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US Pending Home Sales All Time Low
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R.I.P. US Housing

Home sales fell again in May.

High interest rates continue to keep the US housing market on life support.

May numbers from the National Association of Realtors show its index of pending home sales — a forward looking indicator of housing sales based on contract signings — continue to plumb some of the lowest levels on record.

This news comes on the heels of a 11% monthly plunge in new home sales for May, as well as unexpected drops in housing starts and building permits.

It’s no wonder. With 30-year mortgage rates hanging just below 7% and median home prices at an all-time high of $419,300, purchasing is unaffordable for a large swath of the American public. So far, the almost 100 basis point decline in mortgage rates since last October has done little to rejuvenate the real estate sector, as borrowing costs are still elevated relative to the past two decades.

For the current state of affairs to change, somebody has to blink. Either rates need to come down — which is largely up to the Federal Reserve — or would-be sellers are going to have to get real on prices. But there’s no telling when, or if, that’ll happen.

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Earnings season a chance for AI hyperscalers to “get their mojo back”

Hyperscalers need more “hype” on their potential AI moneymaking opportunities or to show that their “scale” continues to drive huge growth through this spending binge.

Luke Kawa1/23/26
markets

Active ETF offers exposure to Elon Musk’s SpaceX

Active ETF Baron First Principles ETF has added a large stake in Elon Musk’s privately held SpaceX, with daily disclosures of the active ETFs holdings on Friday showing SpaceX now makes up 22% of the fund’s portfolio.

Such a stake would open up a potentially big opportunity for those looking to get access to some of the eccentric billionaire’s privately held business empire, ahead of any public offering of the shares — which is reportedly in the works for this year.

Run by mutual fund manager Ron Baron, the ETF also owns stakes in other Musk vehicles such as privately held xAI and publicly traded Tesla. The fund — which has only been trading since December 15 — is down slightly on the day.

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Luke Kawa

AMD jumps as Intel’s supply constraints offer chance for CPU market share gains

As investors react negatively to Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s warning that the chipmaker’s turnaround effort will be a “multiyear journey,” that cautionary note is also a reminder that Advanced Micro Devices has more time to make hay while the sun shines.

AMD had been one of the companies with the most to lose should attempts by the government and Nvidia to prop up the beleaguered chipmaker bear fruit. In particular, Intel and AMD are locked in a fierce competition in the CPU market. During its earnings call on Thursday, Intel said that supply constraints were preventing the company from realizing strong demand.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur thinks that gives AMD more room to continue to muscle in on Intel’s CPU turf.

“We still view Intel as being at risk of further share loss in its product businesses (particularly in server CPU given AMD’s strong product portfolio/roadmap and Intel’s supply constraints),” he wrote.

AMD is up nearly 3% as of 11:40 a.m. ET, working on its ninth straight day of gains. A positive close would match its longest winning streak since 2005.

markets

Spotify climbs following an upgrade from Goldman as it prepares to hike prices

Music streamer Spotify climbed about 3% on Friday following an upgrade to “buy” from “neutral” from Goldman Sachs.

The upgrade comes ahead of Spotify’s already announced US subscription price hike next month — its third since 2023. Goldman lowered its 12-month Spotify price target to $700 from $735.

“We are surprised how negative investor sentiment has turned with respect to [Spotify] on the back of the AI theme. In our opinion, we see SPOT as well-positioned to capitalize on/benefit from rising generative AI adoption,” Goldman said in its Friday note, adding that it’s watching how the rise of AI music platforms could impact Spotify and its music royalty payment structure.

Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley published a survey that found up to 60% of Gen Z respondents listen to AI music, for an average of three hours per week. Last week, Bandcamp announced it would ban AI music on its platform.

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