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Robinhood, new S&P 500 leader, the subject of favorable analyst chatter

Robinhood Markets briefly touched a new all-time intraday high in early trading after the newly minted — and now top-performing — member of the the S&P 500 received some favorable write-ups from Wall Street analysts.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own stock as part of my compensation.)

Piper Sandler analysts highlighted momentum in the company’s prediction markets business thanks to the rollout of contracts on college and profession football, noting that the event contracts business was running at a $200 million annualized rate so far in September. They raised their price target on the shares to $140 from $120.

“Prediction Markets (aka event contracts) present significant upside opportunity for Robinhood,” Piper Sandler’s Patrick Moley wrote.

Elsewhere, Citi analysts raised their Q3 and full-year 2025 estimates and upped their price target on the shares to $135, but kept a “neutral” rating on the stock.

“While HOOD continues to see solid momentum across the platform, we believe the stock is pricing in much of the growth potential in our view. Given current valuations and where we are in the retail cycle (closer to the highs than the lows from an activity perspective from our viewpoint), we prefer to wait for a more reasonable entry point at present.”

The stock has clearly had a heck of a run.

Through yesterday’s close, Robinhood was up nearly 240% in 2025. Since it was added to the S&P 500 on Monday, it’s now the top performer among the blue chips, trouncing previous leaders Seagate Technology Holdings and Palantir.

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Chip stocks post record outperformance of software companies in never-before-seen divergence

One session in 2026 brings one thing we’ve never seen before in markets: a massive divergence between the two big parts of the technology sector.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF absolutely trounced the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF today, with the former gaining 3.7% leaving while the latter dropped 2.9%.

The 6.6-percentage point gap is the biggest outperformance for SMH versus IGV on record, going back to December 2011.

Since these two are both parts of a broader technology whole, it’s rare to have one up a ton while the other gets shellacked. The rolling one-year correlation of daily returns for these two ETFs was about 0.8 heading into today.

There have been only three sessions (including today) where the chip stock ETF was up at least 1.5% while the software ETF was down 1.5% or more. We’ve never seen SMH gain 2% while IGV fell 2% before Friday’s session. And there’s been only one session where the reverse happened (November 11, 2024).

The opening trading day of 2026 was phenomenal for the AI picks and shovels trade, while very poor for their more downstream peers.

How and why did this happen? Who knows really, but this looks like the kind of thing where a couple major funds decide to keep their total AI exposure stable but lean into a hardware-over-software tilt when adjusting their positioning at the start of the year, which kicks off intraday momentum that forces everyone else along for the ride.

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AI downstream stocks tumble even as their picks and shovels peers soar

While the AI picks and shovels stocks are enjoying a strong start to 2026, the same can’t be said for the companies more downstream in this theme — even most of the hyperscalers.

The S&P 500’s biggest losers today include:

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.