Markets

US stocks set more records on trade progress

A quarter that started with US stocks falling out of bed ended with the S&P 500 booking a double-digit gain amid more signs of progress on agreements that may help avoid trade wars flaring up again.

The benchmark US stock index booked another record close with a 0.5% gain, as did the Nasdaq 100 with a 0.6% advance. The Russell 2000 inched 0.1% higher.

Every S&P 500 sector ETF gained outside of consumer discretionary, energy, and materials, with tech and financials leading the way higher.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise paced the S&P 500’s gains, closing up 11% after the Department of Justice officially cleared its $14 billion Juniper Networks acquisition.

Apple popped 2% on reports that the iPhone maker is considering using OpenAI or Anthropic to power its Siri AI assistant.

Palantir shares were up 4% after the retail favorite announced a partnership with Accenture Federal Services centering on the company’s growing AI software business.

Robinhood Markets jumped nearly 13% after the company announced plans to extend its crypto offerings, including launching tokenized versions of US stocks and ETFs for EU customers.

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Moderna rose as much as 5% before closing at a 1.6% gain after the pharma giant announced positive results for its experimental flu vaccine.

Oracle rose 4% after the tech giant disclosed a new $30 billion contract and backed its 2026 guidance in a morning regulatory filing.

AppLovin popped almost 5% after UBS hiked its price target for the ad tech company to $540 from $475 — well above the average analyst price target of $467.

Plug Power soared 28% after new provisions to the Senate’s tax bill proposed extending green hydrogen production credit an additional two years.

Cava shares were up 8.2% after the popular Mediterranean food chain saw a wave of afternoon bullish options activity.

Shares of wholesale supplier GMS jumped nearly 12% after Home Depot announced a $4.3 billion takeover, sharpening its pivot toward professional contractors.

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Chip stocks post record outperformance of software companies in never-before-seen divergence

One session in 2026 brings one thing we’ve never seen before in markets: a massive divergence between the two big parts of the technology sector.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF absolutely trounced the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF today, with the former gaining 3.7% leaving while the latter dropped 2.9%.

The 6.6-percentage point gap is the biggest outperformance for SMH versus IGV on record, going back to December 2011.

Since these two are both parts of a broader technology whole, it’s rare to have one up a ton while the other gets shellacked. The rolling one-year correlation of daily returns for these two ETFs was about 0.8 heading into today.

There have been only three sessions (including today) where the chip stock ETF was up at least 1.5% while the software ETF was down 1.5% or more. We’ve never seen SMH gain 2% while IGV fell 2% before Friday’s session. And there’s been only one session where the reverse happened (November 11, 2024).

The opening trading day of 2026 was phenomenal for the AI picks and shovels trade, while very poor for their more downstream peers.

How and why did this happen? Who knows really, but this looks like the kind of thing where a couple major funds decide to keep their total AI exposure stable but lean into a hardware-over-software tilt when adjusting their positioning at the start of the year, which kicks off intraday momentum that forces everyone else along for the ride.

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AI downstream stocks tumble even as their picks and shovels peers soar

While the AI picks and shovels stocks are enjoying a strong start to 2026, the same can’t be said for the companies more downstream in this theme — even most of the hyperscalers.

The S&P 500’s biggest losers today include:

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