Luke Kawa12/18/24

Stocks crater as Federal Reserve’s inflation concern swells

The S&P 500 fell 3% — its second-worst day of 2024. The Nasdaq 100 slumped 3.6% and the Russell 2000 cratered 4.4%, its biggest loss this year.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF closed below its November 5 level, erasing all of its postelection gains, as did small caps.

Day 13 in a row of breadth is bad, but this time even worse: the S&P 500’s advance-decline line was extremely negative. The number of falling stocks outnumbered those that rose by 464, the lowest reading this year.

The options market thought this would be the sleepiest Federal Reserve meeting of the year, and boy was it wrong. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were comfortably in the green ahead of the central bank’s rate decision. The Fed’s projections showed heightened concern about inflation risk given recent readings that have surprised to the upside as well as potential policies that might be pursued by the incoming Trump administration.

The median monetary policymaker thinks two interest-rate cuts would be appropriate in 2025; the market swung even more dramatically and now is pricing in only one 25-basis point reduction.

Some lowlights among individual stocks: Tesla fell 8.3%, Broadcom retreated by 6.9%, and GameStop was down 8.5%.

Jabil Circuit managed to book a strong 7.3% gain on the heels of its quarterly results and upgraded sales forecast.

Quantum Computing was one of the other rare Fed-proof stocks out there: shares were up about 40% heading into the announcement, and finished even higher than that.

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Matt Phillips2h

Sandisk and Micron slip as Samsung rushes new product into production

Sandisk and Micron, which have boomed along with prices for the memory chips needed for the AI data center build-out, are limping behind the broader market Monday after a weekend report that South Korean chip giant Samsung is beginning “mass production” of its latest memory product, HBM4, slightly earlier than expected.

US memory chip maker Micron also makes HBM (high-bandwidth memory), which is essentially a large memory product designed for AI applications.

Sandisk doesn’t make HBM. But it is developing a kind of high-bandwidth flash NAND memory product that is intended to function as an HBM option for AI data centers.

More broadly, signs that Asian production giants are responding to high prices by ramping up supply means that the nosebleed pricing of memory chips that quintupled Sandisk’s profit over the last year might not last forever.

Samsung to begin mass production of HBM4 chips later this month: sources | Yonhap News Agency

Samsung moves first on HBM4 in bid to regain AI memory edge

US memory chip maker Micron also makes HBM (high-bandwidth memory), which is essentially a large memory product designed for AI applications.

Sandisk doesn’t make HBM. But it is developing a kind of high-bandwidth flash NAND memory product that is intended to function as an HBM option for AI data centers.

More broadly, signs that Asian production giants are responding to high prices by ramping up supply means that the nosebleed pricing of memory chips that quintupled Sandisk’s profit over the last year might not last forever.

Novo Nordisk has lost most of its post-Wegovy market cap gains

A weak sales outlook and a copycat scare capped a brutal week for Europe’s one-time most valuable company.

Still life of a bottle of the new Wegovy semaglutide tablets on a womans hand.

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Matt Phillips5h

Oracle rises as DA Davidson gives it a “buy” rating because of OpenAI positivity

Oracle rose after receiving an upgrade to start the week. Analysts at DA Davidson bumped up their view on the stock from “neutral” to “buy” and kept their $180 price target on the shares. That’s about 27% higher than Friday’s close.

Their shift isn’t so much about Oracle but about OpenAI, which Davidson folks now think is increasingly likely to be able to make good on billions of dollars’ worth of planned spending on computing power at Oracle and other hyperscalers. They wrote:

“We are now more positive on OpenAI, based on changes in strategy, new frontier models, the pressure on Google’s competitors from its recent ascent, and progress on its fundraising efforts. Most importantly, we believe OpenAI already has as much as $40B of cash on hand and may be raising as much as another $100B by the end of the quarter, which should help pay for the data centers Oracle is building for OpenAI. Since the market is currently assigning the OpenAI relationship a negative value, we believe the fundraise will serve as a catalyst for outperformance.”

For OpenAI’s part, CEO Sam Altman just told employees that the company was “back to exceeding 10% monthly growth,” according to CNBC reporting.

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Max Knoblauch5h

Roblox rises following upgrade and price target hike from Roth Capital as growth in older players boosts optimism

Shares of Roblox are up in early trading on Monday following a price target hike and an upgrade from “neutral” to “buy” from Roth Capital.

Roth bumped its price target up from $78 to $84, with analyst Eric Handler citing the company’s “sustainable virtuous circle where continuously improving creator/development tools are producing higher quality games, which enhances the user experience, and drives higher engagement.”

Handler also noted Roblox’s success in growing its 18-plus player base, which increased 50% last year and, per Roth, “monetized 40% higher than under-18-users.”

The platform surged after reporting its fourth-quarter earnings last week, with stronger-than-expected full-year bookings guidance. Still, the stock remains below levels in January, before the debut of Google’s AI interactive worlds generator, Project Genie.

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AppLovin jumps after CapitalWatch announces “significant revisions” to negative report but says stance on company “remains unchanged”

AppLovin is trading to the upside on Monday morning after a financial research agency issued a “correction and apology” regarding some of the claims in its negative report on the company and its principals.

Shares of the ad tech firm tumbled in January as CaptialWatch called it “the ultimate monument to 21st-century new-type transnational financial crime.”

But after “a rigorous internal review,” CapitalWatch determined that the allegations of money laundering directed at one of AppLovin’s largest shareholders, Hao Tang, were based on a judicial document that was interpreted erroneously, and that his connections with other parties in the report “were inaccurate and failed to meet our publication standards.”

However, the outlet still argues that it’s right on the company, but just didn’t have enough evidence to single out Tang individually. Per CapitalWatch:

“Our review concluded that while the macro data and transaction structures highlighted in the original report warrant market scrutiny, the information currently available is legally insufficient to attribute these complex capital operations directly and exclusively to Mr. Tang. We have chosen to retract the allegations directed at Mr. Tang personally out of strict adherence to evidentiary principles, not as a denial of the objective market phenomena observed.”

“Our stance regarding the complex financial structure of AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) remains unchanged.”

AppLovin forcefully denied the original report, saying it was “rife with false, misleading, and nonsensical allegations.”

The firm, like most in the software space, has floundered recently amid potential disruptive threats from AI tools and new entrants.

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