Markets
Screaming Man
Screaming man

War has pushed global markets into the danger zone

Correlations within the US stock market and between asset classes are rising.

Luke Kawa

Low correlations have been one of the dominant features of this bull market.

That is, the S&P 500’s heavyweights have tended to march to the beat of their own drummers, despite seemingly having a common critical success factor (whether their AI spending binges will pay off). Low correlations help tamp down volatility at the index level — when one stock is down, another’s up. When volatility is suppressed, there are fewer scary daily drawdowns that inspire panic and send the index screaming even lower.

Tuesday’s rout is the most meaningful challenge to the low-correlation environment that’s been reestablished over the past few months. And that’s not only true for what’s within the stock market, but also between different asset classes.

There’s nowhere to hide (except the US dollar, really). This is poised to be the first session since February 27, 2025, in which the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and iShares Bitcoin Trust are down at least 1% with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF also negative.

There have only been five sessions like this since IBIT’s inception in early 2024.

One-month correlations — the extent to which the S&P 500’s constituents are expected to move in the same direction, derived from options prices — are spiking, on track for their highest close since November 20 (the Q4 bottom for US stocks).

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GameStop pops as Q1 revenue, profit rise and retailer authorizes $2 billion of stock buybacks

GameStop shares popped after hours, as the company authorized a $2 billion stock buyback and posted a blockbuster fiscal first-quarter profit aided by unrealized gains on its options exposure to eBay stock

Here are the numbers from the retail-trader favorite: 

  • Adjusted EPS of $0.30, up from $0.17 a year earlier and above the $0.16 estimate of… precisely one analyst.

  • Revenue of $835.3 million, up 14% from a year earlier.

  • A $2 billion stock-buyback authorization, which is equivalent to about one-fifth of the company’s market cap.

  • A whopping $268 million unrealized gain because of its options exposure to eBay stock that it bought as it attempted to buy the online retailer. That led to a record quarterly net income of $389.6 million.

  • The highest first-quarter operating income ever, at $143.3 million – a number not aided by the gain in eBay stock, but rather by higher revenue and improved margins. 

Shares rose 7.1% after hours.

The buyback authorization is a particularly interesting development for GameStop, which less than two years ago issued billions of dollars worth of shares as it took advantage of surging stock prices. 

Of course, it’s worth noting that the buyback authorization can be used piecemeal fashion for the next three years, so any potential buybacks don’t have to happen anytime soon — or at all.

markets

GitLab shares soar on earnings and revenue beat

Shares of GitLab soared over 8% in after-hours trading after the company’s quarterly results beat analyst expectations for earnings and revenue.

For FY2027 Q1, the code development and security platform posted:

  • Revenues of $264.2 million (estimate: $254 million).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.23 (estimate: $0.21).

In a press release, GitLab CEO Bill Staples wrote, “The agentic era is creating structural tailwinds for GitLab, and Q1 showed it clearly with accelerating platform activity and promising traction from GitLab Duo Agent Platform.”

As AI eats the software development world, platforms for human coders like GitLab are facing some existential threats. Last month, GitLab shares dropped after it announced a restructuring plan, slashing its country footprint by 30%, and today it confirmed that 350 team members would be cut. The company said it expects the restructing to be complete by the end of FY 2027.

Shares of GitLab were down about 15% year to date heading into the report.

markets

Nuclear stocks gain as federal officials approve plan to restart Three Mile Island

US officials have given Constellation Energy the green light to turn the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant back on.

On Monday night, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission filed a waiver allowing the company to transfer grid rights from a gas-fired power plant outside Philadelphia to Three Mile Island. The company says that due to the waiver, it aims to restart the nuclear power facility by 2027 in order to supply Microsoft data centers with energy.

Additionally, other nuclear stocks like Oklo, GE Vernova, Energy Fuels, and Cameco Corp. traded higher Tuesday afternoon.

This comes after last weeks Energy Department announcement that it would provide weapons-grade plutonium to five energy startups, including Oklo, to be processed into fuel to generate electricity.

Companies have said these weapons stockpiles are a way to get nuclear reactors fueled quickly as the industry scales.

markets

Victoria’s Secret jumps after posting surging sales and raising full-year outlook

Victoria’s Secret shares are up more than 40% in early trading after the apparel retailer delivered a strong Q1 earnings beat and substantially lifted its full-year guidance. It was a welcome win for the company as it officially changed its stock ticker symbol to VSXY from VSCO on the New York Stock Exchange.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.60 (compared to analyst estimates of $0.30).

  • Net sales of $1.56 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase (estimate: $1.52 billion).

  • Adjusted operating income of $80 million (estimate: $42 million).

Comparable sales rose 13% during the quarter, beating the estimated 12%. The company said double-digit growth was recorded across its Victoria’s Secret, PINK, and Beauty brands, as well as across stores and direct and international channels.

Buoyed by the strong momentum, management raised the retailer’s full-year guidance. Victoria’s Secret now projects full-year net sales to reach between $7.03 billion and $7.13 billion, up from a previous cap of $6.95 billion. Adjusted operating income is now anticipated to land between $550 million and $580 million, a jump from the previously projected range of $430 million to $460 million.

“Our customer responded strongly to our product innovation, emotionally resonant storytelling, and distinct brand projection, driving double-digit growth in new customer acquisition, increased regular-price selling, and broad-based strength across categories, channels, and geographies,” CEO Hillary Super said in a statement. “These results reflect the progress we are making against our Path to Potential strategy as we continue to strengthen customer connection, build brand heat, and drive sustainable long-term growth.”

The company’s “Path to Potential” transformation strategy was launched to right-track the business after a multiyear stretch of declining sales and cultural scrutiny. The changed ticker also signals a fresh corporate chapter under Super, who is steering the retailer through a major brand turnaround.

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