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The job-openings-to-job-seekers ratio is getting smaller

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released some pretty underwhelming US jobs data, with only 12,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added last month — the lowest figure since December 2020, and considerably less than the reported 223,000 new jobs added this September.

The last major economic report before America heads to the polls, the smaller-than-expected growth is explained in part by the unprecedented impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as recent national strike action. But, as Luke Kawa noted, what was more worrying were the revisions to previous months: August job growth, first reported as +142K, was revised to +78K, the worst reading since December 2020.

Job openings vs unemployment chart
Sherwood News

Though it might not have always felt like it, for much of the past six years (pandemic-craziness aside), it’s been a job seeker’s market, with more job openings than people unemployed. The latest JOLTS data revealed that the ratio of job openings to job seekers is narrowing, as job growth has continued to slow.

The last major economic report before America heads to the polls, the smaller-than-expected growth is explained in part by the unprecedented impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as recent national strike action. But, as Luke Kawa noted, what was more worrying were the revisions to previous months: August job growth, first reported as +142K, was revised to +78K, the worst reading since December 2020.

Job openings vs unemployment chart
Sherwood News

Though it might not have always felt like it, for much of the past six years (pandemic-craziness aside), it’s been a job seeker’s market, with more job openings than people unemployed. The latest JOLTS data revealed that the ratio of job openings to job seekers is narrowing, as job growth has continued to slow.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

markets

Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

markets

Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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