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Judgment Day

The US job market is guilty until proven innocent

A pick-up in layoffs coupled with a low hiring rate is pointing to increased vulnerabilities for the American worker.

Luke Kawa

The US job market isn’t terrible. But it’s vulnerable.

That’s the key message from the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released on Wednesday morning – a report which reinforces the idea that the momentum in the labor market continues to weaken, raising the stakes for August’s non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

Of note: the number of job openings tumbled, and the number of Americans involuntarily removed from their job, to use a euphemism, spiked.

In the minutes following the release, traders briefly priced a 50 basis point cut as the most likely outcome for September’s Federal Reserve meeting. 

What’s interesting is that despite this jump in layoffs, the private sector firing rate (that is, layoffs and discharges as a share of private sector workers) is still extremely low versus history.

But that contrasts with a private sector hiring rate that’s quite subdued, and suggests the unemployment rate could be materially higher than it is now.

Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, has termed this odd combination of hiring rates and firing rates sending different signals (along with a quits rate that’s fairly low!)  “The Great Stay.” Conor Sen, the founder of Peachtree Creek Investments, suggested a slightly more inauspicious name given the overall slowing in labor market conditions: “The Great Stall.”

This invites the question: what should we care about more? Low firing or low hiring?

“A decline in hiring activity is historically as damaging to workers as layoffs, and deserves to be taken seriously,” wrote Preston Mui, senior economist at Employ America, before the underwhelming July jobs report even came out. Mui flagged that the downturn in hiring preceded the increase in firing during the Great Recession.

This makes some intuitive sense: absent major shocks, we’d expect conditions at a company to move from good (sales up a lot, hiring up), to less good (demand growth slowing, hiring down), to bad (demand down, firing up) – not skipping the middle step. 

So to summarize: job growth is slowing, the unemployment rate is rising, and layoffs have ticked up (at least according to the JOLTS report). 

The labor market needs a boost from somewhere to reduce this vulnerability; to keep the “less good” state of affairs from turning into a “bad” one. And it needs this help... [stares in the direction of 2051 Constitution Ave., the address of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building]... yesterday.

Note: Why do we care about July data on the labor market when we already got the non-farm payrolls report for that month?!? With the August jobs report data a couple of days away? Well, the non-farm payrolls report is based on surveys performed in the middle of the month, while the JOLTS report includes data at month-end, so what we got today is a little more current (and granular).

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Trump administration says tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports are coming... in 2027

After a year-long investigation into China’s tactics to bolster its domestic semiconductor industry, the US has determined that its practices are “unreasonable” and is going to do something about that in 18 months.

The Trump administration’s office of the US trade representative said today that it plans to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese semiconductors at a rate higher than 0% to be decided at least 30 days before June 23, 2027.

“China’s pursuit of its dominance goals has severely disadvantaged US companies, workers, and the U.S. economy generally through lessened competition and commercial opportunities and through the creation of economic security risks from dependencies and vulnerabilities,” per the USTR’s notice of action.

These levies, should they come to pass, would apply to silicon, diodes, transistors, and more.

US markets were completely unbothered by this revelation, likely because there is no immediate action against Chinese semi companies and therefore no disruption to business-as-usual. This represents a punting of a contentious matter, similar to how China delayed restrictions on rare earth shipments as part of a deal between Presidents Trump and Xi following their October meeting.

It’s another sign of a thaw in the US-China relations over the hot-button issue of semiconductors after President Trump gave Nvidia the go-ahead to sell its H200 chips to buyers in the world’s second-largest economy.

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ServiceNow strikes deal to buy cybersecurity firm Armis for $7.75 billion in cash

ServiceNow has agreed to acquire cybersecurity startup Armis for $7.75 billion in an all-cash deal, the largest purchase in the company's history.

That price tag is $750 million above what Bloomberg suggested was the top end of what Armis would cost just last week, and about $1.65 billion above what the company had been valued at in a November funding round.

Armis had been readying itself for an IPO, with many major investors looking to take a stake in the firm.

Instead, it’s now a key cog in the software platform company’s bid to lean on cybersecurity features to bolster its appeal to customers in a world in which the rise of AI adds to the potential threats of business disruptions and data breaches.

Per the press release:

As rapid AI adoption expands the attack surface for organizations, real-time visibility into vulnerabilities and actionable insights for what to fix first are critical to minimize risk and strengthen security posture. The acquisition of Armis will extend and enhance ServiceNow’s Security, Risk, and OT portfolios in critical and fast-growing areas of cybersecurity and drive increased AI adoption by strengthening trust across businesses’ connected environments.

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Novo Nordisk rallies after FDA weight loss pill approval

Novo Nordisk’s US-listed shares are up 7% in pre-market trading on Tuesday after the US Food and Drug Administration approved its Wegovy weight loss pill on Monday evening.

Now the first pill of its kind to receive approval from the regulator, Novo’s Wegovy pill is expected to launch in the US in early January 2026, and awaits the European Medicines Agency and other regulatory authorities’ approval after submitting for review in the second half of 2025, per the company’s press release. The 1.5 milligram starting dose of the pill will be sold at an introductory price of $149 a month.

“The pill is here. With today's approval of the Wegovy® pill, patients will have a convenient, once-daily pill that can help them lose as much weight as the original Wegovy® injection,” said Mike Doustdar, president and CEO of Novo Nordisk.

The approval was based on Novo’s Oasis 4 trial, which found participants who took 25 milligram doses of Wegovy pills daily lost 16.6% of their body weight over a 64 week period.

The approval will give Novo — which lost more than 50% of its market cap this year after Eli Lilly took the crown in weekly US prescriptions for injectable weight-loss drugs with its product Zepbound — a first-mover advantage in the expanding market. Lilly, which is down some 1% in pre-market trading today, has said its own oral drug orforglipron could be approved by March 2026.

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