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Trump-friendly media company Newsmax soars after IPO

Trump trades have given back much of their collective postelection bump in recent weeks, with big beneficiaries from the president’s 2024 victory like Tesla, Palantir, and Trump Media down sharply since the market peaked back in February.

But there’s still appetite out there for Trump-adjacent trading vehicles.

Case in point: the debut of Trump-friendly media company Newsmax, which went vertical once the stock opened shortly before 11 a.m. ET. At times, the stock was up roughly 600% compared to the $10 it priced at.

At current levels, this money-losing company — it was $55 million in the red through the first six months of 2024 — would have a market cap of somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 billion.

That means the market is valuing Newsmax at about 44x full-year 2023 revenues, the last year for which full-year data is available. The S&P 600 small-cap index as a whole has a price-to-sales valuation of less than 1x last year’s sales.

Such wild valuations for Trump-related trades are something of a feature of the genre.

Case in point: the debut of Trump-friendly media company Newsmax, which went vertical once the stock opened shortly before 11 a.m. ET. At times, the stock was up roughly 600% compared to the $10 it priced at.

At current levels, this money-losing company — it was $55 million in the red through the first six months of 2024 — would have a market cap of somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 billion.

That means the market is valuing Newsmax at about 44x full-year 2023 revenues, the last year for which full-year data is available. The S&P 600 small-cap index as a whole has a price-to-sales valuation of less than 1x last year’s sales.

Such wild valuations for Trump-related trades are something of a feature of the genre.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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