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Serial SPAC sponsor Chamath Palihapitiya (Etienne Laurent / Getty Images)

Return of the SPAC

Oh my god.

It looks like one of my favorite feats of financial engineering might be mounting a comeback. From The Financial Times:

New fundraising [for SPACs] has been improving slowly this year, rising about 20 per cent over the same period of 2023 to $3.1bn, according to Dealogic, and advisers are expecting activity to pick up pace. More than 20 Spacs have filed IPO documents since the start of June, targeting a combined $4.3bn in fundraising. That compares with just $1.8bn raised in the entire second half of 2023.

“There are over 1,300 unicorns out there, and the exit route on both the IPO side and the strategic M&A side has been closed,” said Jimmy Fang, chief operating officer at Spac sponsor Explorer Acquisitions. “Even in the hottest tech IPO market ever, you’re unlikely to get more than 150 IPOs in one year. What happens to the remaining companies? . . . I’m not saying SPACs will fill the entire void there, but I certainly believe they can fill a sizable amount.”

SPACs, obviously, got overhyped in 2020 and 2021, considering that everyone from NBA champion Shaquille O’Neal to former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan launched a SPAC, and as the market grew frothier, the quality of “businesses” going public in SPAC deals deteriorated.

Electric vehicle startups with no revenue, electric scooter startups with broken business models,  marijuana seller review platforms, and rare earth metal-based battery producers not expected to be cash flow-positive for six years all went public through SPACs, and, as you could guess, most didn’t perform too well in the public markets.

However, not every company that went public through a SPAC was a bad company. School bus manufacturer Blue Bird, IT infrastructure provider Vertiv, sports betting platform DraftKings, and potato chip maker Utz all went public through reverse mergers with SPACs, and they’ve fared quite well in public markets. The issue is less “SPACs” and more the quality of a company that looked to go public through a reverse merger with a SPAC.

SPACs provide an expedited IPO process with less regulatory hurdles than traditional IPOs. In 2021, the public market appetite for new listings was massive, so “good” companies had no trouble going public through an IPO, and the only companies willing to do a SPAC deal would have been those that couldn’t attract the investor interest needed to support a traditional IPO (for context, Blue Bird, DraftKings, and Vertiv all announced their deals well before the pandemic, and Utz announced its deal in June 2020, before valuations got crazy). Naturally, many of these companies had no business being public.

However, IPO markets are now frozen, many venture and private equity investors need exits to return capital to their investors, and many of their portfolio companies are either 1) worth more than $1 billion, 2) profitable, or 3) both. If the IPO market remains cold, SPACs could become an attractive alternative to get portfolio companies to the public markets.

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Luke Kawa

BlackBerry is on one of its hottest rallies of all time

History suggests that BlackBerry does extremely well when 1) it’s considered to be pioneering a transformative technology, or 2) there’s widespread retail enthusiasm for stocks.

If you squint (or dream), you could argue that both are going on right now.

Shares of the once-upon-a-time smartphone giant are up more than 160% over the past three months. The only times the shares have had a hotter run of form than this are at the tail end of the dot-com bubble, and in early 2021 when was it part of the meme stock craze headlined by GameStop.

Let’s start with the easy part first — here’s Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel, on retail’s significant footprint in the shares’ rally:

“Retail traders are the new price setters in the market. May volumes across our retail cash equities and options platforms are currently tracking at record levels. Daily volumes on our cash platform are setting new highs and are on pace to finish nearly ~10% above the previous record established during the January 2021 meme-stock era.”

And then there’s the harder part, part of the story that the traders bidding up BlackBerry now are dreaming about: the QNX division, which offers software that the company is positioning as an operating system for robots.

QNX’s software has early uptake in the field of autonomous driving, with BlackBerry eyeing a much more widespread role: in April, it announced a partnership to deploy this technology on Nvidia’s robotics platform. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, for his part, has long been calling for agentic AI adoption to be followed by physical AI (i.e., robots).

In a QNX press release unveiling a report this week, the company argued that software, not hardware, is the real problem in terms of making sure robotics works.

I supposed it would be poetic, in a way, if the company at the leading edge of the smartphone revolution also plays a big role in the proliferation of robotics.

markets
Luke Kawa

Micron and Sandisk rally on new Street-high price targets from Susquehanna

Micron and Sandisk both hit fresh all-time highs in early trading after Susquehanna bestowed new Wall Street-high price targets on the two memory stocks.

Analyst Mehdi Hosseini upped his view on the former to $1,750 from $600, and to $3,250 from $2,000 for the latter.

“Supply is now expected to remain tight through 2027, sustaining elevated margins and thus warranting valuation re-rating,” he wrote, per Bloomberg.

It’s the fifth time in the past year that the average price target on Micron has gone up by more than 10% in a week. UBS’s Tim Arcuri more than tripled his price target on Micron earlier this week, and has already lost the title of “most bullish.”

But even as analysts are tripping over themselves to raise their price targets on these stocks, the ferocity of the rally in Micron has outpaced their best efforts.

The high-bandwidth memory specialist traded at a record premium to the consensus Wall Street price target this week, based on data going back to 2008.

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Okta soars on Q1 earnings beat, raised outlook driven by AI security demand

Okta shares are surging in early trading Friday after the identity security provider posted Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The strong results are fueled by accelerating corporate demand for cybersecurity software, as well as the deployment of autonomous AI systems.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 compared to analysts estimate of $0.85.

  • Revenue of $765 million compared to an estimate of $752.7 million.

The company generated subscription revenue of $750 million, up 11% year over year. Okta also has $271 million in free cash flow, up from $238 million in the prior years quarter.

While standard cybersecurity software protects human workers, the latest catalyst sparking Oktas strong corporate performance is the rapid emergence of autonomous AI agents that can access sensitive corporate databases and interact with privileged executive accounts.

“AI agents are rapidly becoming a new workforce inside every organization, creating a wave of identities that must be secured and governed alongside human users,” said Todd McKinnon, CEO and cofounder of Okta. “We’re expanding our opportunity as the world’s leading independent and neutral identity provider and helping customers make identity the unified control plane for their secure agentic enterprise.”

Okta raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to between $3.185 billion and $3.205 billion, roughly in line with estimates of $3.18 billion. The company formally dropped its long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate from 26% down to 21%. This adjustment is a direct byproduct of the federal corporate tax frameworks under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Shares of Okta have risen around 9% since the beginning of this year.

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HPE, SMCI surge after Dell’s Q1 beat on strong AI server demand

HP Enterprise and Super Micro Computer shares are surging in premarket trading, getting a big boost from rival Dell’s strong Q1 results.

Dell’s $16.1 billion in AI-optimized server sales for the quarter alone proved that enterprise data center demand is accelerating faster than Wall Street had anticipated. The company posted revenue of $43.8 billion, exceeding Street estimates of $35.5 billion. Management now sees full-year sales of about $167 billion, well above the $142 billion expected by analysts.

The read-through is particularly relevant for Super Micro, one of the largest suppliers of Nvidia-powered AI server systems, and HPE, which has been expanding its AI infrastructure and liquid-cooling offerings through its partnership with Nvidia.

The moves suggest investors view AI infrastructure as a broad spending cycle that benefits server makers across the entire ecosystem.

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