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What to look for in Microsoft’s Q3 earnings report today

Like its peers, the company’s cloud business and capital expenditure will be scrutinized.

Jon Keegan

Today Microsoft will report its Q3 earnings after the bell. All eyes will be on its Azure cloud business revenue growth, and on the lookout for any clues about what a revised partnership with OpenAI might mean for Microsoft’s finances.

Last quarter, after the company reported its second-quarter earnings, its stock dropped to its lowest point since 2020 on fears that the company had too many of its cloud computing eggs in one basket — its partner OpenAI. Microsoft shares are down about 12% in 2026.

But this week, things have changed. Microsoft and OpenAI announced that they revised the terms of their $13 billion partnership. Microsoft will no longer have exclusive access to OpenAI’s models, and it will also no longer have to make revenue-sharing payments. OpenAI will still share revenue with Microsoft until 2030, or when they reach a cap.

Investors will be looking to see how the company plans to invigorate its Copilot AI offerings. Microsoft is reportedly working to remake Copilot in the image of the popular OpenClaw open-source AI agent. Microsoft is also turning to Anthropic’s Claude to power its Copilot Cowork AI agent tool. Reports say that rebooting Copilot with advanced AI capabilities is a top priority.

Here’s what a consensus of FactSet analysts are expecting for some key figures:

  • Overall revenue: ⬆️ to $81.4 billion.

  • Intelligent cloud (Azure, server products): ⬆️ to $34.27 billion.

  • Capital expenditure: ⬇️ to $27.5 billion.

  • Earnings per share: ⬇️ to $4.05.

  • Azure revenue growth: ⬆️ to 39.7%.

Microsoft will report earnings after the bell.

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Chicago Bulls player Michael Jordan is surrounded by NBA Championship trophies after his team defeated the Utah Jazz 90-86 to win the 1997 NBA Finals at the United Center in Chicago, IL.

Stock climb on US-Iran peace deal; semiconductors rally

This morning, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war.

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Intel surges after Trump announces US chip deal with Apple

Intel is soaring in early trading after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with the semiconductor giant to design and manufacture its chips domestically.

President Trump positioned the agreement as the latest victory for his administration’s industrial policy after the federal government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel last year.

"Stupid Presidents took our Economy for granted, and let Taiwan and others steal our Semiconductor Factories," Trump wrote in the post. "We design everything, but we need to BUILD it here, NOW! So I decided to help Intel because we need to design and build our Chips right here in America... and, finally, Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America."

Intel reportedly reached a preliminary agreement back in May to manufacture chips for the Apple, which has been facing supply constraints for its iPhone as well other products. The deal could help Apple reduce its reliance on longtime partner TSMC by bringing more of its chip manufacturing stateside.

"This partnership helps Apple with chip development and manufacturing on US soil with greater focus on reducing dependence on Asian manufacturing facilities." Wedbush's Dan Ives commented in a company report. He has a $400 price target for Apple this year.

The timing aligns with Intel's technical roadmap. Earlier this week, Intel confirmed that its advanced, performance-boosted 18A-P process node officially entered its risk production phase. This move serves as a blueprint for both Intel chips and processors the company plans to build for foundry customers.

“The current capacity crunch is probably emboldening customers to give Intel a harder look at this stage than perhaps they might ordinarily be inclined to do as the prospect of more advanced capacity will take on higher value in a constrained environment,” wrote Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “We are sure that Trump’s encouragement is at least not going to hurt though.”

Momentum was built around Intel Foundry services as surging global AI demand continuously outpaced capacity. Earlier this month, Google reportedly placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million of its increasingly popular tensor processing unit chips in 2028. According to the report, Nvidia is also testing to see if Intel could manufacture its next-gen Feynman chips.

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Stocks rise after US, Iran sign peace plan

Stocks rose Thursday morning after President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, in another sign that a months-long war that caused energy prices to spike could be coming to an end.

Trump signed the MOU before a dinner in Versailles, France on Wednesday evening. The president previously announced that a deal had been reached on Sunday evening, saying that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume and that the US naval blockade would be lifted.

The deal comes after both sides exchanged attacks last week, escalating tensions to some of the highest levels since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February.

The price of Brent Crude ticked even lower after dropping on Sunday, sitting at about $76 a barrel. Oil giants like Shell, Chevron and Exxon fell on the news, as average gas prices in the US dropped below $4 for the first time in months.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Last week, inflation readings for May showed both wholesale inflation and consumer prices rose in large part because of higher energy costs.

Signs of the peace deal have also lead to buying of momentum stocks this week. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFrose another 1.46% in premarket trading.

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