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Visualizing why yesterday’s stock market reversal was so weird and unnerving

Technically, America’s flagship stock market index is only ~5% away from all-time highs. But an excellent observation from Sherwood’s Markets Editor leant a bit of perspective on why yesterday’s remarkable stock market reversal feels so much more unnerving than it might look on paper.

Mostly, it’s down to the fact that what most people expected to feel like a party that raged long into the night — Nvidia did everything right, blowing the lights out on earnings and answering its harshest critics — was shut down at 8pm. Then the house caught on fire.

Here’s every single day of the S&P 500 Index from the last decade to give some more context on how unusual yesterday’s intraday swing was.

Nvidia did everything right. It pulled it off. It passed the test. But, at about 10:45 a.m. ET yesterday, the market decided it didn’t care.

Mostly, it’s down to the fact that what most people expected to feel like a party that raged long into the night — Nvidia did everything right, blowing the lights out on earnings and answering its harshest critics — was shut down at 8pm. Then the house caught on fire.

Here’s every single day of the S&P 500 Index from the last decade to give some more context on how unusual yesterday’s intraday swing was.

Nvidia did everything right. It pulled it off. It passed the test. But, at about 10:45 a.m. ET yesterday, the market decided it didn’t care.

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Gap rises as Q3 sales beat expectations following viral denim ad campaign

US-based apparel maker Gap is up 4% in early trading on Friday after posting better-than-expected Q3 results after the bell on Thursday.

The clothing and accessories retailer reported comparable sales rising 5% in the third quarter — the strongest growth that it’s seen since its 2017 holiday quarter, per CNBC — surpassing Wall Street’s forecast of 3.1%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Adjusted EPS came in at $0.62, some ~6% ahead of consensus expectations. The company also hiked its sales guidance for the year, and now expects revenue to grow 1.7% to 2% (up from 1% to 2%).

markets

US stocks just suffered one of their most stunning reversals in 32 years

Only four times in the more than 32-year history of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has the fund opened at least 1.5% higher only to end the session down 1.5% or more.

And one of those days was today, with early enthusiasm over Nvidia’s strong earnings report turning into a wave of selling as speculative assets, chief among them bitcoin, cratered and dragged everything down with them. The S&P 500’s winners in particular saw heavy selling. Among the 15 stocks in the index that are up at least 70% year to date, the average performance on Thursday was down 5.6%.

The other occasions where US stocks have suffered such a violent turnabout:

April 8 of this year (the bottom, year to date!), when the White House said tariffs on China were going up to above 100%, kneecapping a nascent bounce-back attempt after a 10% drubbing in the three days after the Rose Garden tariff announcements. President Donald Trump would go on to announce that he was slashing reciprocal tariffs for 90 days the following session.

And the other two such instances both occurred in October 2008 (on the 7th and the 9th), as the fallout from the unfolding financial crisis was spreading after the prior month’s collapse of Lehman Brothers and the VIX Index, Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge,” was routinely above 50, making immense volatility par for the course.

markets

Insurance against Oracle default becomes favorite AI-bust hedge, Bloomberg reports

Volume in the market for credit default swaps — essentially a kind of insurance against a company defaulting on its debts — on Oracle is surging as the company has supercharged its borrowing to finance its AI ambitions, Bloomberg’s Caleb Mutua reports:

“The price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years tripled in recent months to as high as about 1.11 percentage point a year on Wednesday, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected, according to ICE Data Services.

As AI skeptics rushed in, trading volume on the company’s CDS ballooned to about $5 billion over the seven weeks ended Nov. 14, according to Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from a little more than $200 million in the same period last year.”

“The price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years tripled in recent months to as high as about 1.11 percentage point a year on Wednesday, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected, according to ICE Data Services.

As AI skeptics rushed in, trading volume on the company’s CDS ballooned to about $5 billion over the seven weeks ended Nov. 14, according to Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from a little more than $200 million in the same period last year.”

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