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Matt Phillips

Robinhood surges as prediction markets gain traction

Robinhood jumped to an all-time intraday record of more than $132 late Monday morning on growing optimism about the brokerage’s prediction markets business both on Wall Street and within the company’s own executive suite.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own stock as part of my compensation.)

Earlier in the day, Robinhood Chief Executive Vlad Tenev posted this tweet spotlighting that more than 4 billion event contracts have been traded on the platform since they began to be offered in February.

Analysts have also been focusing on the uptick in activity in the events contract business as a potential boon for the shares.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley published a note on Monday highlighting how trading volumes at prediction market company Kalshi soared to new records over the weekend as traders took positions on the outcomes of college and pro football games using event contracts.

Moley estimates that users at Robinhood — which partnered with Kalshi to offer contracts on games — account for between 25% and 35% of Kalshi’s daily event contract activity.

“We continue to expect HOOD will report ~2.5B of event contracts traded in 3Q25 which, at $0.01/contract, translates to ~$25M in revenue,” Moley wrote.

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Luke Kawa

Cava may be an unlikely victim of a potential US government shutdown

Government shutdowns typically aren’t a big deal for the stock market as a whole.

But for Cava, which was founded in Maryland and is headquartered in Washington, DC, there’s the prospect of forgone sales in the event that government employees suddenly have no cause to frequent the fast-casual Mediterranean chain, which means emptier tills as bellies get filled elsewhere.

At the end of Q2, Cava had 398 locations. It currently boasts seven in the district proper, at least 14 a close drive away in Virginia, and 25 in Maryland.

Cava’s annual report singled out the Washington, DC/Maryland/Virginia metropolitan area as having “a high concentration of restaurants,” in discussing risk factors for the company. And it may be a particularly bad time to be a slop bowl seller around the nation’s capital.

The potential shutdown would be the latest challenge for Cava amid struggles to stand out amid a myriad of lunch options for working professionals and the recently announced departure of COO Jennifer Somers.

For what it’s worth, this is not the first time this year Cava has faced concerns about potential weakness in DC. During its Q1 earnings call, Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore questioned Cava’s leadership about a potential impact from DOGE given its “fairly big footprint” in the metro area, and CFO Tricia Tolivar said the company hadn’t really seen evidence of metro-specific softness.

Luke Kawa
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“Follow the feds” replaces “follow the Fed” as financial market maxim

Taking a position in companies the US government has exposure to has worked out handsomely so far.

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5h
Electronic Arts set to go private in $55 billion deal — the latest in a long line of disappearing stocks

The “Madden” maker is set to join a growing group of listed companies that are deciding to drop out of exchanges.

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Luke Kawa

Nvidia jumps as Jefferies hikes price target to $220 from $205

Nvidia is off to a great start this week, buoyed by Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis hiking his price target on the $4 trillion chip designer to $220 from $205 thanks to the recent announcement of its $100 million investment in OpenAI to enhance and accelerate the build-out of data centers.

Curtis wrote:

“Management made clear the strategic partnership represents incremental demand for NVDA and does not overlap with existing OAI plans with ORCL or MSFT. Raising estimates based on the new partnership. Raising revenue for C26/C27 to $282B/$334B (vs St. $279B/$328B) from $269B/$300B, respectively. Raising EPS for C26/C27 to $6.55/$7.72 (vs St. $6.49/$7.57) from $6.09/$6.71.”

markets
Matt Phillips

Disk drive makers rip, analyst cites conviction on cycle upswing

Western Digital and Seagate Technology Holdings — makers of the affordable data storage devices known as hard disk drives — surged Monday amid a general upswing in the AI data center trade and after a specific shout-out to the sector by Morgan Stanley IT analysts.

The analysts ratcheted up their price targets — to $171 from $99 for WDC, and to $265 from $168 for Seagate — and earnings estimates for both stocks, both of which they rate “overweight” (essentially a “buy”).

They wrote:

“While we’ve been hard disk drive (HDD) bulls for the better part of two years, HDD demand has recently inflected — the result of strengthening cloud infrastructure spending ($3T through 2028), accelerating investments in data-enabling technologies, and AI inferencing — both agentic and multi-modal — emerging as an incremental tailwind to data-rich media generation and data retention needs.

At the same time, the market remains up to 10% undersupplied per our recent checks, and as a result, nearline HDD prices are firming and visibility has recently extended into [the first half of calender 2027], an unprecedented 18+ months from now.”

The two disk drive makers are the second- and third-best performers in the S&P 500 this year, with Seagate up roughly 170% and Western Digital up about 160%.

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