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Wall Street reacts to Robinhood’s Q2 numbers
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Robinhood’s Q2: Here’s what Wall Street thinks

Analysts revised estimates higher following Robinhood’s Q2 results, but there’s still that question of valuation.

Matt Phillips

Robinhood Markets shares fluctuated in early trading Thursday, a day after the company posted Q2 earnings that, in the aggregate, seemed to please Wall Street. Analysts subsequently revised their expectations for full-year 2025 earnings and sales higher, typically a sign the numbers were well received.

(Robinhood Markets, Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company.)

Here’s some of the chatter from scribes on the Street...

Barclays (Rating: “Overweight”; Price target: $120):

“While momentum appeared to decelerate in Q2 (softer deposits every month sequentially; worsening churn and slowing new funded accounts), July saw more of a pick up in a number of KPIs including deposits, margin balances, and trading volumes. With the stock trading around all time highs, it is not yet clear if the Q2 beat (some of which, like Securities lending and the options take rate, may not recur) was enough, but we are encouraged by the ongoing momentum in the US brokerage business in particular.”

Mizuho (Rating: “Outperform”; Price target: $120):

“We think Robinhood will aim to leverage its already massive (and growing) user base, simple interface, and ecosystem to cross-sell lending products, which will continue to push the company closer to its 10-year vision of being the #1 global financial ecosystem.”

Citi (Rating: “Neutral/High Risk”; Price target: $120):

“While HOOD continues to see solid momentum across the platform, we believe the stock is pricing in much of the growth potential in our view (currently trading at 59x/48x our 2026/2027 EPS estimates). Although we see a number of long-term growth opportunities and an improving fundamental outlook, we prefer to wait for a more reasonable entry point at present.”

Morgan Stanley (Rating: “Equal-weight”; Price target: $110):

“We remain convicted in HOOD’s long-term growth on the back of strong 2Q earnings where mgmt continues to demonstrate strong account growth and organic asset growth, illustrating that the value prop of the HOOD ecosystem continues to resonate.”

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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Sherwood Media, LLC and Chartr Limited produce fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and are fully owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Money, LLC, Robinhood U.K. Ltd, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, Robinhood Gold, LLC, Robinhood Asset Management, LLC, Robinhood Credit, Inc., Robinhood Ventures DE, LLC and, where applicable, its managed investment vehicles.