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Top Trump trade hit by Trump tariffs

In the early days of Trump 2.0, Axon, the maker of Taser, body cameras, and other gear for police and security forces, was a top Trump trade.

That is, it was one of the group of companies whose share prices soared on expectations of big changes — in this case a surge of spending on police and immigration enforcement — under the new administration.

And sales of the company’s security products, under its Connected Products division, did rise. But in the just-reported third quarter, costs rose more. And one of those rising costs was the Trump administration’s tariffs.

In its post-earnings conference call, Axon officials blamed tariffs for a large part of the earnings miss that sent the stock plummeting by roughly 20% in the after-hours session Tuesday.

“The impact from tariffs is obviously hitting the Connected Devices business overall. This was the first quarter that we had a full quarter of impact from tariffs,” Axon CFO and COO Brittany Bagley told analysts on the call. “So as we look at the year-over-year step down, that really is attributable to tariffs.”

She continued, “As long as tariffs stay in place, I view that as sort of a onetime adjustment. So now that’s baked into the gross margins.”

Clearly the market didn’t like the sound of that. But perhaps those tariffs may not stay in place.

Late in the morning, Axon sharply cuts its losses on the day — it had been down as much as 20% — as oral arguments in the Supreme Court case to determine the legality of President Trump’s tariff regime got underway. On balance, its seems the administration’s arguments were getting a chilly reception from the justices.

And sales of the company’s security products, under its Connected Products division, did rise. But in the just-reported third quarter, costs rose more. And one of those rising costs was the Trump administration’s tariffs.

In its post-earnings conference call, Axon officials blamed tariffs for a large part of the earnings miss that sent the stock plummeting by roughly 20% in the after-hours session Tuesday.

“The impact from tariffs is obviously hitting the Connected Devices business overall. This was the first quarter that we had a full quarter of impact from tariffs,” Axon CFO and COO Brittany Bagley told analysts on the call. “So as we look at the year-over-year step down, that really is attributable to tariffs.”

She continued, “As long as tariffs stay in place, I view that as sort of a onetime adjustment. So now that’s baked into the gross margins.”

Clearly the market didn’t like the sound of that. But perhaps those tariffs may not stay in place.

Late in the morning, Axon sharply cuts its losses on the day — it had been down as much as 20% — as oral arguments in the Supreme Court case to determine the legality of President Trump’s tariff regime got underway. On balance, its seems the administration’s arguments were getting a chilly reception from the justices.

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‘Golden age of profit margins’ seen in 2026

Wall Street tends to be a pretty optimistic place. But on one measure, market watchers are the most optimistic on record.

FactSet data shows the consensus estimate for S&P 500 net profit margins in calendar year 2026 calls for the gauge to climb to 13.9% in 2026.

But if borne out by events next year “it will mark the highest (annual) net profit margin reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008,” wrote John Butters, senior earnings analyst at the financial data company.

A recent story from Barron’s also commented on the expectations for especially fat profit margins embedded into forecasts for next year.

“We are in the golden age of margins,” RBC’s Capital Markets’ head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, told the magazine.

That’s good news for investors looking forward to next year. But the follow up question, of course, is where the growth in profitability is expected to come from. The answer, as you might have guessed, is tech. Though the precise mechanisms by which those profits land in the coffers of the giant tech firms remains something of a mystery. Barron’s doesn’t get into the details, saying “call it benefits from AI, pricing power, or whatever.”

That doesn’t exactly sound like money in the bank. But even die-hard haters of AI have to acknowledge that betting against the ability of giant tech companies to generate massive profit growth has been a bad trade for the last couple decades.

But if borne out by events next year “it will mark the highest (annual) net profit margin reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008,” wrote John Butters, senior earnings analyst at the financial data company.

A recent story from Barron’s also commented on the expectations for especially fat profit margins embedded into forecasts for next year.

“We are in the golden age of margins,” RBC’s Capital Markets’ head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, told the magazine.

That’s good news for investors looking forward to next year. But the follow up question, of course, is where the growth in profitability is expected to come from. The answer, as you might have guessed, is tech. Though the precise mechanisms by which those profits land in the coffers of the giant tech firms remains something of a mystery. Barron’s doesn’t get into the details, saying “call it benefits from AI, pricing power, or whatever.”

That doesn’t exactly sound like money in the bank. But even die-hard haters of AI have to acknowledge that betting against the ability of giant tech companies to generate massive profit growth has been a bad trade for the last couple decades.

markets

Opendoor rises after CEO Kaz Nejatian touts an explosion in its home-buying footprint

Opendoor Technologies gained in early trading after CEO Kaz Nejatian touted an explosion in the company’s home-buying footprint.

In a message on X, the former Shopify COO posted two maps: one of which depicts a fairly limited area in which the online real estate company would buy or sell homes, and the second of which suggests that has now expanded to include the entire lower 48:

In a follow-up tweet, Nejatian attributed the gains to AI, writing, “First pic took 10 *years* of work without AI. Second pic took 10 *weeks* of work with AI.”

On his first earnings call as CEO, Nejatian said the company had adopted a “default to AI approach.”

One of his first pledges was to launch Opendoor everywhere in the lower 48.

markets

Hertz surges on bullish options activity

As millions begrudgingly make their way to the rental car counter amid the winter holidays, investors are pouring into calls and sending Hertz stock soaring.

As of 10:51 a.m. eastern, Hertz had seen 17,861 calls traded. That’s already significantly ahead of the 20-day average volume of 12,956. Hertz shares are up more than 12%.

Seemingly juicing the rally was a post on X that read “car rental companies could end up being the picks and shovels of autonomy” that was reposted by billionaire Bill Ackman, whose hedge fund is one of Hertz’s largest shareholders.

If Hertz’s price action holds, the move will mark its ninth-best trading day of 2025.

markets

POET Technologies jumps on elevated call activity

Optical communications company POET Technologies is up double digits in early trading on Monday as this potential supporting player in the AI boom gets a bid from the options market.

Just an hour after the opening bell sounded, call volumes are already running well above their five-session average for a full day.

The stock became a retail favorite in early Q4 right before many speculative trades began to retreat, with record call volumes of nearly 600,000 on October 7. The last big bump in options activity came on December 3, the session after Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI, a customer of POET, offered some validation for its technology as a data center solution.

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