Markets
Yiwen Lu

Trump victory lifts US stocks to all-time highs

The S&P 500 climbed 2.5%, closing the index at another fresh record for the 48th time this year. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.7%. Russell 2000, which tracks small caps that are more sensitive to US tax rates and less sensitive to trade barriers, outperformed all others on the day and up 5.8%. 

The Dollar Spot Index added 1.7%, its biggest one-day gain since June 2016. Interest rates were higher; the 10-year Treasury yield rose 15 basis points to 4.43%, the most since April this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now overwhelmingly expecting a 25-basis point cut at the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.

Of the 11 major sectors, only utilities, consumer staples, and real estate were down. 

The sectors that could benefit from Trump-related policies added the most today. The financial-sector ETF was up 6.1%, driven by a jump in both Synchrony Financial and Discover. Banks including KeyCorp, Capital One, and Citizens Bank were also among the biggest gainers on Wednesday. The industrial sector went up 3.9%. The energy sector advanced 3.8%. 

But crude oil was only modestly higher: the US benchmark was up 0.7% at settlement, while the global benchmark rose only 0.2%. 

In addition, a slew of GOP-associated stocks gained ground today. Private prison company GEO Group rose 42.1%, and CoreCivic climbed 29%. Domestic steel companies like Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Steel Dynamics were having their best day in years. Teslaled Magnificent 7, up 14.8% on the day. Bitcoin hit records again and is now trading at $76,725.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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