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CAMARILLO, CA FEBRUARY 09: A cannabis farm worker de-leafs cann
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Trump signs executive order expediting reclassification of marijuana as a less dangerous drug

Rescheduling would lift regulatory pressures that have been weighing on US cannabis operators' margins. Shares of weed companies, many of which don’t sell cannabis in the US, tumbled an hour before the executive order was signed.

President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order directing the Department of Justice to reschedule marijuana as a less dangerous drug, a move that stands to lift profits of ailing US cannabis companies and expand access to medical research.

The executive order expedites the process of rescheduling marijuana from being a Schedule I drug, like heroin and LSD, to a Schedule III drug, like testosterone. The move, which had been rumored for nearly a week, reportedly came after a meeting with cannabis industry executives. Rescheduling would boost US cannabis operators' profits by slicing their high tax burden.

The president's remarks and the White House's fact sheet primarily focus on medical cannabis and CBD, or cannabidiol, a non-intoxicating compound found in cannabis. Rescheduling marijuana could make it easier to run clinical trials on cannabis-based medicines.

“We have people begging for me to do this, people that are in great pain,” Trump said.

This recently-rumored move, reports of which had sent had cannabis stocks soaring since December 11, is being treated as a “sell the news” event. The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, the benchmark ETF for publicly-traded US cannabis companies, fell sharply about an hour before the signing of this executive order hit the wires. So too did major Canadian operators, such as Tilray, Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, and SNDL Inc., even though those companies don’t sell cannabis in the US.

Dan Ahrens, who manages MSOS, said investors may be disappointed the order doesn’t instantly reschedule cannabis as opposed to directing the attorney general to do so “in the most expeditious manner in accordance with Federal law” without a specific timeframe.

“I’d personally think there’s a strong chance of a bounce back once it’s all digested and people realize the ramifications of the rescheduling actually going through,” Ahrens said in an email.

Under former President Biden, the Department of Justice announced in April 2024 that it would recommend reclassifying marijuana, though that process stalled. There are have been several reports this year saying Trump was close to proposing reform, an issue that's controversial within the Republican party.

For US cannabis companies, the biggest outcome could be a tax treatment that's more in line with other businesses. Under the current regulatory scheme, cannabis companies can generally only expense the cost of acquiring their product but virtually no other business expenses.

The result is that cannabis companies are paying an effective tax rate of upwards of 50%. Some cannabis companies may have a tax bill that exceeds their profits, and even unprofitable businesses may still get a tax bill.

Joanne Wilson, CEO of Gotham, a dispensary chain in New York City, said more than half of the money her business makes goes to taxes. She said the change would be felt "immediately."

"That totally changes the business," Wilson said. "That's a huge win, because nobody is making money — the taxes are insane."

The impact of rescheduling on day-to-day operations remains uncertain, according to Roy Cysner, chief financial officer of The Travel Agency, a New York City dispensary chain.

Cysner said payments are "probably the most challenging" hurdle, describing finding reliable service providers like "a game of whack-a-mole." The company has had the same banker for several years, but he's only aware of two others that would even take his business. He said he knows he's overpaying for both services.

"It's getting closer to a normal business," Cysner said. "And even if there's that additional thing that needs to happen to actually legalize it, I think that this might be the path to get us there."

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Rivian climbs as it rolls out a “universal hands-free” update and scores an upgrade from Baird

Shares of EV maker Rivian are on pace for their 10th best day of 2025 on Thursday, following an upgrade from Baird to “buy” from “hold” and the rollout of its new hands-free driving update.

Baird raised its price target on Rivian nearly 79% to $25, writing that “2026 is the year of R2.”

Meanwhile, Rivian says its new hands-free feature will allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel across 3.5 million miles of US and Canadian roads.

Despite referring to it as universal hands-free driving, the EV maker says the feature will not stop or slow for traffic lights or stop signs, follow navigation systems, or make turns, and will function only on roads with visible lane lines.

Rivian revealed the update at its AI Day last week, when it also hinted at a robotaxi plan.

Meanwhile, Rivian says its new hands-free feature will allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel across 3.5 million miles of US and Canadian roads.

Despite referring to it as universal hands-free driving, the EV maker says the feature will not stop or slow for traffic lights or stop signs, follow navigation systems, or make turns, and will function only on roads with visible lane lines.

Rivian revealed the update at its AI Day last week, when it also hinted at a robotaxi plan.

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The stock market loves your rising electricity bill

Utilities with a footprint in the massive PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest power grid, were up Thursday after prices set in a key auction hit a record high of $333.44 per megawatt-day.

Such power providers, including Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and Vistra, saw tidy gains shortly before midday.

“This auction leaves no doubt that data centers’ demand for electricity continues to far outstrip new supply, and the solution will require concerted action involving PJM, its stakeholders, state and federal partners, and the data center industry itself,” Stu Bresler, set to become PJM’s chief operating officer next month, told Reuters.

As I’ve previously mused, political pushback from high power prices, partially created by the AI boom, could become a constraint on development of such sites. Democrats in the US Senate are now calling for hearings on the issue.

It’s fertile political soil. This morning’s US CPI report for November showed electricity prices up nearly 7% year over year, the highest since the tail end of the postpandemic inflation in April 2023.

“This auction leaves no doubt that data centers’ demand for electricity continues to far outstrip new supply, and the solution will require concerted action involving PJM, its stakeholders, state and federal partners, and the data center industry itself,” Stu Bresler, set to become PJM’s chief operating officer next month, told Reuters.

As I’ve previously mused, political pushback from high power prices, partially created by the AI boom, could become a constraint on development of such sites. Democrats in the US Senate are now calling for hearings on the issue.

It’s fertile political soil. This morning’s US CPI report for November showed electricity prices up nearly 7% year over year, the highest since the tail end of the postpandemic inflation in April 2023.

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Micron’s earnings, soft inflation, and OpenAI valuation chatter revive speculative AI trade

The three biggest news events since markets closed yesterday are all helping spur a big bounce-back for the more speculative companies tied to AI:

  • Micron’s eye-popping Q2 guidance reaffirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt how hot AI demand continues to run in the near term.

  • While the data is undoubtedly messy, core CPI inflation decelerated by much more than anticipated in November. Lower rates are a clear positive for more marginal companies levered to the AI theme, whose stocks trade with a higher embedded risk of default and whose bonds have also been suggesting more credit risk as of late.

  • OpenAI reportedly getting its hands on more money (and commanding a higher valuation in the process) provides some semblance of valuation support for these firms and also a better fundamental foundation as well: more cash in CEO Sam Altman’s pockets means more cash he has to make good on commitments to OpenAI’s many suppliers.

Put together, the key news items since Wednesday’s close are producing massive gains for the likes of Bloom Energy, Cipher Mining, POET Technologies, CoreWeave, IREN, and Nebius.

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GE Vernova upped to “buy” at Jefferies

GE Vernova is up early, enjoying the benefits of both a rebound in the AI data center trade and an upgrade to “buy” from analysts at Jefferies. In a note published on Thursday, they wrote:

We upgrade to Buy. More positive on the outlook for Power (gas pricing & services visibility) and electrification yet shares are down since the December 9th Analyst Day. $815 PT up from $736. Gas turbine pricing continues to positively surprise and services provides visibility deeper into the 2030s, eventually offsetting gas equipment weakness.

The target is slightly above the FactSet consensus price target of $753 on the stock, and implies a 23% premium to GE Vernova’s closing price on Wednesday. The stock is up almost 100% in 2025.

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