, and at the time CFO Tricia Tolivar said the company hadn’t really seen evidence of metro-specific softness.

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Robinhood surges as prediction markets gain traction

Robinhood jumped to an all-time intraday record of more than $132 late Monday morning on growing optimism about the brokerage’s prediction markets business both on Wall Street and within the company’s own executive suite.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own stock as part of my compensation.)

Earlier in the day, Robinhood Chief Executive Vlad Tenev posted this tweet spotlighting that more than 4 billion event contracts have been traded on the platform since they began to be offered in February.

Analysts have also been focusing on the uptick in activity in the events contract business as a potential boon for the shares.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley published a note on Monday highlighting how trading volumes at prediction market company Kalshi soared to new records over the weekend as traders took positions on the outcomes of college and pro football games using event contracts.

Moley estimates that users at Robinhood — which partnered with Kalshi to offer contracts on games — account for between 25% and 35% of Kalshi’s daily event contract activity.

“We continue to expect HOOD will report ~2.5B of event contracts traded in 3Q25 which, at $0.01/contract, translates to ~$25M in revenue,” Moley wrote.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.