Luke Kawa7/11/24

In nearly 30 years, the S&P 500 hasn’t had a day like this

The S&P 500 had its worst session since the end of April, falling 0.9% as the Magnificent Seven proved a misnomer — at least for today.

A soft US CPI inflation print catalyzed a violent rotation out of what had been working this year into what has been lagging, with interest-rate sensitive sectors also performing well.

This was a day for the record books.

Breadth within the S&P 500 was exceptional: nearly 400 stocks rose. The S&P 500 has never suffered a loss this large with that many stocks moving higher versus lower in data going back to October 1996.

The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks had its best day since November, up 3.5%, while the Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Index of tech titans fell 4.2%, its worst day since October 2022. The performance gap between the two was the largest going back to at least April 2015.

Lower-than-expected inflation fueled a rally in bonds, helping make real estate the best-performing S&P sector ETF. Its 2.7% gain was the biggest for the sector all year. Utilities, another rate-sensitive pocket of the market, gained 1.8%.

The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF did even better, up a whopping 5.9% in its best day since October 2022.

The tech sector ETF was trounced, down 2.5%, with communication services and consumer discretionary also off more than 1%. Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Meta all fell more than 2%.

There were also some earnings stories that weighed on the market as well. In particular, Delta fell 4% after reporting quarterly results that disappointed and stirred fears of industry-wide overcapacity even amid high travel.

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Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks jump as Trump postpones strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure

A heat map of the S&P 500 was bright green on news of a potential ceasefire on energy asset strikes.

Cowboy Riding a Bull - stock illustration

markets

Matt Phillips13h

Palantir pops as its Maven AI targeting system made “official program” for DOD

Palantir jumped Monday following reports that the US military is making official its long-term commitment to buying and using Palantir’s AI-powered data analysis and targeting program.

Reuters’ David Jeans reported over the weekend:

“Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military.

In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters ‘with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains.’”

Key benefits of being named an “official program of record” include eligibility for permanent funding from the Department of Defense. The designation also implies a long-term commitment to a technology, which significantly decreases competitive threats from alternate military contractors and vendors.

In other words, being a “program of record” implies significant long-term cash flow in the future from the US Treasury to Palantir, and thus the market reaction.

Exclusive: Pentagon to adopt Palantir AI as core US military system, memo says

Exclusive: Pentagon to adopt Palantir AI as core US military system, memo says

“Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military.

In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters ‘with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains.’”

Key benefits of being named an “official program of record” include eligibility for permanent funding from the Department of Defense. The designation also implies a long-term commitment to a technology, which significantly decreases competitive threats from alternate military contractors and vendors.

In other words, being a “program of record” implies significant long-term cash flow in the future from the US Treasury to Palantir, and thus the market reaction.

markets

J. Edward Moreno16h

Lawmakers to introduce bill banning sports contracts on prediction markets: WSJ

Sports-betting stocks rose after The Wall Street Journal reported that a bipartisan pair of lawmakers are seeking to ban Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated companies from offering sports-related contracts on prediction markets.

Reportedly sponsored by Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and John Curtis, R-Utah, the bill would prevent companies like Kalshi or Polymarket’s US arm from posting event contracts related to the outcome of sporting events, a market that accounts for a sizable chunk of their volumes.

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Exclusive | Lawmakers to Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets

Exclusive | Lawmakers to Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Stocks jolt higher after Trump says US will postpone Iran energy strikes for a “five day period”

Global equity markets were sharply in the red once again until President Trump posted on Truth Social, detailing a five-day break from strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after “productive” talks.

Donald Trump Social Media Illustrations

markets

Claire Yubin Oh17h

Synopsys rises on WSJ report of Elliott’s new multibillion-dollar stake

Software company Synopsys is up 3% in premarket trading on Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported that Elliott Investment Management, a well-known activist fund, has taken a multibillion-dollar stake in the company.

Elliott Managing Partner Jesse Cohn told the WSJ that “Synopsys is essential to the global chip industry,” and that it is “uniquely positioned to benefit” as the AI industry continues to require more capital, more complex chips, and therefore, more software to design them.

The firm’s investment is predicated on a “clear opportunity for Synopsys’ financial performance to more fully reflect the value it delivers.” While memory stocks like Micron have been on a tear recently, Synopsys has dropped 8% over the past year, lagging behind its biggest rival, Cadence Design Systems, which is up 6% in the same period.

Citing people familiar with the investment in Synopsys, the Journal reports that Elliott sees room for the company to boost sales and improve its margins to be more in line with that of Cadence. In its fiscal year 2025, Cadence notched an adjusted operating margin of nearly 45%, while Synopsys eked out only 37%.

Exclusive | Activist Elliott Builds Big Stake in Chip-Design Software Maker Synopsys

Exclusive | Activist Elliott Builds Big Stake in Chip-Design Software Maker Synopsys

Elliott Managing Partner Jesse Cohn told the WSJ that “Synopsys is essential to the global chip industry,” and that it is “uniquely positioned to benefit” as the AI industry continues to require more capital, more complex chips, and therefore, more software to design them.

The firm’s investment is predicated on a “clear opportunity for Synopsys’ financial performance to more fully reflect the value it delivers.” While memory stocks like Micron have been on a tear recently, Synopsys has dropped 8% over the past year, lagging behind its biggest rival, Cadence Design Systems, which is up 6% in the same period.

Citing people familiar with the investment in Synopsys, the Journal reports that Elliott sees room for the company to boost sales and improve its margins to be more in line with that of Cadence. In its fiscal year 2025, Cadence notched an adjusted operating margin of nearly 45%, while Synopsys eked out only 37%.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.

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