Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

Retail traders are driving off-the-charts volatility when companies release earnings

The increasing prominence of retail traders in dictating price action isn’t confined to just the world of meme stocks.

They’re also playing a key role in fueling how companies’ share prices behave at a time when every investor’s eyes are on them: upon the release of quarterly results.

“During this 2Q earnings season, retail investors frequently exhibited outsized trading behavior in stocks that experienced significant post-earnings price movements,” JPMorgan strategists led by Arun Jain wrote.

That is, substantial retail activity is associated with massive earnings reactions. The y-axis in the below chart tracks how many standard deviations JPM’s measure of retail buying is above or below its one-year average for a given stock.

JPM Retail Earnings Reaction
Source: JPMorgan

But it’s not always the case that retail is contributing to (or creating) the obvious trend in response to earnings. Sometimes the crowd is coming in with both hands to catch a falling knife in stocks that nosedived after reporting quarterly results.

While retail’s favorite name to buy was still Palantir over the last week, per JPMorgan, Eli Lilly, The Trade Desk, and CoreWeave jumped to near the top of the leaderboard as they seemingly “provided compelling ‘buy-the-dip’ opportunities following disappointing announcements.”

LLY TTD retail buying

As this has been playing out, Bespoke Investment Group observed that the typical (over?)reaction to earnings reports has been trending higher, reaching levels unseen outside of the global financial crisis.

Bespoke Earnings Reaction
Source: Bespoke Investment Group


“In the current day and age of easy, commission-free trading on brokerage apps available right on your smartphone, share-price volatility in reaction to stock-specific earnings news has moved increasingly higher,” analysts at Bespoke wrote. “At the same time, overall market volatility hasn’t seen a similar increase, which means that more and more of a stock’s overall performance is coming from the one trading day per quarter when it posts its financial results and forward guidance.”

So, in sum, retail traders are stepping up their activity in names that move on earnings at the same time that stocks are moving more than they used to on earnings!

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Paige Oamek

Lightwave Logic drops following Q1 earnings

Lightwave Logic released its Q1 earnings report Wednesday postmarket. The company reported increasing shortfalls as the photonics company continues to scale. Investors reacted by pushing the stock slightly down after-hours.

Here are the numbers: 

  • Revenue of $29,000, 27% growing year-over-year.

  • Net loss of $6.3 million, widening 34% year-over-year.

The material photonics company, which designs and provides polymers to speed the flow of information from chip to chip, hit a four-year high this week and has risen nearly 400% since January. Daily options volumes on the stock hit a record high ahead of this release.

The stock has been boosted by an explosion of AI data center demand and interest in the growing industry of photonic integrated circuits for data center connectivity.

On their afternoon earnings call, Lightwave Logic CEO Yves LeMaitre reiterated that he believes the company is "positioned to help address some of the most important challenges facing AI infrastructure over the coming decade."

markets
Helena Cheng

USA Rare Earth gains after delivering better-than-expected quarterly results

USA Rare Earth is rising in postmarket trading after releasing better-than-expected Q1 results.

Key numbers:

  • Revenue of $5.67 million (compared to analyst estimates of $4.22 million).

  • An adjusted loss per share of $0.12 (estimate: a $0.14 loss).

Management aims to achieve 3,000 metric tons per annum of run rate for metal-making and alloy capacity by year-end, along with 600 MTPA of run rate for magnet manufacturing capacity.

The results come during a period of unease in the global rare earth market. China previously moved to drastically curb critical mineral access in October, adding five new elements to its export controls and freezing supplies to semiconductor manufacturers. These materials may be on the agenda during discussions between US and Chinese leadership this week.

In response, the US has scrambled to build domestic production buffers. In January 2026, USA Rare Earth secured a landmark $1.6 billion government-backed package from the Department of Commerce, which included a $1.3 billion senior secured loan under the CHIPS and Science Act and $277 million in direct incentives in exchange for a 10% federal equity stake.

The company also announced a definitive agreement to acquire Serra Verde Group, owner of the Pela Ema rare earth mine and processing plant in Goiás, Brazil. The $2.8 billion acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

markets
Paige Oamek

Cisco surges on Q3 earnings beat and better-than-expected Q4 outlook

Cisco rose double digits after beating Q3 revenue and earnings estimates and giving optimistic projections due to increasing demand from the AI industry.

Shares were 13% higher in after-hours trading.

The tech company reported: 

  • Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $15.6 billion).

  • Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $1.06 (estimate: $1.04).

  • Q4 revenue guidance between $16.7 billion and $16.9 billion (estimate: $15.8 billion).

  • Q4 adjusted earnings guidance of $1.16 to $1.18 (estimate: $1.07).

Management upped its outlook for expected orders from hyperscalers this fiscal year to $9 billion from $5 billion.

Shares in the company have climbed more than 60% over the past calendar year and traded at record highs this week — surpassing $100 on Wednesday afternoon — fully riding the AI infrastructure wave. All these data centers need Cisco’s networking equipment as well as more from the likes of Arista Networks and HP Enterprise, both of which are being boosted postmarket from these results.

Chuck Robbins, chair and CEO of Cisco, said:

“Cisco is well positioned as the critical infrastructure for the AI era, building on our technology leadership and customer trust, while innovating at the speed and scale that our dynamic world demands.”

While demand for Cisco’s products has been climbing, the price of memory also remains elevated — which can create tension between booming sales and pressure on profitability.

Looking toward the full year, the company updated its outlook to expect revenue ranging between $62.8 billion and $63.0 billion, ahead of analysts’ estimates of $61.1 billion.

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