Confused by conflicting semiconductor earnings reports? Zoom out for some good news
There’s been good news and bad news from major chip players this week, but profit expectations for the industry recently rose to a fresh record.
Chip stocks have been whipsawed in recent days, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF tumbling 5.4% on Tuesday after semi supplier ASML cut its 2025 guidance, and up about 2.5% in early trading on Thursday after chipmaker TSMC boosted its sales outlook for next year.
How do investors make sense of these conflicting narratives? Well, one way would be at looking at expectations for the semiconductor industry as a whole rather than just two examples.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index shows that 12-month estimates for the cohort’s forward earnings per share hit a fresh high ahead of the start of earnings season.
The message from Wall Street’s bottom-up bean counters is that Big Tech’s torrent of spending on AI will continue to be a potent catalyst for the semi space.
BofA: Hyperscalers are expected to drive the entire capex growth for the S&P 500 in 2024 pic.twitter.com/9UVkx9IJGN
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 14, 2024