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SoundHound now up nearly 1,000% in 2024

This is getting kind of nuts.

Matt Phillips

Voice AI company SoundHound AI surged again on Wednesday, the latest escalation in what appears to be a running battle between online cheerleaders for the stock and those betting that the run-up in the money-losing small-cap packaged-software firm must eventually bend to financial reality.

But the stock surge Wednesday — more than 20% at last glance — pushed the price past a remarkable milestone. Shareholders are now sitting close to a milestone of 1,000% gains in 2024. (It briefly hit that level in intraday trading before a somewhat hawkish rate cut from the Fed at 2 p.m.)

Over at the Reddit sub where SoundHound partisans gather, there are good feelings all around, as you might imagine, with one commenter claiming that their holding in the stock hit $1 million on today’s rally.

The current upsurge in the shares seemed to gather steam after a post over on WallStreetBets, in which a commenter laid out a pretty bearish case on the company and said they were shorting the stock, i.e. betting the shares would fall.

The argument largely centers on SoundHound’s August acquisition of enterprise-software company Amelia, which, the writer argues, is “a much shittier business than Soundhound, but it’s also ~2x its size from a financial perspective.”

“Soundhound’s financials will now be driven by the results of Amelia, and so too will the stock price,” they wrote in a post titled, “Here’s why I’m shorting Soundhound.”

On a strict valuation basis, it’s hard to argue that any SoundHound — at a price-to-next-12-months sales ratio of more than 50 — is anything but overvalued at the moment. But it’s also clear that careful valuation metrics are not something the markets are overly concerned about right now.

Ultimately this will get resolved one way or the other by financial results, but we won’t get another earnings update on the company until March, meaning online rhetoricians won’t have to incorporate any fresh facts into their arguments for awhile.

For those who are interested in hearing from the horse’s mouth about the prospects for SoundHound AI and learning about the company’s background, we spoke to CEO Keyvan Mohajer back in late October.

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Retail traders are selling everything but the Magnificent 7, per JPMorgan

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain with the skinny on retail trading activity through 11:30 a.m. ET today:

“Retail investors are selling into today’s strength in both ETFs and Single Stocks. In ETFs, they are trimming their broad-based exposure—a major departure from their typical pattern.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF and ProShares UltraPro QQQ suffered particularly large outflows, per Jain.

The exceptions to the selling pressure are the Magnificent 7 stocks, he writes, with Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft enjoying “small net purchases” while Micron, TSMC, Exxon, and Chevron the most-dumped names.

Retail trading 4/8

Last week, Jain noted that retail traders had been “skipping the dips, selling into rallies, and positioning more defensively” with markets jittery amid the ongoing Mideast war.

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Avis shorts facing $1.1 billion in losses as car rental company racks up 155% gains in its recent rally

Whatever traders are doing with Avis — buying, or just renting — it’s causing short sellers an immense amount of pain.

Shares of the car rental company have traded violently on Wednesday, from up nearly 7% at their highs to down almost 4% at their lows, after a face-ripping rally of 155% over the previous 11 sessions.

Per exchange data, roughly half the shares were sold short as of mid-March. S3 Partners, which tracks higher-frequency measures, said that short interest as a share of float had recently been trimmed to about 43%, down from as high as 53% at the start of the year.

Per Matthew Unterman, managing director at S3, Avis shorts are down $1.1 billion on paper over the past 30 days.

This isn’t Avis’ first rodeo: shares went parabolic in Q4 2021 as part of a meme stock moment in which it briefly became the most valuable company in the Russell 2000 small-cap index.

In any event, cheers to u/Bright_Leopard_4326, who admonished other members of the r/ShortSqueeze subreddit for not paying enough attention to the potential for a boom in the stock 10 days ago, when shares were trading below $150.

AVIS short squeeze
Source: r/ShortSqueeze
Persian Gulf

Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, the energy crisis is far from over. Here’s what to watch for.

In a Q&A with Sherwood, commodities analyst Rory Johnston lays out how to better understand the oil market’s situation.

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Data center trade revived on Iran war ceasefire

Data center stocks leapt early Wednesday, as the Iran war ceasefire reinvigorated risk-taking aimed at the booming AI build-out.

A wide range of stocks related to building and powering data center shells, filling them with chips, servers, racks, and memory, and then connecting those racks to one another and users around the world bounced hard in early trading.

Memory stocks like Micron, Western Digital, Seagate Technology Holdings, and Sandisk — favorites of retail traders given their massive performance in recent years — climbed.

Traders seemed to price in durable demand for memory and other chips, with the companies that make the machines that actually make semiconductors rising sharply as well. Dutch semiconductor machinery giant ASML rose, as did Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA Corp.

Fiber-optic cable and connecting companies like Lumentum, Coherent, Corning, and Applied Optoelectronics — which had been on a run before the outbreak of Mideast hostilities — regained momentum.

And the construction and engineering companies — MasTec, Vertiv Holdings, Quanta Services, and Comfort Systems USA — that have been feasting on the cash pouring into data center building and engineering also jumped.

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