markets

3/4/25

The S&P 500’s recovery off the lows is all about the return of the AI trade

The S&P 500 is about 1.4% off the lows as of 2:00 p.m. ET.

If the benchmark gauge is going to cleanly hold its 200-day moving average (which roughly marked the trough so far today), then today’s leaders off the lows may be poised to be the names that also drive any potential recovery in the days to come. If this isn’t the “true bottom,” then... well, you overprepared and know what to do next time the market falls out of bed and then attempts to get its act together.

To this end, we looked at the top 20 S&P 500 stocks since 11:29 a.m. ET, which is roughly the double bottom on an intraday basis.

One noteworthy trend is that half of these have been big beneficiaries of the AI boom:

Chip designers and server companies like Nvidia, Super Micro Computer, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron
On the power and infrastructure side, we’ve got Vistra, GE Vernova, NRG, Axon, Arista Networks, and Monolithic Power Systems

The tenor of the tape since a little before midday looks a lot like a bounce in the beaten-up momentum names, as Tesla and Palantir Technologies are also among the leaders. In other words, the momentum names with ugly, broken charts are what’s keeping the S&P 500 from having an ugly, broken chart.

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Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa

Bulls on parade

Three major US stock indexes post record closing highs on the same day for the first time since November 2021

Tech was far and away the best-performing S&P 500 sector ETF, while consumer staples was at the bottom of the leaderboard.

Bull by the horns

Nvidia Intel deal implications, according to Wall Street analysts

Wall Street analysts think through the Nvidia-Intel deal

TL;DR: Huge for Intel, helpful for Nvidia, and potentially bad for AMD.

Matt Phillips10h

markets

11h

Abercrombie & Fitch gets a lift after BTIG kicks off coverage with a “buy” rating

Abercrombie & Fitch popped over 3% Thursday afternoon after BTIG initiated coverage on the stock with a “buy” rating and set a $120 price target. That’s more than 35% above current trading levels.

“While we acknowledge headwinds from a selective consumer and tough comparisons, we have confidence in A&F’s ability to return to growth as AUR [average unit retail] headwinds abate at Abercrombie, a factor well within the company’s control, while traffic and brand health remain strong,” the firm wrote in the note.

BTIG also highlighted the retailer’s California-based Hollister brand, where growth is continuing to ramp up, and that cleaner inventory management is helping the retailer avoid big markdowns. Analysts also noted that Abercrombie still trades at a discount to its peers, making the upside more compelling.

The call comes on the heels of Abercrombie’s stronger-than-expected Q2 results last month, which featured record quarterly sales and marked its 11th straight quarter of growth.

A&F shares are down 41% year to date.

markets

14h

Analyst spotlights oil refiners’ outperformance

Major US oil refiners like Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 are outperforming more than 90% of the S&P 500 this year, as a surge in global supply from OPEC+ — essentially a price-setting alliance between OPEC and Russia — has put refiners in the catbird seat when it comes to price negotiations with producers.

“We continue to assess that refiners will set the price of crude and refiners will win in a wide range of scenarios for crude, making refiners the best vehicle for long petroleum exposure,” wrote Colin Fenton, head of commodities research at 22V Research.

Crack spreads, a measure of profit margins at refiners, have risen nearly 50% so far this year.

Olive Garden parent company Darden dips after serving up a Q1 earnings miss

The restaurant giant saw strong comps, but is facing higher costs and more price-conscious consumers.

Olive Garden Italian Kitchen. Olive Garden is a division of Darden Restaurants.

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