Surprise! US economic data are finally beating expectations again

Citi’s US economic surprise index – a gauge of whether data released recently has exceeded or fallen short of analysts’ estimates – is back in positive territory for the first time since May.

This isn’t just a case of the economic data being able to tiptoe over a very low bar as economists get gloomier and gloomier. The pickup in economic surprises has also coincided with a turn in the data. The Citi Economic Data Change, which tracks US activity relative to its one-year average, has been on the mend since late August, improving from -160 to -70.

Solid data – albeit, with lingering concerns about the state of the job market – are a big reason why US stocks have had their best opening three quarters to a year since 1997.

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Credit markets have a “debt” problem, not a “risk” problem

We’re getting a lot of borrowing, and that borrowing is risk-reducing (for now!)

New York City Architecture And Monuments

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7/13/26

Meet the newly public, Bezos-backed company that’s recreating the sun and stars

General Fusion CEO Greg Twinney spoke with Sherwood News from the Nasdaq during the stock’s first day of trading.

J. Edward Moreno7/7/26

SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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7/2/26

US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

Floridians Seek Employment Opportunities At Job Fair In Sunrise

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7/1/26

Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings

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