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WH Briefing Iran 4/6/26
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Stocks sink and oil spikes as traders price in enduring, worsening Mideast war

Stocks and oil are building in more risk premium to deal with the perceived increased probability of a more drawn-out disruption to global energy supplies and shipments.

Luke Kawa

US stocks are sinking while oil futures spike as traders price in a worsening of the Mideast war that they had hoped would end imminently.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures are trading at $117.63, their highest level during this conflict outside of the Sunday night open on March 8. And the SPDR S&P 500 ETF was down about 1.2% at its lows of the day, with the Invesco QQQ Trust faring even worse.

The New York Times is reporting that Iran has stopped negotiation efforts with the US. And after pushing back previous deadlines, US President Donald Trump has pledged that if a deal to end the conflict that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not reached by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, the US will attack the country’s power plants and bridges.

Stock futures returned to negative territory around 6:25 a.m. after Iranian state-sponsored media reported on explosions at Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of the Gulf nation’s oil exports. Fox News later reported that the US hit military targets but also unintentionally struck a landing dock.

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. “However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

The “WHO KNOWS?” uncertainty of it all is prompting traders in stocks and oil to build in an additional risk premium to deal with the heightened risk of a more drawn-out disruption to global energy supplies and shipments.

That’s the opposite of what markets did on Monday, when investors were in a holding pattern and not building in any sort of event premium related to military action on Tuesday night. The trading range in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF on Monday was the smallest since before the conflict began.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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