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HOLD UP

Stocks might need a breather

A 15% romp over the last six months has left key valuation metrics in pretty rarified air. Don’t be surprised if the market splutters for a bit.

Matt Phillips

10/15/24 2:05PM

Election jitters aside, it’s been a great year for stocks with the S&P 500 up over 22% in 2024. Huzzah.

Of course, the rally could run a while longer as we gallop into November, with the resolution — hopefully! — of the US presidential race.

At minimum, a clear outcome with a peaceful transfer of power could alleviate some investor uncertainty. The winner could even proffer a rationale for a further market rise, for instance, if investors equate, say, a Trump victory with an extension of the juicy corporate tax cuts he doled out when last in office.

On the other hand, the market has already moved significantly. Over the last six months, the S&P 500 is up some 15%, a frolic that’s pushed the alpha and omega of valuation metrics, the forward price-to-earnings ratio, into truly stretched territory.

As of the close of trading on Monday, the S&P was trading at a multiple of 22x next year’s projected earnings.

The market has rarely traded in such elevated territory, the only recent examples being the Covid-era stock-market boom, as traders snapped up stocks on the understanding that the stream of corporate earnings decimated by the pandemic would eventually bounce back. (They did.)

Before that, you’d have to go back to the euphoric days of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s and early aughts to find such enthusiasm for stocks.

Now it’s possible that with earnings season just getting underway, we’ll see Wall Street analysts adjust their profit forecast much higher over the coming weeks, which would make the market look less expensive than it currently does without requiring a pullback.

It also might be the case that the market is overdue for a few weeks of meandering, or, heaven forfend, a bit of a decline as some excess optimism is sloughed off by the grind through earnings season.

For the record, the last time we got this close to this kind of P/E multiple was around the start of Q2 earnings season back in July, which was accompanied by a bracing three-week market correction that saw the S&P 500 sink by about 10% on an intraday basis.

Nobody knows which way things might go.

But those who think the market enthusiasm might be a bit excessive may find it interesting to note Tuesday’s weakness in pockets of the market with the headiest stock sentiment — for instance, AI-levered semiconductors like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Applied Materials.

They’re all taking a bit of a header after the Dutch chip-equipment giant ASML seemed to spot something of an enduring soft patch for semiconductor demand outside of AI.

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J. Edward Moreno2/6/26

FDA says it will take “decisive steps” against GLP-1 compounders, HHS refers Hims to DOJ for investigation

The Food and Drug Administration said it would take "decisive steps" to restrict GLP-1 compounding, a day after Hims & Hers announced that it would sell copies ofNovo Nordisk’sWegovy pill.

The FDA specifically called out Hims in the announcement. Additionally, Department of Health and Human Services' General Counsel Mike Stuart said in a post on X on Friday he has referred Hims to the Department of Justice "for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions."

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

Based on a review of the applicable facts, earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (“Hims”) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.
— HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart (@HHSGCMikeStuart) February 6, 2026

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Shares of Hims fell 14% after hours. The stock had already taken a hit after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said in an X post on Thursday that the agency would “take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs.”

Hims, long flying under regulators’ radar, finally strikes a nerve with its Wegovy pill copy

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

Based on a review of the applicable facts, earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (“Hims”) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.
— HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart (@HHSGCMikeStuart) February 6, 2026

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Tasha Matsumoto

2/6/26

Tech rebound propels stocks to best day since May

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all climbed higher as the AI trade was back on.

Chicago Bulls Dennis Rodman (91) and Michael Jordan (23) in action, rebounding vs Charlotte Hornets

Max Knoblauch2/6/26

Airlines rise, continuing their volatile 2026, as US-Iran talks may foreshadow some oil supply relief

Airline stocks are surging on Friday, as the market appears to be pricing in some medium-term oil pricing relief following talks between the US and Iran. Iranian officials referred to the meeting as “a good beginning.”

Shares of budget carriers, which have tighter margins and are more sensitive to fluctuations in fuel costs, are leading the surge. Frontier Airlines and Allegiant up more than 13%, while major airlines like United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines are also up at least 6%. JetBlue and Alaska Air are similarly up about 6%.

The market more broadly is rebounding on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and bitcoin recovering some of this week’s losses.

Airlines have been volatile to start 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, varying annual forecasts, and the impact of winter storms.

Luke Kawa2/6/26

The AI supply chain is soaring thanks to Amazon’s capex budget

If tech companies are going to spend way more than expected on capex, well, that means other companies are poised to benefit from that massive spending spree.

Amazon’s plan for $200 billion in business investment this year was the exclamation point to end a reporting period that saw every Magnificent 7 hyperscaler that provides guidance offer a 2026 capex budget well above what Wall Street had anticipated.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Data center/neocloud companies: Applied Digital, CoreWeave, Cipher Mining, and Nebius, with some of these seemingly getting an extra lift from their legacy role as crypto miners.
Chips: the usual suspects — Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
Racks: Super Micro Computer, which is continuing its strong run following earnings, and Dell.
Power: Oklo, Nuscale, and Plug Power.

Big Tech capital expenditure soared in 2025. It’s going up another 50% in 2026.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Data center/neocloud companies: Applied Digital, CoreWeave, Cipher Mining, and Nebius, with some of these seemingly getting an extra lift from their legacy role as crypto miners.
Chips: the usual suspects — Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
Racks: Super Micro Computer, which is continuing its strong run following earnings, and Dell.
Power: Oklo, Nuscale, and Plug Power.

Matt Phillips2/6/26

For memory chips, the “parabolic price hike” is continuing to ramp higher

The remarkable run-up in prices for memory chips continued into early February, analysts at Bernstein Research say, driven largely by data center demand from hyperscalers and cloud service providers (CSP).

Prices for NAND flash memory wafers — a type of memory used in devices, as it retains data even when powered down — soared 35% between the end of 2025 and February 2.

Spot prices for DRAM — ubiquitous short-term data storage chips — jumped about 28% in that period. But that massively understates the remarkable shift in pricing for what were long seen as commodity tech hardware inputs. DRAM prices are more than 2,000% over the last year, while NAND prices are up more than 600% in that period.

The ongoing momentum provides still more support for memory chip plays like Micron and Sandisk, which have been big market winners in recent months.

In a note published earlier this week, Bernstein Research analysts wrote:

“The parabolic price hike continued in Jan. Indicated price increase for 1QCY26 is much stronger than we expected and we hence see upside to our near term memory pricing projection. Unrelenting CSP demand remained the main driver. PC and Mobile demand hasn’t been destroyed yet because of lean inventory & pull-forward purchase. Going forward price hike is expected to continue but likely at a slower rate, as PC and Mobile demand should contract meaningfully this year. Price however may stay elevated throughout this year, supported by CSP demand.”

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