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US stocks get hot as inflation cools by more than expected

Annual core CPI inflation falls to lowest level since March 2021.

Luke Kawa

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF extended its premarket gains after inflation data came in well below economists’ expectations, offering some fresh justification for the interest rate cuts already delivered by the Federal Reserve and prompting traders to bet on the prospect of more to come.

On an annual basis, core CPI inflation rose just 2.6% year over year, while the consensus estimate was for 3%. It’s now at its lowest level since March 2021.

Core CPI inflation increased from 0.159% from November relative to September.

(October data collection for this series was marred by the government shutdown.)

Analysts warned that this lack of data, and decisions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on how to handle it, muddied the water for this inflation print and overstate how much price pressures moderated.

“The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October,” wrote Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights. “I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero.”

Nonetheless, that on its own is not enough to account for the magnitude of how much inflation cooled. Traders expect that this softer-than-expected inflation may provide more scope for the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate again soon as the unemployment rate creeps higher.

Event contracts show that the likelihood of the US central bank reducing its policy rate in January rose from about 25% to above 30% following this release.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

“The November CPI report suggests that a loosening labor market and moderating wage growth, combined with limited pass-through of tariffs and moderating shelter costs, are finally corralling inflation,” Bank of Montreal economist Sal Guatieri wrote. “The FOMC will take much comfort from the report, allowing it to focus on addressing the weakness in labor markets.”

The Federal Reserve, for what it’s worth, prefers to track core PCE inflation as an underlying gauge of price pressures, but many elements in the CPI also go into that metric, as well.

Over the past 30 years, annual core CPI inflation has run about 40 basis points hotter than core PCE.

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That would make its OpenAI stake more than the market value of chip designer’s entire portfolio of publicly traded stocks (a little over $15 billion, assuming no changes since their most recent filings).

Media reports have suggested that Amazon and SoftBank would be contributing even more to this oft-discussed funding round, in which the Sam Altman-led venture is aiming to raise $100 billion.

It’s a fairly happy ending after the two sides traded barbs in the press over the past few days, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had privately questioned the “lack of discipline” in the ChatGPT maker’s business approach, while sources told Reuters that OpenAI was “unsatisfied” by the performance of Nvidia’s AI chips and seeking alternatives.

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Chipotle reported earnings results that beat Wall Street estimates, but gave underwhelming full-year guidance.

For the last three months of 2025, Chipotle reported:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.25, compared to the $0.24 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting.

  • Revenue of $3 billion, a bit higher than the $2.9 billion the Street was penciling in.

  • A comparable-store sales decline of 2.5%, less than the 2.9% decline the Street was expecting.

For the full year in 2026, Chipotle expects:

  • Comparable-store sales to be flat, compared to the 1.7% growth analysts were expecting.

Chipotle has struggled to spark sales over the past year and has previously cited strained consumers as a major headwind. The company fell more than 9% in after-hours trading shortly after the report was released.

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Take-Two raises its net bookings outlook, reaffirms November release for “Grand Theft Auto 6”

“Grand Theft Auto” and “NBA 2K” maker Take-Two reported results for its fiscal third quarter on Tuesday. Its shares climbed about 4% in after-hours trading.

The company posted net bookings, or the amount customers spent on its products, of $1.76 billion, up 28% from the same quarter last year. Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.58 billion. In November, Take-Two guided for Q3 net bookings of between $1.55 billion and $1.6 billion.

Take-Two hiked its full-year bookings outlook to between $6.65 billion and $6.7 billion, up from a range of $6.4 billion to $6.5 billion. The new outlook compares to Wall Street’s $6.47 billion estimate. The gaming giant trimmed its full-year net loss guidance to between $369 million and $338 million (prior guidance: between $414 million and $349 million).

In its last quarter, Take-Two pushed back the planned release date of “Grand Theft Auto 6” from May 2026 to November 19, 2026. The company reaffirmed that date in Tuesday’s report. The game’s last trailer came in May 2025.

Shares of Take-Two and other major gaming companies have been sinking since late last week as investors react to early showcases of Google’s Project Genie, which allows users to generate interactive, “playable” worlds with a text or image prompt. As of Tuesday’s close, Take-Two has shed nearly $6 billion in market cap since Project Genie was released.

Analysts have called the market reaction unjustified, saying that the tool doesn’t allow for meaningful interactivity or replay-ability. According to mBank analyst Piotr Poniatowski, Project Genie is — at the moment — essentially a “one-minute-long walking simulator generator.”

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