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A cargo ship pictured off the coast of Fujairah in the Strait of Hormuz on February 25, 2026 (Giuseppe Cacace/Getty Images)

Oil plunges and stocks jump as Trump and Iranian foreign minister say Strait of Hormuz is open, though uncertainty remains

Citing Israel-Lebanon agreement, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said on social media that the strait is “completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.” President Trump confirmed the news shortly thereafter.

Matt Phillips

Stocks rose (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and crude oil prices remained deeply in the red Friday as both the US and Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open, though there was uncertainty about the extent of the reopening.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that while ships can now pass through the strait, transit needs to be coordinated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Separately, President Trump declared on social media that the US blockade of Iran’s ports would remain in full force until “until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.”

Meanwhile, a US Navy advisory suggested shippers consider avoiding the area, as the threat of mines “is not fully understood.” A maritime security company advised clients not to try to cross, telling them to wait for additional guidance, according to Dow Jones.

Speaking to Barrons, Matt Smith, director of commodities research at energy data firm Kpler, said it will take hours to know whether the reopening is in fact taking place.

The market’s gains began with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s post early Friday declaring the strait open for the duration of the ceasefire, as a result of the deal between Israel and Lebanon to halt hostilities.

Shortly after Araghchi’s statement, President Trump posted on Truth Social that “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!”

As of midday, the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), Nasdaq 100 (ProShares UltraPro QQQ), and Russell 2000 (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) all remained in solidly positive territory.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, tumbled on the announcement. Shortly before noon, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures were down by more than 10%.

Fuel-sensitive sectors of the stock market, like airlines and cruise companies, are up big. United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines all jumped, as did cruise lines Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line, and Royal Caribbean.

Going the other way were chemical and energy shares, which had soared along with prices of goods whose supply was constrained by the closure of the choke point to the Persian Gulf.

Chemical stocks — Dow, Inc., CF Industries, and LyondellBasell among them — tumbled, as did natural gas drillers APA Corporation, EOG Resources, Devon Energy, and Coterra Energy.  

While the announcement about the strait didn’t signal that hostilities with Iran have conclusively ended, a broad swath of investors and traders rushed to buy.

They included fundamentally minded investors who expected lower US gasoline prices in the future, as well as retail traders eager to ride the growing wave of good vibes that have washed over the market recently, carrying the S&P 500 to new record highs.

Goldman Sachs’ meme stock basket jumped more than 3% in early trading, with constituents like Hims & Hers, Strategy, and SoundHound AI rallying.

A separate Goldman basket of companies tied to spending by middle-income consumers was up even more, with large gains for companies like Boot Barn, Yeti, and restaurant chain Brinker International as the market seemed to price in a decline in gasoline prices, which act as a tax on consumers.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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