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The job-openings-to-job-seekers ratio is getting smaller

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released some pretty underwhelming US jobs data, with only 12,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added last month — the lowest figure since December 2020, and considerably less than the reported 223,000 new jobs added this September.

The last major economic report before America heads to the polls, the smaller-than-expected growth is explained in part by the unprecedented impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as recent national strike action. But, as Luke Kawa noted, what was more worrying were the revisions to previous months: August job growth, first reported as +142K, was revised to +78K, the worst reading since December 2020.

Job openings vs unemployment chart
Sherwood News

Though it might not have always felt like it, for much of the past six years (pandemic-craziness aside), it’s been a job seeker’s market, with more job openings than people unemployed. The latest JOLTS data revealed that the ratio of job openings to job seekers is narrowing, as job growth has continued to slow.

The last major economic report before America heads to the polls, the smaller-than-expected growth is explained in part by the unprecedented impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as recent national strike action. But, as Luke Kawa noted, what was more worrying were the revisions to previous months: August job growth, first reported as +142K, was revised to +78K, the worst reading since December 2020.

Job openings vs unemployment chart
Sherwood News

Though it might not have always felt like it, for much of the past six years (pandemic-craziness aside), it’s been a job seeker’s market, with more job openings than people unemployed. The latest JOLTS data revealed that the ratio of job openings to job seekers is narrowing, as job growth has continued to slow.

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Advance Auto Parts climbs as store closures power earnings beat amid revamp

Shares of Advance Auto Parts are up more than 8% in early trading on Friday, following the release of the company’s fourth-quarter results.

Advance Auto posted adjusted earnings of $0.86 per share in Q4, more than twice the $0.41 per share expected by analysts polled by FactSet. Same-store sales grew 1.1%, below the 2.2% consensus.

The retailer closed 522 stores in its fiscal year 2025 as part of an overhaul it first announced in 2024. It plans to open between 40 and 45 stores this year.

Looking ahead, Advance Auto said it expects comparable-store sales to grow between 1% and 2% in 2026. Wall Street expected 2.13%.

markets

Applied Materials soars as Wall Street scrambles to boost price targets after “narrative-changing quarter”

Wall Street has fresh conviction that Applied Materials is a winner as the AI boom forces an expansion of chipmaking capacity.

The semicap company reported a top- and bottom-line beat, along with Q2 guidance that exceeded estimates, after the close on Thursday, sending shares sharply higher. Applied Materials is trading up double digits as of 8 a.m. ET.

“This is finally the narrative-changing quarter that we have been waiting for,” wrote Needham & Co. analyst Charles Shi, who boosted his price target to $440 from $390. “With AMAT shaking off the bad China narrative and returning to a strong AI-driven beat-and-raise cycle, we expect AMAT valuation gap vs. peers will narrow as AMAT should re-rate higher.”

The numbers speak for themselves, but the words on the conference call didn’t hurt either.

“Management’s decidedly more constructive tone on the call (relative to a more muted/conservative tone on the last call) we think was underpinned by a sharp acceleration in customer orders and activity levels in the quarter,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, who lifted his price target to $400 from $260.

He spotlighted the strong outlook for its advanced packaging business given “AMAT’s #1 position in HBM where spending is inflecting higher as the absorption of previously shipped equipment concludes and additional capacity/capability is required amid burgeoning demand growth and customers’ rapid technology transitions (HBM3e > HBM4 > HBM4e and beyond).”

Other sell-side shops that took a more more optimistic view and upped their price targets include:

  • Keybanc, up to $450 from $380;

  • Barclays, up to $450 from $360;

  • Wells Fargo, up to $435 from $350;

  • Citi, up to $420 from $400;

  • Morgan Stanley, up to $420 from $364;

  • And Mizuho, up to $410 from $370.

“This is finally the narrative-changing quarter that we have been waiting for,” wrote Needham & Co. analyst Charles Shi, who boosted his price target to $440 from $390. “With AMAT shaking off the bad China narrative and returning to a strong AI-driven beat-and-raise cycle, we expect AMAT valuation gap vs. peers will narrow as AMAT should re-rate higher.”

The numbers speak for themselves, but the words on the conference call didn’t hurt either.

“Management’s decidedly more constructive tone on the call (relative to a more muted/conservative tone on the last call) we think was underpinned by a sharp acceleration in customer orders and activity levels in the quarter,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, who lifted his price target to $400 from $260.

He spotlighted the strong outlook for its advanced packaging business given “AMAT’s #1 position in HBM where spending is inflecting higher as the absorption of previously shipped equipment concludes and additional capacity/capability is required amid burgeoning demand growth and customers’ rapid technology transitions (HBM3e > HBM4 > HBM4e and beyond).”

Other sell-side shops that took a more more optimistic view and upped their price targets include:

  • Keybanc, up to $450 from $380;

  • Barclays, up to $450 from $360;

  • Wells Fargo, up to $435 from $350;

  • Citi, up to $420 from $400;

  • Morgan Stanley, up to $420 from $364;

  • And Mizuho, up to $410 from $370.

markets

Plug Power wins shareholder approval to boost its share count, avoiding reverse split and paving the way for more dilution

After the close on Thursday, Plug Power revealed that it received sufficient shareholder support to increase its share count.

This approval paves the way for the hydrogen fuel cell company to raise more money via share offerings, something it’s announced 20 times since its IPO, according to data from Bloomberg.

Management had urged shareholders to vote in favor of this proposal. It’s a sign of how important retail investors are to Plug that CEO Andy Marsh even hosted an AMA on Reddit to build support among the community.

If this measure had failed to get a “yes” vote from the majority of shareholders, Plug warned that it would have been forced to proceed with a reverse stock split (which would have raised the per-share price) in order to issue more shares.

“Without additional authorized shares, the Company will not be able to: meet its contractual obligations to increase authorized shares of common stock by February 28, 2026; raise capital necessary for operations and growth; and execute on its business plans and strategy,” the company said in a November filing.

Plug is aiming to capitalize on the data center-driven bid for power by offering auxiliary solutions.

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