Traders are not insanely bullish... yet

Sure, there’s some froth. But overall things are not too nuts.

3/27/24 11:54AM

People are declaring the return of meme stock insanity.

Bloomberg for one, is out with a piece this morning saying “the retail investing crowd is back in the throes of a meme stock mania.”

Exhibit A is the surging price of Trump Media & Technology Group, which debuted yesterday with a more than 40% pop, before slumping into the close. (It’s up big today too. )

Also also Reddit, soared, in its trading debut this week, marking the most successful social media IPO since Pinterest back in 2019.

And sure, the stock market is certainly not depressed. Why would it be?

Semaphore out of the Fed suggests it’s on track to deliver rate cuts this year. Analysts are ratcheting higher their expectations for corporate profits. And people are feeling pretty good about their own personal financial position—even if their outlook on the overall economy is sour.

I’d just point out that things are still a long way from the levels of euphoria that we saw back during the peak of the GameStop mishegoss back in January 2021.

Just check out the CBOE put-call ratio:

A product of the options market, the put-call ratio basically shows the balance between options market bets on stocks going up — calls — versus bets on stocks going down, known as puts.

The TL;DR is that the lower the number is, the more overwhelmingly bullish options market sentiment has become.

We've seen how low the ratio can go, and you can see, we’re nowhere near the level of nuts that we saw back in 2021.

It’s just one number. But it doesn’t suggest we’re at extremely elevated, or worrisome levels, of bullishness. On the other hand, things can always get crazier.

Luke Kawa

GameStop can’t stop winning, on track for longest streak of gains since 2022

Unless we jinx it, GameStop is poised for its longest winning streak since 2022, with shares up 3% as of 2:04 p.m. ET.

The video game and collectibles retailer hasn’t posted a down day since September 4, and is poised for its eighth consecutive day of gains. Shares are up nearly 18% over this period, versus a 1.6% advance for the S&P 500.

The bulk of these gains came in the wake of the company’s stellar second-quarter earnings report, which exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines as well as marking the fifth consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow generation for the first time in its history.

Including this one, the company has posted 8 or more consecutive days of gains on 25 occasions during its history as a publicly-traded company.

Its last seven-session winning streak came in mid-July of last year, about a month after Keith Gill aka Roaring Kitty disappeared from the scene after his brief reappearance, as part of a relatively violent market rotation into small cap stocks.

Max Knoblauch

Nio surges to an 11-month high following an upgrade from UBS ahead of its new SUV launch

Chinese EV maker Nio is climbing for the fourth straight trading day, following an upgrade from UBS to buy from neutral. Nio’s nearly 7% jump propelled the stock to its highest level since last October.

UBS also bumped its price target for Nio up to $8.50, a 37% hike.

Nio will begin deliveries of its new ES8 SUV this weekend, priced to compete with Tesla’s Model Y. Last week, the EV maker said it planned to raise up to $1 billion on a share offering.

According to UBS analyst Paul Gong, Nio’s latest products “could further attract consumers after the US $1 billion equity offerings strengthened visibility on its healthy operations.”

J. Edward Moreno

Moderna is up on the release of positive results for reformulated Covid vaccine

Moderna rose on Tuesday after it announced encouraging trial results for its next Covid-19 vaccine.

The data from its phase 4 clinical trial showed its 2025-2026 formula of its Covid-19 vaccine, which targets a new variant and was recently approved by the FDA with some limitations, produced a strong immune response among people ages 12 through 64. Covid vaccine sales account for virtually all of Moderna's revenue.

The company has had a tumultuous year as the Trump administration makes moves to limit who is able to access the vaccine. Last month, the FDA limited approval for the coronavirus vaccine to higher-risk populations; previously, anyone older than 6 months was eligible for it.

Max Knoblauch

Rivian climbs as it breaks ground on a $5 billion EV plant that could produce 200,000 vehicles a year by 2028

EV tax credits may be ending this month, but Rivian’s still optimistic about future demand.

The electric vehicle maker on Tuesday broke ground on it’s delayed, $5 billion Georgia plant that it says will be able to produce 200,000 vehicles per year by 2028 (Rivian expects to deliver up to 46,000 EVs this year). Its shares climbed more than 6%.

The plant will create 7,500 permanent jobs once complete, according to Rivian, with the first phase of production beginning next year.

2026 also marks the planned launch year for Rivian’s R2 electric SUV, expected to start around $45,000 and compete with Tesla’s Model Y. Earlier this month, Lucid confirmed that it too would be creating a roughly $50,000 electric SUV.

If it seems like an odd time to build an EV plant, it probably is. But unlike larger rivals GM and Honda, Rivian doesn’t have the ability to scale back its EV ambitions — they’re the only vehicles the automaker produces. Last month, the company posted a steeper loss than analysts expected, losing $1.12 billion over its second quarter.

It's 'do or die' for electric vehicle maker Rivian as it breaks ground on a $5 billion plant

The plant will create 7,500 permanent jobs once complete, according to Rivian, with the first phase of production beginning next year.

Luke Kawa

Plug Power jumps on elevated call demand

Plug Power is up today amid a wave of bullish options action.

As of 11:40 a.m. ET, 28,819 calls have traded, nearly double the 20-day average of 14,527.

The two contracts seeing the most activity are calls with a strike price of $2 that expire on October 17 and on this Friday.

The put/call ratio is below 0.13 as of 11:40 a.m., versus a 20-day average of 0.32.