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Luke Kawa2/28/25

A positive Friday? S&P 500 looks to snap Trump 2.0 market trend

With the S&P 500 flipping from early losses to a 0.5% advance on Friday, one of the Trump 2.0 market patterns may now be snapped.

TGIF has not been a phrase traders have been uttering this year. Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the S&P 500 has traded down on every Friday. It’s been the worst session of the week over this period.

One would be tempted to point to price action like this as screaming “policy risk” — the idea that traders might take some chips off the table on Friday, fearing that potential measures taken by the new administration (particularly related to trade) could be negative for stocks. This kind of trading pattern often shows up during times of particularly high geopolitical tensions.

However, while there have been many plans to impose tariffs, there hasn’t been much follow-through yet. And if this were the story, we’d expect to see down Fridays and positive Mondays, a relief rally as the weekend concerns are unwound. This hasn’t been the case.

But Mondays, of course, are somewhat skewed by having a very low sample, even considering this short time frame (just four sessions since the inauguration, thanks to holidays), and January 27, the day of the DeepSeek-induced market freak-out, having fallen on a Monday.

This weekly trading pattern has not gone unnoticed, and as can be common with market trends or coincidences, just as they start to be more commonly appreciated, they stop working.

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How surging bond yields threaten to derail the momentum trade in stocks

Sharp changes in yields mean the world might be changing. Momentum stocks like it when the world stays the same.

Highlands Train Wreck

markets

T1 Energy spikes on record call buying after Situational Awareness reveals 3.6% stake

T1 Energy is soaring after a 13F filing released this morning showed Situational Awareness held a 3.6% position in the solar and battery storage company at the end of Q1.

The position makes the hedge fund one of the 10 biggest owners of T1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Situational Awareness has become a closely followed fund because of how well it’s done in the AI era and who it’s run by: former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, who’s only in his mid-20s!

(In fact, there was much consternation across X on Friday that the fund’s 13F wasn’t released ahead of the weekend.)

Call volumes in T1 are absolutely exploding as traders look to play follow-the-Leopold: they’re running at 52,501 less than 90 minutes into the trading day, already a one-day record for the stock.

Nvidia: Too big to excite?

The chip designer has transformed from a high-beta leader to a low-beta laggard within the AI theme it created.

TAIWAN-TECH-BUSINESS

markets

Regeneron sinks as Phase 3 skin cancer treatment trial fails

Regeneron is sinking in premarket trading after announcing its late-stage skin cancer treatment failed to meet its primary goal in a Phase 3 trial.

The pharma giant reported no statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival for patients with advanced melanoma. This late-stage trial failure could be a blow to Regeneron’s oncology expansion strategy, where it hoped to challenge competing treatments like Merck’s Keytruda.

The clinical setback is triggering immediate price target cuts across Wall Street from the likes of BMO Capital, Citi, RBC Capital, Evercore ISI, and Leerink Partners.

“This was to be the defining catalyst of 1H26, with share sentiment inextricably tied to this release,” BMO Capital analyst Evan David Seigerman commented in a note, per Bloomberg.

Seeking to shift investor sentiment, Regeneron announced a major collaboration with Parabilis Medicines, paying $125 million up front with the potential for up to $2.2 billion in milestone payments to combine its antibody platform with Parabilis’ peptide technology.

markets

LiveRamp surges on $2.54 billion all-cash buyout by Publicis Groupe and Q4 earnings results

LiveRamp’s shares are surging in premarket trading following an announcement over the weekend that French advertising company Publicis Groupe will acquire the data collaboration platform for $38.50 per share in an all-cash deal. The transaction values LiveRamp at a total equity value of $2.167 billion.

The buyout marks a massive consolidation in the advertising technology space. Under the terms of the agreement, Publicis will fund the acquisition using cash on hand and debt. The transaction has been unanimously approved by both boards of directors and is expected to officially close by the end of calendar year 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

“This transaction reflects the strength of our business, the value of our platform and the strategic role LiveRamp plays in an AI-driven market,” Scott Howe, CEO of LiveRamp, commented in the statement.

Following the news, LiveRamp also delivered Q4 results for its fiscal year 2026. Total revenue for the quarter rose 9% year over year to $206 million. Growth was driven primarily by subscription revenue, which also jumped 9% to $158 million.

For full fiscal year 2026, net cash provided by operating activities reached a record $168 million. LiveRamp repurchased approximately 7.1 million shares for $194 million during fiscal 2026, leaving $262 million in remaining capacity under its current share authorization program.

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