The S&P is having its best year of the millennium

From “Wake Me Up When September Ends” to “Dancing in September”

10/1/24 9:48AM

In 2024, the US stock market will not bow to the whims of the Gregorian calendar.

The S&P 500 started off September on a terrible note. But stocks bounced back to book a gain of 2% and end September at an all-time high — in defiance of the typical pattern that sees the benchmark US stock index go down in the ninth month of the year.

How’d the S&P 500 shake the September scaries?

Critically, economic data haven’t been that bad.

Sure, the the August jobs report was on the softer side, but most metrics released over the course of the month exceeded economists’ expectations — retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, building permits, and durable goods orders, to name a few. Oh, and second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3% quarter-on-quarter annualized. Other amended data showed that the US income growth and the savings rate had been higher than anticipated, undercutting a bear case that consumption would soon fall off a cliff.

In fact, the Citigroup US economic surprise index, which tracks data relative to analysts’ estimates, posted its biggest one-month improvement since June 2023 over the past month. This gauge, which tends to bottom in the summer months, is on the verge of breaking into positive territory for the first time since the start of May.

And the Federal Reserve was able to deliver a jumbo interest rate cut without spooking the market. So while there continues to be fraying around the edges of the job market, the rest of the economic data aren’t showing incremental signs of deterioration. And the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus away from getting inflation down towards making sure the US unemployment rate doesn’t go up much more.

Put it all together, and we’re looking at the best three-quarters of a year for the S&P 500 in the new millennium.

“The S&P 500 has now posted its strongest year to date advance of the 21st century so far up to Q3, having advanced more than +20% since the start of the year,” writes Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid.

Matt Phillips3h

Oil settles Friday at highest level since start of war

US oil prices moved higher in afternoon trading Friday, sapping strength from the stock market as they posted their highest close since the start of the Iran war.

After another day where the Strait of Hormuz was essentially closed to global tanker traffic, US futures for West Texas Intermediate settled up 3.1% at $98.71 a barrel for an 8.6% weekly gain, per Dow Jones data.

American officials have discussed using the US Navy to escort tankers through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, but have said plans for such convoys are not ready yet. However, it is unclear if military convoys would bring an end to the war-related dislocations in the oil market.

“It could help,” Tom Liles, senior vice president of upstream research at energy consulting firm Rystad, told Sherwood News in a recent interview. “It could also go in a lot of different directions if a Navy ship is hit or if a tanker is hit.”

Oil Posts Weekly Gains As Middle East Conflict Drags On

Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks post third straight week of losses as Brent crude surges above $100

Stocks wiped out early gains to close lower amid the ongoing war in Iran.

Matt Phillips7h

Memory stocks rebound off last weeks losses

Memory stocks Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings rose again Friday, putting these crucial providers of chips for AI inference work on track for big weekly gains after last week’s steep losses following the outbreak of war with Iran.

There’s no obvious trigger for the move higher for these shares this week, other than a bit of a recovery in the AI trade more broadly — AI beneficiaries like IT cable and connections maker Amphenol and custom chip and networking company Marvell Technology clawed back some gains this week — perhaps due Oracle’s earnings earlier, and some mean reversion to boot.

Micron is due to report earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday, with the company catching a couple price target hikes this week, including one from Wedbush on Friday.

Sandisk is something of a different story, as its enormous gains over the last 12 months — roughly 1,200% — have made it a momentum play beloved by the retail crowd.

It was up about 20% this week at around 11 a.m. ET. And its nearly 170% gain this year keeps the stock on top of the S&P 500, in terms of price performance.

Luke Kawa

The S&P 500’s internals are awful... while it’s still less than 5% from its record closing high

The breadth of negative momentum within the index’s constituents is even worse than at the tariff-induced market bottom in April 2025.