Yiwen Lu11/6/24

Trump victory lifts US stocks to all-time highs

The S&P 500 climbed 2.5%, closing the index at another fresh record for the 48th time this year. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.7%. Russell 2000, which tracks small caps that are more sensitive to US tax rates and less sensitive to trade barriers, outperformed all others on the day and up 5.8%.

The Dollar Spot Index added 1.7%, its biggest one-day gain since June 2016. Interest rates were higher; the 10-year Treasury yield rose 15 basis points to 4.43%, the most since April this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now overwhelmingly expecting a 25-basis point cut at the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.

Of the 11 major sectors, only utilities, consumer staples, and real estate were down.

The sectors that could benefit from Trump-related policies added the most today. The financial-sector ETF was up 6.1%, driven by a jump in both Synchrony Financial and Discover. Banks including KeyCorp, Capital One, and Citizens Bank were also among the biggest gainers on Wednesday. The industrial sector went up 3.9%. The energy sector advanced 3.8%.

But crude oil was only modestly higher: the US benchmark was up 0.7% at settlement, while the global benchmark rose only 0.2%.

In addition, a slew of GOP-associated stocks gained ground today. Private prison company GEO Group rose 42.1%, and CoreCivic climbed 29%. Domestic steel companies like Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Steel Dynamics were having their best day in years. Teslaled Magnificent 7, up 14.8% on the day. Bitcoin hit records again and is now trading at $76,725.

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Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks jump as Trump postpones strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure

A heat map of the S&P 500 was bright green on news of a potential ceasefire on energy asset strikes.

Cowboy Riding a Bull - stock illustration

markets

Matt Phillips16h

Palantir pops as its Maven AI targeting system made “official program” for DOD

Palantir jumped Monday following reports that the US military is making official its long-term commitment to buying and using Palantir’s AI-powered data analysis and targeting program.

Reuters’ David Jeans reported over the weekend:

“Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military.

In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters ‘with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains.’”

Key benefits of being named an “official program of record” include eligibility for permanent funding from the Department of Defense. The designation also implies a long-term commitment to a technology, which significantly decreases competitive threats from alternate military contractors and vendors.

In other words, being a “program of record” implies significant long-term cash flow in the future from the US Treasury to Palantir, and thus the market reaction.

Exclusive: Pentagon to adopt Palantir AI as core US military system, memo says

Exclusive: Pentagon to adopt Palantir AI as core US military system, memo says

“Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military.

In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters ‘with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains.’”

Key benefits of being named an “official program of record” include eligibility for permanent funding from the Department of Defense. The designation also implies a long-term commitment to a technology, which significantly decreases competitive threats from alternate military contractors and vendors.

In other words, being a “program of record” implies significant long-term cash flow in the future from the US Treasury to Palantir, and thus the market reaction.

markets

J. Edward Moreno19h

Lawmakers to introduce bill banning sports contracts on prediction markets: WSJ

Sports-betting stocks rose after The Wall Street Journal reported that a bipartisan pair of lawmakers are seeking to ban Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated companies from offering sports-related contracts on prediction markets.

Reportedly sponsored by Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and John Curtis, R-Utah, the bill would prevent companies like Kalshi or Polymarket’s US arm from posting event contracts related to the outcome of sporting events, a market that accounts for a sizable chunk of their volumes.

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Exclusive | Lawmakers to Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets

Exclusive | Lawmakers to Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Stocks jolt higher after Trump says US will postpone Iran energy strikes for a “five day period”

Global equity markets were sharply in the red once again until President Trump posted on Truth Social, detailing a five-day break from strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after “productive” talks.

Donald Trump Social Media Illustrations

markets

Claire Yubin Oh19h

Synopsys rises on WSJ report of Elliott’s new multibillion-dollar stake

Software company Synopsys is up 3% in premarket trading on Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported that Elliott Investment Management, a well-known activist fund, has taken a multibillion-dollar stake in the company.

Elliott Managing Partner Jesse Cohn told the WSJ that “Synopsys is essential to the global chip industry,” and that it is “uniquely positioned to benefit” as the AI industry continues to require more capital, more complex chips, and therefore, more software to design them.

The firm’s investment is predicated on a “clear opportunity for Synopsys’ financial performance to more fully reflect the value it delivers.” While memory stocks like Micron have been on a tear recently, Synopsys has dropped 8% over the past year, lagging behind its biggest rival, Cadence Design Systems, which is up 6% in the same period.

Citing people familiar with the investment in Synopsys, the Journal reports that Elliott sees room for the company to boost sales and improve its margins to be more in line with that of Cadence. In its fiscal year 2025, Cadence notched an adjusted operating margin of nearly 45%, while Synopsys eked out only 37%.

Exclusive | Activist Elliott Builds Big Stake in Chip-Design Software Maker Synopsys

Exclusive | Activist Elliott Builds Big Stake in Chip-Design Software Maker Synopsys

Elliott Managing Partner Jesse Cohn told the WSJ that “Synopsys is essential to the global chip industry,” and that it is “uniquely positioned to benefit” as the AI industry continues to require more capital, more complex chips, and therefore, more software to design them.

The firm’s investment is predicated on a “clear opportunity for Synopsys’ financial performance to more fully reflect the value it delivers.” While memory stocks like Micron have been on a tear recently, Synopsys has dropped 8% over the past year, lagging behind its biggest rival, Cadence Design Systems, which is up 6% in the same period.

Citing people familiar with the investment in Synopsys, the Journal reports that Elliott sees room for the company to boost sales and improve its margins to be more in line with that of Cadence. In its fiscal year 2025, Cadence notched an adjusted operating margin of nearly 45%, while Synopsys eked out only 37%.

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