US gas prices exceed $3.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2024
Prediction markets no longer see $4 gas as likely at the end of March, however.
Gasoline is the most expensive it’s been since the peak of the driving season in 2024.
The national average price in the US rose to $3.539 on Tuesday, per AAA, its first time above the $3.50 threshold since July 29, 2024.
Crossing this threshold might result in gasoline prices becoming a much more salient issue, particularly for those who get their news from TV.
A 2024 analysis from Briefing Book, a Substack authored by academics with research and policy experience, found that TV coverage of gas prices tends to ramp up after the nominal gas price hits $3.50.
However, if crude oil prices continue to stay off the boil, these higher prices could prove short-lived.
Traders in prediction markets currently anticipate that gas will end the week between $3.71 and $3.83, as of 7:10 am ET. The prediction market-implied odds for the price of gas at month end is a range of $3.70 to $3.90, down meaningfully from expectations of $4.10 to $4.30 on Monday morning.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
The national average price of gasoline stands at $3.532/gal, up 8.0c/gal today, but the increases could greatly slow by mid-week if after hours drops in WTI crude oil prices hold. If the drop holds and stays, gas prices could start rolling back by early weekend.
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) March 10, 2026
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