Markets
Luke Kawa

Reversals wreak havoc as US stocks turn big gains to losses

Turnaround Tuesday gave way to Whiplash Wednesday.

The S&P 500 was up as much as 1.5% in early trading, but gave all that back and then some to end down 0.8%. For the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, it was a similar pattern with even worse results: those indexes finished off 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. 

Markets are still jittery and confused amid a selloff that’s increasingly more technical – and tech-centric – than economic in nature.

Reversals were the hot trend on Wednesday: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF was up nearly 4% in the morning before sinking 2.8%. That’s the first time on record (back to 2011) that this product was up at least 3% intraday only to close down more than 2%. All of its constituents were negative, with more than 5% losses for Nvidia and Broadcom.

Super Micro Computer, an AI darling, was up nearly 18% after hours on Tuesday after posting quarterly results that included a sales forecast that topped estimates – only to end 20% lower by the time the dust settled on Wednesday. Poor margins were blamed for the reversal, but the chart gives the appearance of a momentum trade that is broken. The stock was the worst performer in the S&P 500.

Airbnb was right behind it after posting underwhelming earnings, which included the tidbit that the revenge travel backlog looks to have cleared

Consumer discretionary and tech were the worst-performing S&P sector ETFs; utilities, energy, financials, and consumer staples advanced on the day.

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Sandisk and Micron slip as Samsung rushes new product into production

Sandisk and Micron, which have boomed along with prices for the memory chips needed for the AI data center build-out, are limping behind the broader market Monday after a weekend report that South Korean chip giant Samsung is beginning “mass production” of its latest memory product, HBM4, slightly earlier than expected.

US memory chip maker Micron also makes HBM (high-bandwidth memory), which is essentially a large memory product designed for AI applications.

Sandisk doesn’t make HBM. But it is developing a kind of high-bandwidth flash NAND memory product that is intended to function as an HBM option for AI data centers.

More broadly, signs that Asian production giants are responding to high prices by ramping up supply means that the nosebleed pricing of memory chips that quintupled Sandisk’s profit over the last year might not last forever.

US memory chip maker Micron also makes HBM (high-bandwidth memory), which is essentially a large memory product designed for AI applications.

Sandisk doesn’t make HBM. But it is developing a kind of high-bandwidth flash NAND memory product that is intended to function as an HBM option for AI data centers.

More broadly, signs that Asian production giants are responding to high prices by ramping up supply means that the nosebleed pricing of memory chips that quintupled Sandisk’s profit over the last year might not last forever.

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Oracle rises as DA Davidson gives it a “buy” rating because of OpenAI positivity

Oracle rose after receiving an upgrade to start the week. Analysts at DA Davidson bumped up their view on the stock from “neutral” to “buy” and kept their $180 price target on the shares. That’s about 27% higher than Friday’s close.

Their shift isn’t so much about Oracle but about OpenAI, which Davidson folks now think is increasingly likely to be able to make good on billions of dollars’ worth of planned spending on computing power at Oracle and other hyperscalers. They wrote:

We are now more positive on OpenAI, based on changes in strategy, new frontier models, the pressure on Google’s competitors from its recent ascent, and progress on its fundraising efforts. Most importantly, we believe OpenAI already has as much as $40B of cash on hand and may be raising as much as another $100B by the end of the quarter, which should help pay for the data centers Oracle is building for OpenAI. Since the market is currently assigning the OpenAI relationship a negative value, we believe the fundraise will serve as a catalyst for outperformance.

For OpenAI’s part, CEO Sam Altman just told employees that the company was “back to exceeding 10% monthly growth,” according to CNBC reporting.

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Roblox rises following upgrade and price target hike from Roth Capital as growth in older players boosts optimism

Shares of Roblox are up in early trading on Monday following a price target hike and an upgrade from “neutral” to “buy” from Roth Capital.

Roth bumped its price target up from $78 to $84, with analyst Eric Handler citing the company’s “sustainable virtuous circle where continuously improving creator/development tools are producing higher quality games, which enhances the user experience, and drives higher engagement.”

Handler also noted Roblox’s success in growing its 18-plus player base, which increased 50% last year and, per Roth, “monetized 40% higher than under-18-users.”

The platform surged after reporting its fourth-quarter earnings last week, with stronger-than-expected full-year bookings guidance. Still, the stock remains below levels in January, before the debut of Google’s AI interactive worlds generator, Project Genie.

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