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Luke Kawa

The S&P 500’s recovery off the lows is all about the return of the AI trade

The S&P 500 is about 1.4% off the lows as of 2:00 p.m. ET.

If the benchmark gauge is going to cleanly hold its 200-day moving average (which roughly marked the trough so far today), then today’s leaders off the lows may be poised to be the names that also drive any potential recovery in the days to come. If this isn’t the “true bottom,” then... well, you overprepared and know what to do next time the market falls out of bed and then attempts to get its act together.

To this end, we looked at the top 20 S&P 500 stocks since 11:29 a.m. ET, which is roughly the double bottom on an intraday basis.

One noteworthy trend is that half of these have been big beneficiaries of the AI boom:

The tenor of the tape since a little before midday looks a lot like a bounce in the beaten-up momentum names, as Tesla and Palantir Technologies are also among the leaders. In other words, the momentum names with ugly, broken charts are what’s keeping the S&P 500 from having an ugly, broken chart.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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