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Stock futures dip after report Trump considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island, drones strike Kuwait’s largest oil refinery

After a small relief rally yesterday afternoon, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country is helping with US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, risk assets like stocks are once again under pressure.

Futures on the S&P 500 are currently off 0.5%, a downturn seemingly catalyzed by a new report from Axios, which states that President Trump is exploring plans to “occupy or blockade” Kharg Island.

Citing four sources familiar with the matter, Axios highlights that any attempt to take Kharg Island — a small island of just 16 square kilometres that processes 90% of Iran's crude oil exports — would put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire.

From a markets perspective, however, the most important detail might be the timeline, with Axios quoting one source as saying:

We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.

Up to a month’s more strikes and disruption of global commodity markets before beginning a potentially risky land assault isn’t exactly what investors will want to hear currently, as Brent Crude remains north of $110 per barrel after another Iranian drone attack on the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait, which processes about 730,000 barrels of oil each day, per Al Jazeera.

Citing four sources familiar with the matter, Axios highlights that any attempt to take Kharg Island — a small island of just 16 square kilometres that processes 90% of Iran's crude oil exports — would put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire.

From a markets perspective, however, the most important detail might be the timeline, with Axios quoting one source as saying:

We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.

Up to a month’s more strikes and disruption of global commodity markets before beginning a potentially risky land assault isn’t exactly what investors will want to hear currently, as Brent Crude remains north of $110 per barrel after another Iranian drone attack on the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait, which processes about 730,000 barrels of oil each day, per Al Jazeera.

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Super Micro dives after co-founder charged with allegedly smuggling AI chips to China

Super Micro Computer plunged over 25% in premarket trading on Friday after its co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, another worker, and a company contractor, were charged by US prosecutors with allegedly conspiring to sell $2.5 billion worth of AI servers containing Nvidia chips to China, in violation of US export controls.

Super Micro was not named in the DOJ indictment, which was released on Thursday.

Prosecutors say the three charged suspects, including Liaw, used a pass-through company to place orders, making it appear the servers were meant for “legitimate commercial activity” while obscuring their actual “China-based end customers.”

Between 2024 and 2025, the pass-through company purchased roughly $2.5 billion worth of servers from Super Micro, including more than $510 million worth of US-assembled servers with Nvidia GPUs diverted to China between late April and mid-May 2025 alone, per the indictment.

markets

FedEx jumps after boosting full-year profit forecast

FedEx is up more than 7% in early trading on Friday after the delivery company posted strong sales and boosted its full-year guidance in its Q3 earnings results, released Thursday.

For fiscal year 2026, ending May 31, the company raised its:

  • Revenue growth forecast, to be between 6% and 6.5% year-over-year, from 5-6% previously and topping analyst estimates for 5.9% growth (compiled by Bloomberg).

  • Adjusted EPS (excluding certain costs, including a planned spin-off of the Freight segment), to be between $19.30 to $20.10, up from a previous range of $17.80 to $19.00.

FedEx also reported better-than-expected results for the quarter ended February 28, 2026, including:

  • Revenue of $24 billion, about 2% ahead of analyst forecasts of $23.5 billion.

  • Diluted adjusted EPS of $4.41, also above Wall Street estimates of $4.17.

Celebrating “another quarter of strong financial results,” the company's management highlighted its FedEx’s main Express segment, improved by “higher U.S. domestic and International Priority package yields, continued cost savings from transformation initiatives, and increased U.S. domestic package volume,” in its press release. The company is planning a spin-off of its Freight division into a new publicly traded company on June 1, 2026.

Often seen as something of a bellwether, owing to its billions of touchpoints across both consumers and enterprises, FedEx's results may offer some light relief to investors that the American consumption machine is still on track.

markets

Stocks get a jolt as Netanyahu says Israel is helping US efforts to open Strait of Hormuz

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference that his country is helping with US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, putting a jolt into stocks. 

The S&P 500, which had been solidly negative for most of the day, turned slightly green after the remarks. The rebound lost a bit of steam shortly thereafter, but stocks still remained higher than they were before Netanyahu’s comments.

“Israel is helping, in its own way, in intel and other means, the American efforts to open the Strait of [Hormuz],” Netanyahu said, according to a video of the press conference.

Here are another few interesting headlines coming across from the presser, per Reuters:

*NETANYAHU: IRAN HAS NO CAPACITY TO ENRICH URANIUM OR MAKE BALLISTIC MISSILES AFTER 20 DAYS OF WAR

*NETANYAHU: CAN’T DO A REVOLUTION FROM THE AIR, THERE NEEDS TO BE A GROUND COMPONENT AS WELL

*NETANYAHU: ISRAEL ACTED ALONE AGAINST SOUTH PARS

*NETANYAHU: TRUMP ASKED US TO HOLD OFF ON FUTURE SUCH ATTACKS

And here’s how the market reacted instantly after his comments:

“Israel is helping, in its own way, in intel and other means, the American efforts to open the Strait of [Hormuz],” Netanyahu said, according to a video of the press conference.

Here are another few interesting headlines coming across from the presser, per Reuters:

*NETANYAHU: IRAN HAS NO CAPACITY TO ENRICH URANIUM OR MAKE BALLISTIC MISSILES AFTER 20 DAYS OF WAR

*NETANYAHU: CAN’T DO A REVOLUTION FROM THE AIR, THERE NEEDS TO BE A GROUND COMPONENT AS WELL

*NETANYAHU: ISRAEL ACTED ALONE AGAINST SOUTH PARS

*NETANYAHU: TRUMP ASKED US TO HOLD OFF ON FUTURE SUCH ATTACKS

And here’s how the market reacted instantly after his comments:

markets

Gold tumbles as market sees Fed shifting toward inflation fighting

Gold and gold miners tumbled Thursday, as the rolling Iran war energy crisis revived worries about inflation and pushed the market to take additional rate cuts this year off the table.

Gold (SPDR Gold Shares ETF) futures dropped roughly 6% shortly after 12 p.m. ET, hammering share prices for miners Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan. Silver (iShares Silver Trust) futures were down nearly 9%.

The decline in precious metals came alongside another sharp rise in energy prices. US benchmark crude oil (United States Oil Fund LP) and natural gas prices both jumped more than 3% after major Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. US retail gasoline prices tracked by the American Automobile Association hit $3.884, up 33% from the end of last month, when a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran ignited hostilities.

Normally, gold prices are seen as a hedge on inflation, which might suggest that they should rise alongside expectations for persistent price increases.

But the speed of the Iran war energy shock — which will add to inflationary pressures already visible in recent economic reports, such as this week’s Producer Price Index, and could become a political problem for the Trump administration — has nudged traders to change their their views on whether the Federal Reserve would be able to deliver the rate cuts widely expected just a few weeks ago.

Yields on shorter-maturity US Treasury notes shot higher Thursday, reflecting expectations for tighter monetary policy. And prices in the market for federal funds futures suggest traders no longer see the US central bank cutting interest rates this year at all. (Early this month, market pricing implied expectations for two more cuts this year.)

On Thursday, yields fell on longer-term US government securities, such as the US 30-year bond. That suggests the market thinks a Fed shift toward inflation fighting and away from rate cutting would likely result in some decline in growth and/or inflation, helping to explain the drop in precious metals prices, as there would be less of a need for inflation hedges in such a scenario.

The decline in precious metals came alongside another sharp rise in energy prices. US benchmark crude oil (United States Oil Fund LP) and natural gas prices both jumped more than 3% after major Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. US retail gasoline prices tracked by the American Automobile Association hit $3.884, up 33% from the end of last month, when a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran ignited hostilities.

Normally, gold prices are seen as a hedge on inflation, which might suggest that they should rise alongside expectations for persistent price increases.

But the speed of the Iran war energy shock — which will add to inflationary pressures already visible in recent economic reports, such as this week’s Producer Price Index, and could become a political problem for the Trump administration — has nudged traders to change their their views on whether the Federal Reserve would be able to deliver the rate cuts widely expected just a few weeks ago.

Yields on shorter-maturity US Treasury notes shot higher Thursday, reflecting expectations for tighter monetary policy. And prices in the market for federal funds futures suggest traders no longer see the US central bank cutting interest rates this year at all. (Early this month, market pricing implied expectations for two more cuts this year.)

On Thursday, yields fell on longer-term US government securities, such as the US 30-year bond. That suggests the market thinks a Fed shift toward inflation fighting and away from rate cutting would likely result in some decline in growth and/or inflation, helping to explain the drop in precious metals prices, as there would be less of a need for inflation hedges in such a scenario.

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