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Stocks jolt higher after Trump says US will postpone Iran energy strikes for a "five day period"

Global equity markets were sharply in the red once again, until President Trump posted on Truth Social, detailing a five day break on strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after “productive” talks.

Hyunsoo Rim

Global markets were on track to open the week in the red once again as the US-Iran war entered its fourth week with escalating threats from both sides.

On Saturday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the US would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants, “starting with the biggest one first,” if Tehran doesn’t fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours — or Monday evening Easter Time based on the timing on the post.

In a follow-up post Monday morning, however, Trump said he would postpone any strike “for a five day period," citing "very good and productive conversations" with Iran over the past two days. The post sent stocks jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 Index gaining more than 3% in a matter of minutes, from down ~0.7% to up 2.4%.

News of the potential ceasefire on energy asset strikes sent Brent Crude down sharply, from $113 a barrel to as low as ~$96, although markets have since reversed some of the immediate reaction to Trump's post.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had warned on Sunday that any strikes on Iran’s power plants could “immediately” trigger retaliatory attacks on energy and oil infrastructure across the region, driving oil prices higher for a prolonged period.

That had set the stage coming into Monday morning for another risk-off day of trading as IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol detailed the extent of the damage, confirming Monday morning that at least 40 energy facilities across nine countries have already been “severely or very severely” damaged. The conflict has reduced global oil supplies by roughly 11 million barrels per day and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies by 140 billion cubic metres, according to Birol — a combined disruption that he said exceeds the 1970s oil shocks and the 2022 gas shortages from the Russia-Ukraine war put together.

Global markets had been deep in the red before the reversal as investors priced in the weekend’s escalating threats: stocks fell sharply across Asia-Pacific, with Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both closing 3.5% lower, and South Korea’s Kospi plunging 6.5% on Monday. With Trump's post flipping the script, however, Europe’s Stoxx 600 swung from down 2.3% to up 1.5% Monday morning.

Precious metals — which have been crushed since the Fed held rates — have also pared some of their losses, with spot gold now down 3.2% to ~$4,340 per ounce, recovering from a nearly 8% plunge earlier in the session. The metal has still shed roughly 25% since hitting a record high near $5,600 in January. Silver, which has nearly halved since the war began, is down about 2.5%.

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J. Edward Moreno1h

Lawmakers to introduce bill banning sports contracts on prediction markets: WSJ

Sports betting stocks rose after the Wall Street Journal reported that a bipartisan pair of lawmakers are seeking to ban Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated companies from offering sports-related contracts on prediction markets.

Reportedly sponsored by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and John Curtis (R-Utah), the bill would prevent companies like Kalshi or Polymarket’s US arm from posting event contracts related to the outcome of sporting events, a market that accounts for a sizable chunk of their volumes.

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Exclusive | Lawmakers to Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets

Claire Yubin Oh2h

Synopsys rises on WSJ report of Elliott’s new multibillion-dollar stake

Software company Synopsys is up 3% in premarket trading on Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported that Elliott Investment Management, a well-known activist fund, has taken a multibillion-dollar stake in the company.

Elliott Managing Partner Jesse Cohn told the WSJ that “Synopsys is essential to the global chip industry,” and that it is “uniquely positioned to benefit” as the AI industry continues to require more capital, more complex chips, and therefore, more software to design them.

The firm’s investment is predicated on a “clear opportunity for Synopsys’ financial performance to more fully reflect the value it delivers.” While memory stocks like Micron have been on a tear recently, Synopsys has dropped 8% over the past year, lagging behind its biggest rival, Cadence Design Systems, which is up 6% in the same period.

Citing people familiar with the investment in Synopsys, the Journal reports that Elliott sees room for the company to boost sales and improve its margins to be more in line with that of Cadence. In its fiscal year 2025, Cadence notched an adjusted operating margin of nearly 45%, while Synopsys eked out only 37%.

Exclusive | Activist Elliott Builds Big Stake in Chip-Design Software Maker Synopsys

Matt Phillips, Tasha Matsumoto

3/20/26

Stocks sink as the war escalates; Russell 2000 enters correction territory

The S&P 500 closed lower for the fourth consecutive week as the US deployed more troops and warships to the Middle East.

Alaskan Brown Bears (Ursus horribilis) fighting in a river

Matt Phillips3/20/26

Exxon and Chevron surge as oil rises; gold keeps getting clobbered

Exxon and Chevron jumped again on Friday, the two largest positive contributors to the S&P 500 as of midday, even as the broader market remained mired in the red.

The two giant US energy companies are also on track to notch another in a series of new all-time highs as well Friday, and for obvious reasons.

Energy continues to be the bright spot for the S&P 500 since the start of the Iran war. (It is the only gainer of the 11 separate sectors that compose the blue-chip index, rising more than 7% in March.)

But energy’s gain has come with pain elsewhere. Since rising gas prices work mechanically as a tax on other forms of consumer spending, staples stocks have been hit hard, with the sector down more than 6% this month alone. Meanwhile, the inflationary pressure pushing the Fed away from further rate cuts continues to hit precious metals and miners. SPDR Gold Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust futures both fell further on Friday; they’re down roughly 10% and 15% for the week, respectively, and producers like Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan also continue to drop.

David Crowther3/20/26

Investors have been drawn to software stocks since the Iran war started — Figma has been an exception

Since the Iran war started, risky assets have been in the crosshairs. Stocks have sold off as oil prices spiked, the odds of rate cuts later this year have been slashed, and even the usual safe havens like gold and silver have been unreliable ports in the growing storm.

One port of refuge, however, has been in software stocks. As noted by my colleague Matt Phillips recently, a number of high-profile software names — the same ones that some pundits doomed to obsolescence because of AI just a few short weeks ago — have held up well. Design company Figma, however, has not been one of those names.

Figma’s stock has dropped 19% since the close of trading on February 27, while the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF has gained 2%.

Though still notching very respectable top-line growth, with sales up 40% last year, Figma is far from the “cash cow” stage of its life — perhaps why it’s been hit harder than peers such as Adobe, Workday, or Salesforce. Indeed, on a GAAP basis, Wall Street still expects the company to lose $477 million this year, as heavy stock-based compensation weighs on its profitability.

Figma’s pain was then compounded when Google announced a major update to Stitch on Wednesday — a product described as “an AI-native software design canvas that allows anyone to create, iterate and collaborate on high-fidelity UI from natural language.”

Debate is still raging on Reddit and other social media platforms as to whether Stitch, or other vibe-coding platforms and tools, will meaningfully eat into Figma’s core business. One user said that it “offers very little to experienced designers. It removes the tools Figma offers and delegates everything to AI. Figma at least has all the capabilities plus AI for people who want to use AI.” Another — complaining about the newly prohibitive cost of credits in Figma’s own AI-powered tool, Figma Make — was more bearish on Figma’s usefulness, saying that the number of credits the designer would need to use would cost $16,000 under Figma’s new pricing model.

For now, investors aren’t giving Figma the benefit of the doubt, with the stock down 12% in the last two days alone.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.