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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer speak to the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, May 11, 2025 (Valentin Flauraud/Getty Images)

Stock futures soar as US agrees to slash Chinese tariffs to 30% for 90 days

Futures tied to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) rose as much as 3% early on Monday morning.

Global markets were jolted into the green early on Monday after a bilateral statement from the United States and China signaled a reprieve in the trade war that has been top of investors’ concerns for much of this year.

Per the statement, the additional levies added by two of President Trump’s executive orders, those numbered 14259 and 14266, are set to be removed, with the earlier order, EO 14257, modified so that the US is “suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an initial period of 90 days, while retaining the remaining ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles pursuant to the terms of said Order.” China is also modifying its rates. The end result of the relevant arithmetic is such that:

  • US tariffs on Chinese goods will drop to 30%, from 145%.*

  • Chinese tariffs on US goods will drop to 10%, from 125%.

The announcement resets the trade clock for the world’s two largest economies, giving representatives 90 days to hammer out a more detailed deal.

At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust is up as much as 3%, similar to the rise of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which closed up 2.98%.

Futures contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were even more elevated, rising more than 3.5%, led higher by tech giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla.

European markets were more modestly green, with the STOXX 600 up 0.5%. In early trading in London, the FTSE 100 was broadly flat, with investors pausing buying after a breathless rally that saw the index notch 15 consecutive gains.

*This includes the original 20% levy, introduced by the Trump administration in response to fentanyl.

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StubHub plunges on big earnings miss in a Taylor Swift-less Q4

Shares of ticket marketplace StubHub are down 16% in premarket trading following weaker-than-expected earnings results.

StubHub posted a loss of $1.56 per share, significantly worse than the $0.01 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet had expected. It booked $449.2 million in revenue, below the $485 million consensus and down about 16% from a year earlier.

Gross merch sales reached $2.3 billion in Q4, which StubHub pointed out would represent 6% year-over-year growth excluding the impact of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. The figure was also below expectations.

Looking ahead, StubHub expects full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $400 million and $420 million. Analysts had expected $704.4 million.

Legal changes also threaten to squeeze StubHub in the year ahead. Earlier this month, lawmakers in both New York and California — two of the world’s largest live music markets — introduced legislation that would cap concert ticket resale prices to the ticket’s original face value.

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IREN tumbles after unveiling plan to sell as much as $6 billion in stock

Bitcoin miner turned data center play IREN is down early after announcing an amended share sale agreement that would allow it to sell as much as $6 billion worth of ordinary shares.

(Such share sales can generate a negative market reaction because, if consummated, they dilute existing shareholders.)

The company said in its statement that it had already sold some $1 billion in ordinary shares under a previous share sale agreement from August.

IREN said it would use the cash from the potential sale of new shares “to contribute to funding our growth initiatives (including, but not limited to, hardware purchases and acquisition and development of data center sites and facilities), and for working capital and general corporate purposes.”

The company said in its statement that it had already sold some $1 billion in ordinary shares under a previous share sale agreement from August.

IREN said it would use the cash from the potential sale of new shares “to contribute to funding our growth initiatives (including, but not limited to, hardware purchases and acquisition and development of data center sites and facilities), and for working capital and general corporate purposes.”

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Credo surges, Lumentum and Coherent slump after Broadcom says major customers are sticking with copper cables in chip racks through 2028

The future of connectivity is not now, and that’s great news for Credo Technology Group.

During Broadcom’s Q1 earnings call, CEO Hock Tan said that its custom chip clients would be staying with direct attach copper cables to connect components inside racks through 2028 rather than utilizing optical solutions.

Having many major chip buyers stay copper-centric is a positive for Credo, whose active electrical cables increase the transmission capabilities of these copper cables. Tan’s remarks are seemingly pushing back the timetable for when more cutting-edge technologies (that include lasers!) will be in ascendance. Shares of Credo are up nearly 10% as of 8:05 am ET.

This comes just days after Nvidia invested $2 billion each in a pair of advanced optics companies, Lumentum and Coherent. Both of those stocks, which had surged on the vote of confidence from the world’s largest publicly traded company, are 4% and 5% lower, respectively, in premarket trading on Thursday.

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Nvidia reportedly halts production of H200 chips for sale to China in favor of Vera Rubin ramp

Selling H200s to China is proving more difficult than Nvidia had anticipated.

The Financial Times reports that the chip designer has asked TSMC to stop output of the H200 processors and instead produce Vera Rubin offerings, its upcoming flagship edition, citing two people familiar with the matter.

There’s likely a lot more conviction that megacap tech companies outside of China will appreciate any supply boost for these next-generation processors than the US-China trade and regulatory morass that’s complicated H200 sales will suddenly be swept away.

Nvidia had H200s in inventory and, per the FT, also already produced 250,000 of these chips — so the sales opportunity is still there, but just diminished for now.

The loose sequencing on how we got here, based on myriad reports on the topic:

  • Nvidia has wanted to sell AI chips to China;

  • Back in December, US President Donald Trump said this would be allowed for the H200, a generation that was much more powerful than China produced domestically, but not cutting-edge tech (as well as chips with similar specs from other producers);

  • Leading Chinese tech companies wanted to buy a lot of these chips;

  • Nvidia called on TSMC to increase production of these chips in expectation of realizing a sales opportunity as high as $54 billion for 2026;

  • China would prefer its companies to purchase from domestic producers to reduce their dependence on US technology;

  • The US wants to limit the total number of these newly permitted AI chips that can get into China as well as how many each buyer can purchase;

  • Nvidia, which had planned to have its first shipments of H200s there by the Lunar New Year, still hasn’t sold any of these chips to China.

The twists and turns here, and conflicting media coverage, has been maddening to try and keep track of. I cannot imagine the level of frustration for an executive attempting to navigate their operations through this haze.

Maybe the real H200 sales were the friends we never made along the way.

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