Markets
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Luke Kawa

Stock-market exposure saw its “biggest weekly jump on record” after the election, says Deutsche Bank

The stampede into the stock market following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory was the most intense on record, according to Deutsche Bank.

“Our measure of aggregate equity positioning rose massively after the election, the biggest weekly jump on record in our data going back to 2010,” wrote strategists led by Parag Thatte. “Positioning rose from just above neutral to a four-month high, near the upper end of its long-run band.” 

Equity positioning indicator
Source: Deutsche Bank

Discretionary investors’ positioning is now at its 96th percentile, while exposure by systematic strategies (like vol control funds or CTAs) is not as extreme relative to history.

At the sector level, cyclicals — particularly financials — have been the prime beneficiary of this increased appetite for US stocks. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund has been the best-performing S&P 500 sector ETF since the November 5 vote.

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Luke Kawa
2h
The early rally in US stocks ran out of steam as government shutdown looms

Stocks still ended the day in the green, pulled higher by tech.

Close up of a majestic brown and black horned bull lying near a large boulder
J. Edward Moreno
2h
Pharma company Aurinia falls after FDA official uses LinkedIn to call out lupus drug

Lupkynis, which was approved in 2021, is Aurinia’s primary source of revenue.

Food And Drug Administration Headquarters In Maryland
markets
Luke Kawa

Cava may be an unlikely victim of a potential US government shutdown

Government shutdowns typically aren’t a big deal for the stock market as a whole.

But for Cava, which was founded in Maryland and is headquartered in Washington, DC, there’s the prospect of forgone sales in the event that government employees suddenly have no cause to frequent the fast-casual Mediterranean chain, which means emptier tills as bellies get filled elsewhere.

At the end of Q2, Cava had 398 locations. It currently boasts seven in the district proper, at least 14 a close drive away in Virginia, and 25 in Maryland.

Cava’s annual report singled out the Washington, DC/Maryland/Virginia metropolitan area as having “a high concentration of restaurants” in discussing risk factors for the company. And it may be a particularly bad time to be a slop bowl seller around the nation’s capital.

The potential shutdown would be the latest challenge for Cava as it struggles to stand out amid a myriad of lunch options for working professionals and following the recently announced departure of COO Jennifer Somers.

For what it’s worth, this is not the first time this year Cava has faced concerns about potential weakness in DC. During its Q1 earnings call, Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore questioned Cava’s leadership about a potential impact from DOGE given its “fairly big footprint” in the metro area, and at the time CFO Tricia Tolivar said the company hadn’t really seen evidence of metro-specific softness.

markets
Matt Phillips

Robinhood surges as prediction markets gain traction

Robinhood jumped to an all-time intraday record of more than $132 late Monday morning on growing optimism about the brokerage’s prediction markets business both on Wall Street and within the company’s own executive suite.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own stock as part of my compensation.)

Earlier in the day, Robinhood Chief Executive Vlad Tenev posted this tweet spotlighting that more than 4 billion event contracts have been traded on the platform since they began to be offered in February.

Analysts have also been focusing on the uptick in activity in the events contract business as a potential boon for the shares.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley published a note on Monday highlighting how trading volumes at prediction market company Kalshi soared to new records over the weekend as traders took positions on the outcomes of college and pro football games using event contracts.

Moley estimates that users at Robinhood — which partnered with Kalshi to offer contracts on games — account for between 25% and 35% of Kalshi’s daily event contract activity.

“We continue to expect HOOD will report ~2.5B of event contracts traded in 3Q25 which, at $0.01/contract, translates to ~$25M in revenue,” Moley wrote.

Luke Kawa
6h
“Follow the feds” replaces “follow the Fed” as financial market maxim

Taking a position in companies the US government has exposure to has worked out handsomely so far.

Donald Trump Campaigns For President In Arizona's Prescott Valley

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