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VF Corp. and Canada Goose climb higher on Baird upgrades as key fall shopping season kicks off

Analysts say a refreshed Vans playbook and buzzy Goose collections could fuel momentum during the back-to-school stretch.

Nia Warfield

Baird analysts are shopping for opportunities this season, upgrading VF Corp. and Canada Goose ahead of the crucial fall shopping stretch as brand refreshes, consumer buzz, and easing headwinds build optimism.

VF Corp.
Price target: $20, up from $14
Rating: “outperform” (from “neutral”)

VF Corp. shares jumped 5.6% after Baird upgraded the Vans and The North Face parent, betting the company is turning a corner. Analysts pointed to easing self-inflicted headwinds at Vans, which had been dragging results for several quarters. New product cycles, high-profile marketing moves (including an upcoming collection from singer SZA), and faster inventory resets could help the skate brand get back in step with younger shoppers.

At the same time, cost cutting and debt reduction are expected to shore up profitability, while The North Face remains a steady performer in outdoor wear. Tariffs are still a cloud, with VF estimating duties could slice roughly $40 million off fiscal 2025 profits, but Baird says the stock’s 50% drop from highs already reflects the risk and leaves more room for upside if the Vans reset pays off.

Canada Goose
Price target: CA$24, up from CA$18
Rating: “outperform” (from “neutral”)

Canada Goose shares climbed 5.9% after Baird also boosted its outlook for the outerwear company, citing a strong start to the year and signs of brand traction ahead of peak winter buying. Direct-to-consumer comps rose nearly 15% last quarter, powered by new spring and summer offerings, a hit Snow Goose capsule, and better in-store execution. Analysts also highlighted the brand’s expanding presence in China, where livestream shopping is giving it another leg up with luxury consumers.

Still, margins have been weighed down by heavy investment in marketing and brand refreshes. But Baird argues that with Goose still trading well below its 52-week highs, a combination of fresher product, improving seasonal leverage, and potential takeover interest will boost the company’s shares.

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Shares of several major automakers with large footprints in China sank on Friday following President Trump’s threats to massively increase tariffs on goods from China in response to what he called “hostile” export controls.

Chinese EV titans like BYD, Nio, and XPeng plunged after Trump’s Truth Social post, along with automakers like Tesla and Stellantis that heavily rely on revenue from sales in the country.

EV makers like Rivian and Lucid, which source raw materials and or batteries from China, were also down following the post.

The move comes at a rocky time for US automakers, with the end of the EV tax credit expected to heavily ding sales for the rest of the year.

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Rare earth stocks spike after Trump says China should not be allowed to hold the world “captive” on rare earths

Shares of rare earth metal producers soared Friday after the president published a Truth Social statement decrying what he describes as Chinese efforts to control the pipeline of the sought-after minerals.

Companies such as MP Materials — which the US government recently took a stake in — USA Rare Earth, and Critical Metals jumped, suggesting investor bets that the the administration could play a bigger role in ensuring US access to rare earths.

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

Companies such as MP Materials — which the US government recently took a stake in — USA Rare Earth, and Critical Metals jumped, suggesting investor bets that the the administration could play a bigger role in ensuring US access to rare earths.

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US stocks sink after Trump says he’s considering a “massive increase” of tariffs on Chinese imports

More tariffs might be back on the menu.

US stocks reversed lower after US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that he is considering a “massive increase” on tariffs of Chinese imports.

Trump said he’s mulling higher levies as well as “many other countermeasures” because of “the hostile ‘order’ that they have just put out” restricting the export of rare earth metals. He also seemingly canceled his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea in two weeks, saying “now there seems to be no reason to do so.”

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, Invesco QQQ Trust, and iShares Russell 2000 ETF all gave up early gains to fall more than 1%. A basket of stocks compiled by Goldman Sachs of US companies that have significant revenue exposure to China is off more than 2%.

Wafer fab equipment stocks Lam Research, Applied Materials, and KLA Corp, which all count China as their top market, are underperforming, as is iPhone seller Apple.

Chip stocks Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, Broadcom, and Nvidia are all getting hit on the news, as rare earths are needed components for semiconductor production. For Tesla, it’s a similar story given its footprint in China and the importance of rare earths for EVs.

There’s also a lot of plain old dumping of recent winners.

Super Micro Computer, Coinbase, and Robinhood Markets are among the biggest laggards since Trump’s post as investors cut risk.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

The rare earth curbs are far from the only recent example of China stepping up its defense of domestic industry and resources. Qualcomm is the subject of an antitrust investigation, stringent checks of semiconductor shipments are reportedly in place as officials look to keep Nvidia’s chips from entering the country, and separate reporting indicates that US ships will be charged an escalating fee for docking at Chinese ports.

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