UnitedHealth falls after CEO abruptly exits and guidance is suspended

There’s a common thread between what’s ailing some different parts of the AI trade right now:

A high-profile relationship with OpenAI is a millstone around your neck. The ChatGPT maker is seemingly getting bested by Google’s Gemini 3 (and knows it) while burning a lot of cash, with no end to the red ink in sight.

Such millstone-afflicted parties include:

• Investing conglomerate SoftBank has tumbled 9.9% and 10.8% in its two most recent trading days in Japan. SoftBank is a useful way to express a view on how OpenAI is doing because the Masayoshi Son-led firm is poised to own about 11% of the company, and increases in its valuation have been a big driver of SoftBank’s growth in net income. SoftBank sold its entire $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia in October, likely to finance what it owes OpenAI to build its position in that privately held company.

• Oracle has the dubious distinction of getting battered across two different asset classes thanks to OpenAI. Remember: traders loved Oracle’s massive cloud-revenue backlog in the abstract. When the specifics were revealed and much of that sales pipeline was down to a $300 billion deal with OpenAI, that was when the stock peaked. More recently, credit default swaps tied to Oracle’s debt have also widened significantly, as the company’s infrastructure build-out is launching to fulfill demand from OpenAI, a customer that’s considered to be significantly less creditworthy.

• The AI chip business of Advanced Micro Devices had a major breakthrough in October, securing a deal to sell multiple generations of its flagship GPUs for “tens of billions” in revenue. But... OpenAI was once again the customer. This was quickly followed by a separate announcement that 50,000 of its AI chips would be deployed in data centers run by Oracle starting in the second half of next year, likely de facto representing a further enmeshing of its relationship with OpenAI.

• Microsoft has a tighter partnership with and bigger equity position in OpenAI than SoftBank. On the other hand, it also has its own successful core business, which significantly dilutes any OpenAI “signal,” so to speak. It’s the second-worst publicly traded hyperscaler in November, down almost double digits and trailing only Oracle.

Mall retailers were making moves Tuesday as Q3 earnings poured in ahead of Black Friday, with several chains lifting their full-year guidance on stronger consumer demand into the holiday season. Black Friday traffic is projected to hit record levels this week as deal-hungry shoppers hunt for bargains. Macy’s also popped on the back of the strong results from peers.

• Kohl’s soared after hiking its full-year outlook again, and now expects a sales decline of 3.5% to 4% versus previous estimates of a 5% to 6% decline as the retailer rolls out more coupons.

• Abercrombie & Fitch jumped after raising its full-year revenue outlook, helped by stronger sales at Hollister that are expected to last through the holiday season.

• Best Buy also topped Q3 expectations and raised its 2026 earnings-per-share and revenue outlook, as management expects holiday discounts to drive big tech upgrades.

• Burlington Stores was a weak spot among the group despite also posting an EPS beat, as revenue narrowly missed expectations and management pointed to early-quarter softness due to “unseasonably warm temperatures.”

The Google halo effect is the new Nvidia halo effect.

Shares of optical and photonics company Lumentum have been on a tear in November, up nearly 50%. Its components help information move around quickly in data centers using lasers and mirrors.

Unlike a lot of the more speculative, volatile AI-adjacent stocks that have come under pressure as of late, Lumentum has strong operating performance to help justify these gains.

The company reported Q1 2026 results near the start of the month that exceeded analysts’ expectations, with management also offering Q2 guidance well ahead of forecasts.

The company’s fiscal 2025 results (the year ended June 28, 2025) showed that Google was its second-biggest customer, accounting for 15.4% of net revenues. Networking equipment company Ciena Corp. came in slightly higher, at 16%.

Bloomberg currently estimates that as of its most recent quarter, 22% and 21% of Lumentum’s sales come from Ciena and Google, respectively.

Retail traders have stampeded into the stock this month, per JPMorgan analyst Arun Jain.

Wall Street has been singing the company’s praises as of late, too. Needham analyst Ryan Koontz boosted his price target to $290 from $235 on Monday, while Rosenblatt’s Mike Genovese recently called it “a must own AI stock.”

Nio was up as much as 3.1% in early trading on Tuesday after the Chinese EV maker dropped its third-quarter earnings. The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.15 per share, better than the $0.23 loss expected by analysts polled by FactSet.

The automaker also:

• Booked $2.7 billion in vehicle sales, up 15% from the same period last year and slightly below Wall Street estimates. According to Nio, an increase in sales volume was partially offset by a lower average selling price, as the company introduced more affordable EVs.

• Delivered 87,071 vehicles in Q3, up more than 41% from last year. The figure landed at the bottom of the company’s delivery projection range of between 87,000 and 91,000 vehicles.

• Posted a vehicle margin of 14.7%, improving on the 13.1% in Q3 last year.

Looking ahead, the company said it expects to sell between 120,000 and 125,000 vehicles in Q4. Meeting even the low end of that target would bring the company’s 2025 total deliveries to more than 321,000 units, beating Wall Street’s expectation of about 316,000 vehicles.

Alongside Chinese rivals BYD and XPeng, Nio has helped fuel a fiercely competitive EV market in China, squeezing outside entrants like Tesla with low-priced vehicles similar to Tesla’s Model Y.