Markets
FRANCE-LA-CLUSAZ-OFF-PISTE-AVALANCHE-WARNING
Warning sign (Stéphane Mouchmouche/Getty Images)

Wedbush’s Dan Ives warns Trump’s new focus on household electricity bills risks “slowing down the data center buildouts” at a “crucial time”

Hyperscalers’ margins look well positioned to absorb some higher costs, but some have better trends than others.

Luke Kawa

Call it SophAI’s choice.

President Donald Trump is aiming to shield American households from one of the negative side effects of the AI boom — higher electricity prices — by calling on tech giants to “pay their own way.”

This call was quickly answered by Microsoft, which unveiled a “community-first AI infrastructure plan” that will see the company aim to privatize the financial impacts of its electricity demands on the grid, among other measures.

Wedbush Securities’ global head of technology research, Dan Ives, expects similar plans from other tech giants to “follow soon,” he said in a note to clients on Tuesday.

And that’s not necessarily good news to the analyst, who wrote:

“While this initiative alleviates a major headache from the Trump administration, this will create a larger bottleneck with big tech organizations looking to build out large data center footprints as quickly as possible without impacting the bottom-line with this potentially slowing down the data center buildouts with the US entering a crucial time of the AI Revolution with the US facing significant energy shortages/issues to fuel data center buildouts.”

In November, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said “China is going to win the AI race” because it has a more favorable regulatory environment and cheaper access to power.

Ives echoed these concerns amid this high-wire, highly wired balancing act by the US government and its leading tech companies.

“With China spending incrementally more across new and existing power technologies into 2030 putting greater pressure on the US to fuel its lofty AI ambitions, we believe this will be a continuous back and forth battle between Big Tech players and the Trump administration with data center buildouts an important aspect of fueling the AI Revolution over the coming years,” he wrote.

My colleague Rani Molla noted that Meta may be more negatively impacted by progress on any presidential ambitions to nudge tech companies to shoulder more of these energy costs. The social media company doesn’t have a cloud business, so its AI costs need to generate revenues that are a little more downstream (in advertising) than its high-spending peers.

Despite escalating depreciation charges, hyperscalers have largely seen their estimated profit margins continue to creep higher. These firms — or in particular, their cloud divisions — are much more profitable than the S&P 500 at large. But there’s one company that is bucking this trend: Meta, the only one of the cohort to see its projected profit margin fall since the end of 2024.

We once again present this trilemma, inspired by Signum Global Advisors’ George Pollack, for your consideration:

Trump AI trilemma

More Markets

See all Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

BlackBerry is on one of its hottest rallies of all time

History suggests that BlackBerry does extremely well when 1) it’s considered to be pioneering a transformative technology, or 2) there’s widespread retail enthusiasm for stocks.

If you squint (or dream), you could argue that both are going on right now.

Shares of the once-upon-a-time smartphone giant are up more than 160% over the past three months. The only times the shares have had a hotter run of form than this are at the tail end of the dot-com bubble, and in early 2021 when was it part of the meme stock craze headlined by GameStop.

Let’s start with the easy part first — here’s Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel, on retail’s significant footprint in the shares’ rally:

“Retail traders are the new price setters in the market. May volumes across our retail cash equities and options platforms are currently tracking at record levels. Daily volumes on our cash platform are setting new highs and are on pace to finish nearly ~10% above the previous record established during the January 2021 meme-stock era.”

And then there’s the harder part, part of the story that the traders bidding up BlackBerry now are dreaming about: the QNX division, which offers software that the company is positioning as an operating system for robots.

QNX’s software has early uptake in the field of autonomous driving, with BlackBerry eyeing a much more widespread role: in April, it announced a partnership to deploy this technology on Nvidia’s robotics platform. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, for his part, has long been calling for agentic AI adoption to be followed by physical AI (i.e., robots).

In a QNX press release unveiling a report this week, the company argued that software, not hardware, is the real problem in terms of making sure robotics works.

I supposed it would be poetic, in a way, if the company at the leading edge of the smartphone revolution also plays a big role in the proliferation of robotics.

markets
Luke Kawa

Micron and Sandisk rally on new Street-high price targets from Susquehanna

Micron and Sandisk both hit fresh all-time highs in early trading after Susquehanna bestowed new Wall Street-high price targets on the two memory stocks.

Analyst Mehdi Hosseini upped his view on the former to $1,750 from $600, and to $3,250 from $2,000 for the latter.

“Supply is now expected to remain tight through 2027, sustaining elevated margins and thus warranting valuation re-rating,” he wrote, per Bloomberg.

It’s the fifth time in the past year that the average price target on Micron has gone up by more than 10% in a week. UBS’s Tim Arcuri more than tripled his price target on Micron earlier this week, and has already lost the title of “most bullish.”

But even as analysts are tripping over themselves to raise their price targets on these stocks, the ferocity of the rally in Micron has outpaced their best efforts.

The high-bandwidth memory specialist traded at a record premium to the consensus Wall Street price target this week, based on data going back to 2008.

markets

Okta soars on Q1 earnings beat, raised outlook driven by AI security demand

Okta shares are surging in early trading Friday after the identity security provider posted Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The strong results are fueled by accelerating corporate demand for cybersecurity software, as well as the deployment of autonomous AI systems.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 compared to analysts estimate of $0.85.

  • Revenue of $765 million compared to an estimate of $752.7 million.

The company generated subscription revenue of $750 million, up 11% year over year. Okta also has $271 million in free cash flow, up from $238 million in the prior years quarter.

While standard cybersecurity software protects human workers, the latest catalyst sparking Oktas strong corporate performance is the rapid emergence of autonomous AI agents that can access sensitive corporate databases and interact with privileged executive accounts.

“AI agents are rapidly becoming a new workforce inside every organization, creating a wave of identities that must be secured and governed alongside human users,” said Todd McKinnon, CEO and cofounder of Okta. “We’re expanding our opportunity as the world’s leading independent and neutral identity provider and helping customers make identity the unified control plane for their secure agentic enterprise.”

Okta raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to between $3.185 billion and $3.205 billion, roughly in line with estimates of $3.18 billion. The company formally dropped its long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate from 26% down to 21%. This adjustment is a direct byproduct of the federal corporate tax frameworks under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Shares of Okta have risen around 9% since the beginning of this year.

markets

HPE, SMCI surge after Dell’s Q1 beat on strong AI server demand

HP Enterprise and Super Micro Computer shares are surging in premarket trading, getting a big boost from rival Dell’s strong Q1 results.

Dell’s $16.1 billion in AI-optimized server sales for the quarter alone proved that enterprise data center demand is accelerating faster than Wall Street had anticipated. The company posted revenue of $43.8 billion, exceeding Street estimates of $35.5 billion. Management now sees full-year sales of about $167 billion, well above the $142 billion expected by analysts.

The read-through is particularly relevant for Super Micro, one of the largest suppliers of Nvidia-powered AI server systems, and HPE, which has been expanding its AI infrastructure and liquid-cooling offerings through its partnership with Nvidia.

The moves suggest investors view AI infrastructure as a broad spending cycle that benefits server makers across the entire ecosystem.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC and Chartr Limited produce fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and are fully owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Money, LLC, Robinhood U.K. Ltd, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, Robinhood Gold, LLC, Robinhood Asset Management, LLC, Robinhood Credit, Inc., Robinhood Ventures DE, LLC and, where applicable, its managed investment vehicles.