US court blocks Trump tariffs, but White House has workarounds, Goldman says

Stocks were green in premarket trading on Thursday, with the SPDR S&P 500 Trust up as much as 1.7% at one point after the US Court of International Trade struck down a major chunk of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, ruling that the president misapplied the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for much of his sweeping package. 

But the court ruling may not change much in practice, given the White House’s multiple fallback options, according to a note published last night by economists at Goldman Sachs.

In a note led by Alec Phillips, Goldman’s economics research team estimated that the decision would block a 6.7 percentage point increase in the effective US tariff rate since early 2025 — including the 10% universal baseline tariff (worth 3.6 pp), a 20% hike on Chinese goods (2.7 pp), and a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico (0.4 pp) — and with it, nearly $200 billion in annual revenue.

However, Goldman expects the White House to “find other ways to impose tariffs,” likely by reimposing a temporary 15% tariff (under Section 122) and laying the groundwork for longer-term tariffs (under Section 301). Meanwhile, sectoral tariffs (those on steel, aluminum, and autos) remain in place and could expand under Section 232.